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- Jul 8, 2007
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No you cannot. I don't know who's gonna win.
Tarec's chin terrifies me. The Korean guy had him badly hurt in r5, McDonald shut him down with a two punch combo and he is not known for his punch power. Ellenberger had him hurt bad twice including right at the end of r3 which a lot of people didn't seem to realise. However, Story is not known for his punch power he only has four KO wins and to be fair to Tarec, Ellenberger and the Korean guy are powerhouses and Rory is the only person to stop Tarec with strikes.
I don't normally go big on prop plays but it is very tempting for me to go big on Tarec decision at what will be + odds. Story has never been KO'd and Tarec only has one TKO win. Story has been out over 18 months and Tarec is the more technical striker. This is a close fight but I will definitely be laying a decent sized bet on Tarec decision.
Story is not known for his punch power
Do you guys think that Story can close the distance on Saffiedine? I think so but the lay off concerns me.
Story one of those guys I hate to watch because referees love to let him stall out fights. He's a very good tactical guy when it comes down to draping over your back or in your guard landing knees to the thighs or whatever kinda like how Benson does (moreso now that he's @ mmalab). For that reason you see a lot of split decisions on Rick's record.
I'm also considering a decision play but I don't know who's gonna win this fight. Tarec I don't think has ever faced a southpaw in his MMA career unless someone can point one out. But Tarec is also a very comfortable switch stance fighter so I'm sure it shouldn't be a huge issue. He needs to really drill his footwork and movement to keep his back off the cage where story does his best work in dirty boxing. If he starts to land a few of his patented leg kicks, he should be able to wear out Story who plants his feet heavy when he throws. A couple of good timed kicks will slow anyone down.
Story has good power but he doesn't seem to finish a lot of guys I'm not sure why it doesn't translate into KO's. He goes to the body as good as anyone does and he goes low/high but he's very likely to go back to his stall tactics when the opportunity is there.
Man I'm predicting a split here. I wish the over wasn't so juiced. Neither prop has any value either. Tarec's ML is -135 while his prop is +150. I'll wait to see if anything shakes out because it can't get any worse than it is now
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The over/under for Masvidal/Larkin is atrocious as well. While I likely see it going the distance too, no one should be playing that line at -255. No value in either guy by decision. I think all of these lines mentioned will probably get better by fight day.
Edit: Ayy @EzFlyer wit the blue tag
thoughts on Story +3.5 when that line's available?
thoughts on Story +3.5 when that line's available?
really? ah nvm thengonna be like -200
really? ah nvm then
full props
it's a tough fight to bet. maybe just the over and be done w/it.. or idk what.
story NSC? when that's out...
new lines on 5d:
mcmann -175
eye +135
(o2.5 -230)
trujillo -305
rinaldo +225
(o1.5 -150)
uda -150
collier +110
(o1.5 -160)
koch -125
campbell -115
(o1.5 -180)
milstead -245
de la rocha +175
(u1.5 -210)
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absolutely love campbell's line. maxing that.
think i like jessica eye, too... hrmmm
no idea who milstead or uda are.... wow @ uda being favored over collier in his debut...