1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »
  2. Hey Guest, The Non Gif Shoop Contest Round 1 is now active, so cast your votes! Non Gif Shoop Contest Round 1 »

UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 31, 2016.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. TrevorLahey Banned Banned

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    2,508
    Likes Received:
    213
    Location:
    Canada
    This is one of the reasons I think the welterweight division is the best in the UFC. This match up could very easily be a title fight, I don't have any idea what's going to happen or who should be favoured but that's the best thing about this division.
     
  2. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2007
    Messages:
    11,755
    Likes Received:
    3,370
    Location:
    LONG BEACH CITY
    I can understand reasons why OAM won't hit the sub but I don't see how playing OAM winning by decision is an option.

    I'm the guy that drove that opening o2.5 (+125) down to whatever it is now.
     
  3. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    Why wouldn't it be an option? OAM sub and decision seem like the clear plays, and now that the over is at + odds OAM dec will have value for sure I think. Unless i'm missing something with Gouti i'm pretty surprised. OAM is the furthest thing from a killer, is his jits really that much better?
     
  4. Fig4threadlock White Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2015
    Messages:
    83
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think so,Hendricks couldn't keep Wonderboy down and I'm sure his striking is better than Rory's. Rory kind of relies on his length for offense but he still gets hit alot.
     
  5. CleverNameEh All out of bubblegum

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2013
    Messages:
    10,956
    Likes Received:
    2,864
    Location:
    Up in this biiitch
    Rory. I dare say inside the distance as well.

    I feel like it's fairly even with a slight lean towards Rory, but there are a few x-factors.

    1) Is Rory the same mentally after that Lawler fight?
    &
    2) Will thompson be able to handle a striker of his equal, especially without having the height and reach advantage that he's used to?
    &
    3) Does Thompson have anything to offer defensively (or offensively) if it ends up on the ground in a scramble.

    As long as Rory isn't damaged and/or gunshy now, i think his experience is going to be the big difference here. Even if Thompson is successful early, and he may very well be, Rory should be able to hurt him or pressure him at some point, and from there I think Thompson will fold and Rory will take over.

    Unless Thompson can hurt Rory and capitalize early, i don't think he has much of a chance other than MAYBE out pointing him if he's not pulling the trigger.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,847
    Likes Received:
    6,762
    I honestly don't know what to tell you if you think Rory is an "equal" striker to Wonderboy. He's...just not. It's not really even that close. Rory is solid. Has decent kicks, a nice jab. But he's just levels below Wonderboy. Timing, accuracy, power, ability to gauge and use distance, creativity, speed, all are advantages for Wonderboy.

    It's not that there's no path to victory for Rory, there is. But Thompson isn't going to have to handle any strikers that are his equal at WW, because they don't exist. Nor do they at MW most likely.

    Again, that's not to say Wonderboy can't lose this or other fights. But if Rory is content with a striking match here and doesn't try to grind, clinch, take WB down etc. he's gonna get pieced up.

    The real questions in this fight are actually:

    1. Can Rory close distance effectively to make this a dirty fight without getting his face caved in? Can he make it ugly?

    2. If Rory does take Wonderboy down, how long (if at all) does it take Wonderboy to get up? Can Rory control him on the mat for long stretches, and can he do damage there?

    3. (This is similar to your #1). Is the trajectory real? Wonderboy obviously looks like his is skyrocketing after a string of wins including a signature win over a top ranked WW. His confidence is at an all time high and confidence can be a great asset if channeled properly. Rory's is flat but it may just not be that he's mentally still affected by the Robbie fight. That type of war takes a real physical toll.

    I honestly don't think Rory will have an answer against a superior striker. I think he'll be looking for ways to get inside and ends up getting caught and put away at some point.
     
  7. null Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    16,361
    Likes Received:
    0
    I like some of the openers today:

    Patrick Cote (+150) vs Donald Cerrone $100.00 for $150.00
    Patrick Cote wins by 3 round decision (+260) $50.00 for $130.00
    Steve Bosse (-160) vs Sean O'Connell $160.00 for $100.00
    Valerie Letourneau (-150) vs Joanne Calderwood $150.00 for $100.00
    Valerie Letourneau (-155) vs Joanne Calderwood $155.00 for $100.00
    Jason Saggo (-160) vs Leandro Silva $160.00 for $100.00
    Tamdan McCrory (-165) vs Krzysztof Jotko $165.00 for $100.00
    Chris Beal (+100) vs Joe Soto $200.00 for $200.00
    Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (+140) vs Randa Markos $100.00 for $140.00
    Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (+125) vs Randa Markos $200.00 for $250.00
     
  8. CleverNameEh All out of bubblegum

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2013
    Messages:
    10,956
    Likes Received:
    2,864
    Location:
    Up in this biiitch
    I should should have worded it differently regarding their striking. Thompson does appear to be the better striker, but i don't think it's as big a gap as you suggest, merely different styles of striking. My point was was more that Thompson will be facing a quality striker without the reach advantage that he's used to.

