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UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 15, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    pulled the trigger on yahya -110. just think he gets the nod in close rounds in brazil.. tanaka is gonna fight the fight yahya wants...yahya DEC up to +258, too...
     
  2. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    not a bad choice.. 13 fight card, gonna be tough. i took shots at felder-trinaldo +550 and tiny one on franca-gillespie +1000
     
  3. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Stabbed Formiga vs Ortiz for FOTN
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I considered it, but seems like grappling heavy fights with lots of cool scrambles seem to get the shaft on FOTN. I tend to see this one going that route. Still not a bad bet though.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I almost just passed due to 13 fights. But then I just threw away the Cyborg, Nelson, and Santos fights since I really think they are squash matches. So that made me feel at least a little better about taking a stab on one.
     
  6. The MM Analyst Blue Belt

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    Yeah, I usually don't put down so much, but I'd give Trinaldo around 70% chance of winning and Formiga at least 80%, I don't really see how Ortiz can win that fight. I posted my reasoning a while back and I'll copy it here

    I have Trinaldo at least -200. Felder's game falls apart when his opponents make him come forward and lead. He can't cut off the cage and is content to walk himself onto counters. He'll pivot on his front foot after exchanges, leaving a big space open, so he'll walk himself onto the punches and then lose track of his opponent and have to chase and catch up with them.

    He was having a hell of a time lining Burkman up and Burkman is pretty much only capable of circling in one direction. He can't pivot, and only circles to his open side. He would have to switch stances in order to circle to the other side against Felder. Trinaldo has solid footwork on the outside, he can change direction and lead opponents into counters. He executed basically the exact gameplan he needs to win this fight against Pearson, another fighter who struggles when forced to advance, so it seems likely he'll do the same thing against Felder.

    If Felder won any way other than a low-percentage knockout and it wasn't a result of Trinaldo fighting stupid (something which he hasn't done in a long time), I would be fairly surprised.

    Finally got around to some tape study, just watched some on Formiga/Ortiz. I'll probably check out the Franca and Patrick fights tomorrow.

    I think there's good value on Formiga, I'm hitting him for 6 units. I don't really see a route to victory for Ortiz.

    Formiga's boxing is much tighter and his footwork is a lot better. Ortiz comes in on a straight line with mostly 1-2s, but Formiga can angle off, pivot well, and can mix sidesteps/pivots into his combos. The biggest thing on the feet is that Ortiz isn't much of a counterpuncher, mainly just leads and resets, while Formiga is a very solid counterpuncher. Ortiz comes in predictably, doesn't vary his timing much, and enters with his bolt upright. Formiga is going to be tagging him with counters all day.

    In the clinch, Formiga is very hard to hold against the cage. He's hard to get there in the first place because he's mindful of his position and pivots well. Ortiz doesn't have very good pressure footwork. Formiga is incredibly hard to take down on the cage, his grip fighting against takedowns is spectacular. Reis could hardly even get in a position from which he could shoot a takedown on the cage against him because he was constantly pulling the arm up with overhooks, fighting the free hand, etc. Ortiz also has a habit of getting his back taken in the clinch and that's Formiga's MO.

    The Trinaldo bet is quite risky, but the odds are so disproportionate to how I see the fight that I'm willing to accept the risk. I don't see the Formiga bet as particularly risky because I think Ortiz's chances of winning are marginal at best.
     
  7. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I went back and forth so much on this one. Initially big on yahya and now im on tanaka for 1u
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I know a few people here got a bit nervous thinking because Roy and BF are friends that Roy might not be looking to land the bomb early or that he'll make it a sparring match or just be content to take BF down and lay on him. But unless I'm wrong, I don't think Roy financially is set. He's made some $ sure, but $50k still matters to him I'd imagine. You look up certain guys who've been around a long time and have had big fights and the bonus $ just isn't as big a deal. I think Frank Mir's estimated net worth is around $10m? But I don't think Roy is in that category. I think he'll want the chance at that $.
     
  9. usernamee Silver Belt

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    It would be nice if it takes a few minutes for it to heat up because they are friends that way a bet to make it go past the 1st is interedasting
     
  10. piglord Black Belt

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    what time do the early prelims start?
     
  11. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    6:30 est
     
  12. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Got an insane amount of money on this event.
     
  13. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I think the real sweating will start after Santos & Nelson easily win. But then everyone is staring at the last legs being Barao or Cyborg and then realizing Barry is heavy on them.

    I might even throw in the towel and bet nover at that point
     
  14. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    You gotta pay the cost to be the boss. I got him at his peak odds +170. The rest of the dummies are hammering him at +100.

    I'm not in this to pick the winner I'm in this to pick underdogs at the best prices. And I'm damned good at that.

    I'm fully aware Gregor can get RNC'd here if he isn't on notice.
     
  15. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    me too most i've ever had
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I threw Barao dec in a couple hail mary parlays but otherwise avoiding him. Too juiced for me given all the factors. Nover isn't that good, Barao **should** handle him, but I can't pay his juice. Nover has been insanely hard to finish. If he's in the fight, you never know. I'd rather pay lower juice on the extremely likely outcomes of Roy and Cyborg finishing in rd 1.

    Barao is the one heavily juiced favorite that I think might seriously burn people. I still think he wins, but man...-480 ML? No way. With Roy and Cyborg you can bypass the ML and go straight to the u1.5, u1.0, or Roy/Cyborg rd 1 props. With Barao, how could you have any confidence in how he wins? Even if you are confident he does win, doesn't seem like any props stand out. So you're stuck paying crazy juice.
     
  17. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    [​IMG]
     
  18. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Erick Silva dec +700 at unibet. Very good imo.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I really think noveris getting overrated in here. He should be 0-5 in the ufc
     
  20. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    I do agree that he is the scariest fave. But in a weird way of the 3 he is the most consistent performer. Both Santos & Nelson are flakey.

    I actually thought Stephens was gonna KO Barao last fight. I seriously thought he was done. In a weird way, he impressed me more in that defeat than he did in his Gagnon win
     
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