Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.
nelson + santos + renan. wham bham thank you mam. im so confident i dont even need to watch tape. Well i will watch some nover tape as i know nothing about him.
really?? nover was a tuf finalist, infamously "the next anderson silva" as dubbed by dana white during the show (no one can remember if it was silva or gsp, lol)
he had a few ufc fights, went to bellator, had some good fights there, came back to ufc, etc
So many leans. Can't wait for lines
Nover is fucking terrible, save your time and don't worry about it
he's not terrible. he never has been. he's not on barao's level, either. never has been.
but let's ease up on this, if you don't think nover has anything to offer, you don't know him.. he has skills everywhere.
He looked good on TUF 8 years ago, what has he done since then? All I remember is him looking meh against mediocre fighters. He's a great grappler and will beat low level guys but I don't think he has anything to offer against Barao
Taking nover, dont think he wins but +480 is good enough for me
Barao is definately better but looks like he could be declining
Ehh he looked great against Stephens until he ate that uppercut, not declined that much yet
I put 0,5U at Lina, because I want to believe.
sure but 1.17 on barrao is just crazy
Depends on what you mean by "that much". The beating he took in the second TJ fight wasn't necessarily JDS/Cain II or III but it was a prolonged beating. He ate A LOT of clean shots in that fight. Those are the type of fights where guys never look the same.
I need to rewatch the Stephens fight, but I don't remember Barao looking "great" at any point. To be fair I don't remember him looking awful or anything either but this is a guy who was wrecking EVERYONE for a long time at 135. 2 beatdowns from TJ and...???
I don't know if I could play Nover here either but no way paying this crazy juice on a guy who looks to be on the decline even if he does have something left in the tank.
Cyborg/Lansberg u1.5 at -290 seems like stealing but...why not just wait for Cyborg rd 1 at -220 or whatever it will be? Anyone actually think otherwise here?
Did Barao really beat anyone at 135 better than Stephens though? Faber is the only argument and I think stylistically hes just a much easier fight for Barao than Stephens.
Also agree with robbie as far as Stephens barely winning. I had Barao winning round 3 and thus the fight until the final minute when his gas was completely gone and Stephens went to town.
I feel comfortable parlaying juiced Barao here. Nover is arguably not even UFC level.
I really need to rewatch Barao/Stephens. I won a solid amount on Stephens and Stephens dec and don't ever recall feeling like I wasn't winning the entire way. But I also could be remembering wrong.
Nover I remember from TUF and he's not awesome, I agree. But when I pay -400 or more juice, usually I need someone in their prime or on the upswing to back and feel okay paying it. Even though I think Barao *should* take care of Nover, I'm just wary of Barao in general now.
But, I also need to look at the entire picture. I did the same thing with JDS vs Rothwell and paid the price in thinking JDS was done. There were warning signs, but they were premature and he showed up and looked great. Barao might be in the same boat, and if so he'll just steamroll Nover easily.
Mike i think the JDS analogy is correct. Barao has showed some cracks but he still owns Nover IMO
Stephens couldn't touch Barao in the first round, his footwork was on point and he was just too fast. Then he ate that uppercut in the 2nd and somehow survived (his chin is still amazing). The 3rd round was close. FWIW I bet 3 units on Stephens at like +150 in that fight and 0.5u on KO and thought it was a close fight and Barao would have won if he didn't get caught in the 2nd.
He might have declined a bit but Nover won't give him trouble anywhere. I'm comfortable using Barao as a parlay piece.
Yeah I remember Stephens was trying to find his range in the first and Barao was avoiding all his punches. I don't remember Barao landing anything very significant, but I know he won the round. In the second I think Stephens got his timing down better and caught Barao as he entered the pocket twice with uppercuts that staggered him? Maybe he even landed 3-4 of them? Then in rd 3 I remember thinking Stephens defenitely landed the harder, cleaner strikes too (though not as much as in rd 2). It was a unanimous dec iirc.
Either way I'm not saying I'd play Nover and yeah Barao **should** handle him. At -275 to maybe even -325 he's parlay fodder for me. At -425? Not enough value added, I'll pass.
He's dropped to -425? Lovely jubbley! Once I've watched Nover to make sure im happy with Barao I can move on to the following weeks card. Two weeks to research a card is bliss!
I thought that's what someone said on the Euro books? 5d doesn't even have a line yet. I was just going by what I thought someone else itt posted. Don't quote me as Gospel LOL, I only use 5d since I'm 'Murican.
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