    Sure his striking is fantastic, but he hasn't used it against the same level of competition as Rory has, so we don't know if he can actually apply that striking against a top notch opponent yet. Not to say he can't, be we haven't confirmed it yet. He sure smoked Hendricks, but again, he had massive reach. It's easier to utilize your outside striking game like he does when he has the size advantage. Against Rory he won't have it.

    I think Rory may shock you here. I think he's been in the gym like a maniac and he's going to show his technique and experience. Unless he shows hesitancy from the damage he took from lawler, i think he will throw Thompson off of his desired gameplan with pressure, damage on the inside, and a good mix of striking and takedowns. Once Thompson gets frustrated or slows down, Rory will TKO him.
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    39,847
    Likes Received:
    6,762
    You have to keep in mind (and yes, granted, there of course are huge differences in kickboxing and MMA) that Wonderboy is a world champion kickboxer. He's fought elite kickboxers with equal or great reach and beaten them. Hendricks has obviously been in the cage against the best in the world. GSP, Robbie, Condit and never did he look so thoroughly outclassed (or even in the same area code of being outclassed) as he did vs Wonderboy. Somehow his reach didn't matter vs those other elite WW's, so I don't think it was a big factor vs Wonderboy either. What killed him was the power, accuracy, and timing of Wonderboy's striking.

    Now, I agree that Rory poses a different set of challenges. He's good at sitting behind his jab. He mixes in kicks well. He keeps his hands high (at least when he's not tired) and is certainly an above average striker. Add in that (as we've both said) he will mix in takedowns and clinching and you get a top 5 WW.

    But I think he's going to have problems navigating the distance. Wonderboy is exceptional at using and gauging distance, along with anticipating where his target will be. And what makes him truly special (and I think I'd maybe put Yair Rodriguez as another guy that fits this bill) is that he does it well enough that his spinning attacks and more unpredictable moves are also very accurate. He generates power with fluidity, not by loading up on his strikes.

    I think you're right in that Rory needs to try to pressure Wonderboy. Staying at kicking range is going to get him put to sleep most likely. But again, the problem is coming forward like that is so dangerous given Wonderboy's accuracy and timing.

    Also, Wonderboy might show some serious improvement on the mat if it goes there. He obviously has a good work ethic and aptitude, and seeing as how Carlos Machado is his brother in law it would be hard to imagine him not picking up a few things in the bjj dept LOL.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2016
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    coinflip imo..
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    i think WB slows down in general.. i swear he was slowing before the burger KO..
     
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    16,204
    Likes Received:
    1,942
    "In general," as if Wonderboy has shown several instances of slowing down.

    Here's the Wonderboy vs. Ellenberger fight if you want to watch it: http://www.ufc.tv/video/stephen-thompson-vs-jake-ellenberger-tuf-21-finale

    From what I saw, Wonderboy starts the fight with an extra bounce, then he gets dropped by a right hand, then recovers, then clinches and pushes the fight to the cage where he grinds Ellenberger a bit before failing at a single leg TD. Shortly after, they go back to the middle of the cage and Ellenberger gets a trip take down which is automatically reversed by Wonderboy, and the latter ends up on top. Ellenberger eventually gets back up, but Wonderboy has his back and lifts him up and throws him to the ground. Finally, Ellenberger gets back up and they stand in the center of the octagon, and we see Wonderboy bouncing again, sizing an injured Ellenberger up, waiting to kick him. Wonderboy lands a flurry before listening to his dad, who tells him to spin-kick Ellenberger in the face.

