Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.
You got an insane amount on this event SBJJ? What's your bets?
Agreed. Feeling very confident that Barao wins an easy decision or finishes him.
Yep. Took erick silva and gillepsie at peak purely on value, and now they are back to where they were before the craziness. If you can hedge to make guaranteed profit, you know you're doing something right
cyborg round 1 is still 1.67 (-150) at coral/williamhill. dare i add more or not...
i've got 5u on that
Here are the rest of my pics and breakdown as promised:
Stevie Ray vs. Alan Patrick
Making his return tonight is former Cage Warriors and BAMMA 155 pound champion Stevie Ray. The 26-year-old Scottish bomber is on an absolute roll and an impressive victory tonight against the durable Alan Patrick will potentially catapult the European MMA prospect into the UFC top 20 rankings. A dynamic striker, Ray has a lot of Conor McGregor in him. Though I'm not comparing the two as equals, from a technical standpoint Ray exhibits much of the Irishman's fighting style. Specifically, competing out of the southpaw stance Ray moves swiftly across the cage stalking his prey he prepares to unleash a steady stream of violence. Most notably, Ray has an educated jab — no doubt improving with the work of the Tri-Star gym. This jab is followed up by a stinging right hand and menacing left hook. The main question regarding Ray though is how does he fare off his back? How is that TDD? The blue-chip prospect has yet to be forced to consistently defend takedowns from a top level wrestler/grappler. That said, we do know Ray is an above average submission specialist as he holds a purple belt in BJJ. What's more, the numerous hours logged with the Tri-Star guys have undoubtedly upped his suspect TDD which will be pertinent tonight. Opposing Ray is hometown fighter and wholly pedestrian mixed martial artist Alan Patrick. At 5'11" tall, the oft-injured 33-year-old BJJ black belt is a long and strong fighter. Incidentally, Patrick relies heavily on his physicality to get the job done. With plodding footwork the Brazilian often smothers his striking instead of using his height and reach to fight from the outside. Patrick will no doubt attempt to use his strength advantage to out-muscle Ray and stifle his movement. However, this strategy failed against a far less athletic John Makdessi — though Patrick was awarded a very controversial split decision nonetheless. That said, Stevie Ray is far more elusive than the stationary Canadian Taekwondo stylist. Given this fact, I believe that while Patrick may have success early, his mediocre conditioning will ultimately let him down while Ray will remain fresh as a daisy. From there I expect the Scot to style on the Brazilian in front of his hometown fans. Ray lights him up with a plethora of beautiful strikes from the outside potentially getting a late finish on a thoroughly beaten and winded Patrick.
Vicente Luque vs. Hector Urbina
Oh I'll be brief here. Hector Urbina is among the lowest tier of fighter via can find a job in the preeminent mixed martial arts sports organization in the world. However, I don't look for him to maintain his spot on the roster much longer as that are simply isn't enough of low level talent for him to feast on in order to stick around. Hector is a one-dimensional wrestler who loves to brawl. There simply is no grace to his striking and everything he does is clunky and unkempt. I don't mean to be mean, but he is not UFC talent and should be competing in RFA or potentially Bellator.
Versatile Brazilian Vicente Luque is one of the most improved fighters from TUF in a while and despite his ugly record he's a very talented mixed martial artist. With a technical striking skill-set replete with crisp boxing and brutal kicks to all levels Luque is a real threat on the feet. Accentuating his handiwork is a tight BJJ grappling game bolstered by a black belt in the gentle art. Summarily, Luque is dangerous everywhere and head and shoulders above where Urbina stands. Look for Luque to polish off Urbina under 1.5 by submission.
Jussier da Silva vs. Dustin Ortiz
Coming from Tachi Palace FC as their former 125 lb. champion, Juicy A entered the Octagon behind a ton of hype as a top ranked Flyweight behind #1 ranked Ian McCall. However, Formiga struggled to find his footing early as he dropped two of his first three bouts under the UFC banner. Since then, Formiga has collected himself and appears to have returned to form. Most notably, the Brazilian has rapidly developed a competent striking game and reeled of off three straight victories before dropping a ultra-competitive split decision loss to gold-medal wrestling standout Henry Cejudo. With his hands progressing that is a bad sign for other Flyweights as Formiga is an absolute phenom with his black belt BJJ skills. The lanky 5'5" tall fighter maximizes every centimeter of his 67 inch reach as his striking is improving dramatically and he's already a BJJ master. Confident anywhere, Jussier will fight off his back steadily searching for triangles and armbars while having excellent sweeps. You're never safe with Formiga in any position. Playing host comes dogged blue-collar scrapper Dustin Ortiz. The Roufus Sports fighter is a versatile technician who uses his dynamic athletic prowess and superior conditioning to break his opponents down en route to victory. That said, it's important to look at his resume in full as he began his UFC tenure winning three of his first four. The only setback being a controversial SD loss to then top five ranked Flyweight John Moraga. What's more, his wins were against top-flight competition in Justin Scoggins and Ray Borg while the losing efforts were against Wilson Reis and Joseph Benavidez. Not bad. Not. Bad. At. All.
A hard-nosed competitor, Dustin works in the trenches using his grinding style and endless stamina to outwork his opponent until they break. A serviceable striker, Ortiz basically uses his Kickboxing as a smokescreen to transition into grappling exchanges. From there, Ortiz does his best work from top position where he is technically sound in the grappling and applies nonstop aggression. Dustin is good at everything and great at nothing. Unless Ortiz can sprawl-and-brawl for three rounds — which is entirely possible – expect the Brazilian to stick to him like velcro and quite possibly find his sixth RNC victory. Still yet, as a vast underdog, I find the Ortiz X DEC prop bet to have value and will make a modest wager on it.m
Godofredo Pepey vs. Mike de la Torre
Brazilian fire cracker Pepey is back on the scene following a loss to American scrapper Darren Elkins which derailed his three-fight winning streak. The TUF Brazilian runner-up will be looking to get back on the horse in front of his hometown fans tonight in highlight real fashion. Indeed, with Pepey basically everything is a series of highlights as he is a "push all of his chips in" fighter so to speak with his wild and reckless style. Technically Pepey is a below average striker on the feet but he makes up for it with his unorthodox attacks. Specifically, Pepey will throw flying knees, spinning attacks and other risky techniques because he isn't afraid of landing on his back. This is because Pepey has elite BJJ skills. With a black belt in BJJ Pepey struggles because he finds it hard to bring his man to the floor due to his poor wrestling. However, he will pull guard and work off of his back, throwing up a series of submissions including triangle chokes and arm-bars while using the Kimura and omoplata as sweeps to attain top control. In short, the Brazilian is an opportunistic wild man and you never know what to expect. His opponent MIke De La Torre is a tough as nails brawler with a versatile skill-set who comes from an excellent camp training at the MMA Lab. A confident striker, MDLT does good word from the pocket but will too often find himself in a brawl. He does do good work with his hands and legs and when he is under control works well from the fringe. His grappling game might be the weakest part of his arsenal which is a bit disconcerting given his opponent. Basically MDLT is a jack-of-all-trades's fighter. He's aggressive with everything that he does and his camp helps to put him in the best position to win in each outing. For the purposes of this fight, I believe Pepey is going to come out guns blazing looking to set the crowd on fire. If MDLT weathers the early storm he will likely be able to take advantage of Pepey's significant adrenaline dump. This is important given that Pepey already has shaky cardio to begin with. That said, if the fight gets outside of the first round I like MDLT to pull off the mild upset.
I don't know how much I'll be able to participate ITT tonight as I have things to do I don't know if I'll even be able to watch the fights live . However I am going to put some free bets on my CT MMAGamblingTips.cappertek.com acct. so check there as well .. And as always BOL to everyone!
on the plus side we still live in a world where bookmakers give bigfoot as much chance of beating nelson as cm punk was to beat mickey gall lol, bookies really do suck at capping mma
Wish I didn't bet so much on the flyweight over, the closer it gets the more I think Formiga is gonna choke him out with ease
I got a few on it too, I guess I can lump more on, hedge with cyborg round 2 and lansberg...ko or something if I want too.
Join the league: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/draftkings-leagues.3315313/
1 spot left in tonight's event.
Lol I know, truthfully I suck too and don't know why that I keep taking props. I've probably donated upwards of $10,000 to one of bookmakers employees' kids College tuition.
I'm in bro!
Wait… What do I need to join PR? How do I do this?
You joined the league, now join this $3 entry game: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/28332348
There's 1 spot left.
OK, I guess I had already joined draft Kings before but couldn't remember my password so I used a different email and changed my name from MMAgoodfella to MMA Goodfellas with a S on the end… But I'm joining now.
damn @JimGunn and i thought i went big! how many units is that for you?
Yeah, I might have gotten a little carried away with over 84 units at risk. Scared money don't make money, right?
god damn son! BOL!
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