    Overall, I didn't see enough slowing down from Wonderboy in this fight to think he has cardio issues. He was the aggressor the majority of the fight, and he took his time when he knew his opponent was injured. Also, I'm glad I re-watched this fight, cuz I forgot about Wonderboy getting knocked down and recovering so nicely, as well as his reversal when taken down, and his clinch work against the fence.
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,457
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    NJ
    McCrory -245. Please let it stay there, much higher than I expected it to get
     
  14. Johnbmma1 White Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2016
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    0
    reasons for maxing her out? Studying her now & I like the play. Just not sure about maxing
     
  15. michi972 Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,857
    Likes Received:
    77
    What I am thinking about:
    -Cerrone - more skilled, think will pull out a victory
    -Wonderboy - think will outstrike Rory
    -Letornau 1,5 pretty sollid odd, Calderwood got rocked by Casey pillow punches
    -Beal 1,77 , Soto looked terrible so far
    -Bagautinov, top flyweight vs anonymous flyweight
    -Cirkunov, higher odds than i expected
    -Markos

    Out of dogs:
    Jotko - expected about 2,2
    O'Connel - like this guy, Bosse defeated retired Te Huna who was weaj at that stage of carrer
    Alvey- too high odds, Theodoru isn't Brunson and if I remember well he didn't fight for a bit long time
    Silva(vs Saggo) - many people actually predict Silva
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    I need to watch Saggo's fights i only recall the Felder fight vaguely but why is everyone on Saggo? Has Silva not shown increased output since being with ATT? His stand up is pretty good and if memory serves me correctly his tdd is pretty good. My memory could be hazy here tho.

    What do we think Elias by dec odds will be? Really like his decision line. Alvey is a poor mans Hendo without the wrestling. He literally has one shot power and a solid chin nothing else. He has no movement standing and the Aussie guy was able to take him down three times before he knocked himself out on the third takedown. Elias is hittable but has a good chin and he does move a lot he won't be a stationary target. He also spams kicks which will make it difficult for Alvey to get going. Alvey is the slowest starter in the UFC too he makes Cerrone look like a trail blazer in round 1! I expect Elias to mix in lots of lateral movement (especially as he's now at Tristar), spam kicks, clinch Alvey against the cage and throw takedowns in. Unsure of Alvey's ground game as we haven't really seen it but i expect Elias to be able to smother him on the floor. I'm not a big prop player but subject to odds I am considering a fairly big play on Elias dec. Could always hedge with Alvey KO in case.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
  17. conscience Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2015
    Messages:
    758
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Sofia
    I am going heavy on Rory and Cote for the following reasons:

    Odds for Rory and WB are significantly twisted because of their previous fights. Rory gets brutalized, WB blows away a former champ that has a win over the guy that brutalized Rory. If this fight happens before their last fights, I believe Rory would have been like 2:1 favorite. The probability depends on the following questions:
    1.Has Rory been damaged by his last fight - deteriorate his performance so much, that he is now underdog? I feel the probability is low, 33% at most. Rory took a similar beating from Condit, and a previous loss to Lawler and marched on completely unphased in his next fights. The reason I am assigning such a high probability (on the "reduced" Rory) is because it is his last contract fight.

    2. Does WB's last spectacular performance show that he is levels above in certain areas and he is now a favorite pretty much in every fight? I will give this a high probability of about 30%. This is because Hendricks migh have the Bigfoot syndrome, therefore this is not really the same guy. The second reason is a common style opponent - Brown and Condit. WB just got decisioned, which kinda exposed him at the time, while Rory was beating Condit until ... well you know.
    Mathematically those two factors cancel each other, so the right odds should be like Rory 2.5:1 favorite. I just feel Rory is too smart to lose a decision so I am going with it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2016
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think your post is completely flawed. The Condit beating was not similar it was one round of damage and it was early in his career. The first Lawler fight was no where near as nasty as the rematch. There is a thing called accumulative damage. Fighters do not slow down after one tough fight generally, it happens after a few hard fights and Rory has had a few now. You can see him twitching after Lawler knocked him out that is not healty.

    Hendricks BF syndrome? I think not. WB was the first person to knock him out. Common opponent style opponent? You cannot bring that into your breakdown of this fight both of those fights were years ago early in their careers. Not to mention that Brown and Condit do not have similar styles apart from both being standup fighters.

    You are relying far too much on maths with complete speculative work. This is a fight not a maths equation. If Rory was -250 I would place my largest bet ever on WB. To think he should be that much of a favourite is absurd. I'm not saying Rory cannot win this but he needs to drag WB into the latter rounds and hope he slows down. I'm on WB and pretty damn confident.
     
  19. Card Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2012
    Messages:
    13,469
    Likes Received:
    554
    Location:
    K-Dub Canada
    Brett Okamoto on Twitter: "UFC fighters in Ottawa this weekend get to weigh-in early on Friday instead of afternoon again, just like 199 in Cali. Great news."
     
  20. piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,904
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sewers
    if i'm profitable by that point in the night i'm going to put a moderately large bet on bosse via ko. think he definitely finds that chin, and probably early on.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.