Bellator 149 - shamrock vs gracie... again...

[Joseph Budden]

Jerry McGuire, right?

Yup, a hood classic

 

[Dingaling]

I would be surprised also. For what it's worth, I did do a parlay with the u1.5 at -350. I just cannot fathom a SU bet with it at -500 or worse. Good luck, regardless

I usually don't bet anything over -200, as I am an underdog bettor but when you combine being 4-0 in NCAAB this week with being a degenerate with not a lot of options, this is what you get

 

[lefontes]

Dada workout training (2:07)

 

[null]

I respect your opinion, which is why i want to know what makes you so confident in Shamrock? I actually like Royce here. If you takeaway the name value Shamrock brings to the table and just look at his actual fights, his performances has been very disappointing. Hows Shamrock going to win? No knockout power, not going to sub Gracie and doesn't usually win via decision. You can also say the same thing about Gracie but the winning edge for Gracie will be his heart and cardio. Shamrock should make it competitive in the first round but Gracie should take over.

Well, it was over twenty years ago, but if you look at their second fight, Ken laid on top of Royce who couldn't submit him and only got a draw back in the old UFC ruleset which would be a boring three round lay and pray decision nowadays. I wouldn't be shocked if Ken got submitted, but also wouldn't be surprised if he TKOed Royce via ground & pound or got a decision.

 

[crewman]

Well, it was over twenty years ago, but if you look at their second fight, Ken laid on top of Royce who couldn't submit him and only got a draw back in the old UFC ruleset which would be a boring three round lay and pray decision nowadays. I wouldn't be shocked if Ken got submitted, but also wouldn't be surprised if he TKOed Royce via ground & pound or got a decision.

lol, I wasn't referring to their old fight, I was more referring to both of their recent fights (like past 5 or 6 fights for the both of them), Gracie by far has the much more impressive resume. For example Gracie has a win over Sakuraba while Sakuraba finished Ken in the first round (That was not an early stoppage btw)

Kens most impressive recent fight has been his close fight with Jonathan Ivey. Ken couldn't finish a guy who has more losses than wins.

 

[Dingaling]

This is just when the degeneracy starts to sink in and when you have an hour and a half left of work with nothing to do...

Kimbo was easily taken down by a guy that he outweighed by 30 pounds in his last fight, although I don't remember the fight very clearly, I want to say it wasn't the most technical take down. Now he's facing a guy that outweighs him by 30 lbs, whereas I'll admit doesn't look as though he has much skill, but Kimbo isn't exactly your most well rounded MMA fighter as take down defense isn't practiced on the streets.

Dada has proclaimed to have 3 degrees and although his logic isn't the greatest in terms of using backyard fighting as an outlet to making it out of the hood, I think he is smart enough to know that Kimbo is more technical than he is standing. I envision him trying to take this to the ground to use that size difference and GNP Kimbo into a ref stoppage.

My local is offer Dada at +200, I'll take a shot at this as opposed to laying the heavy juice as I mentioned earlier

 

[null]

lol, I wasn't referring to their old fight, I was more referring to both of their recent fights (like past 5 or 6 fights for the both of them), Gracie by far has the much more impressive resume. For example Gracie has a win over Sakuraba while Sakuraba finished Ken in the first round (That was not an early stoppage btw)

Kens most impressive recent fight has been his close fight with Jonathan Ivey. Ken couldn't finish a guy who has more losses than wins.

Well, Royce hasn't fought in eight years which has to be worrying. You could be right though, Royce could pull this out by sub or maybe even a lame decision over a gassed Ken. I'm more confident in Kimbo than Ken tonight.

 

[barrygood1]

From what I've been gathering from anonymous sources this is going to be another dodgy match. Take Kimbo at anything -250 or better as it's going to be essentially "free money"

- Barry

 

[Joseph Budden]

From what I've been gathering from anonymous sources this is going to be another dodgy match. Take Kimbo at anything -250 or better as it's going to be essentially "free money"

- Barry

Wow thanks for the inside scoop from your connections!!!

 

[Jae Gibbz]

From what I've been gathering from anonymous sources this is going to be another dodgy match. Take Kimbo at anything -250 or better as it's going to be essentially "free money"

- Barry

When I saw your name pop-up, I was hoping that Dada was your free money pick...

 

[crewman]

From what I've been gathering from anonymous sources this is going to be another dodgy match. Take Kimbo at anything -250 or better as it's going to be essentially "free money"

- Barry

Are you implying match fixing? You deserve a double yellow.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Call me a degen but Kimbo is as far ahead of Da Da 5000 as a mixed martial artist as Daniel Cormier is ahead of Kimbo: Another 5.7u to win 3.0 units on Kimbo at -190.

Agree 100% and the only reason that I'm not breaking the bank is because I do not trust C- level talent -- even when they are facing off against D- level talent -- nor do I trust fighters who I believe would take a dive. Not saying Kimbo would but as a sports bettor for 15 years that type of rapid line movement makes my ears perk up. That said, Occam's Razor says that nothing nefarious is happening. that it's just a few whales believing that DD5K can use his massive size advantage to overwhelm Kimbo and nothing else. I mean, Kimbo has absolutely no reason at all to take a dive in this spot as it would not benefit him in the least to lose a match to Doll-Doll 5000 when he has myriad potential lucrative match ups on the horizon with Tito Ortiz, Rampage Jackson, Wanderlei Silva, among others. If anything, a loss to a 39-year-old "Wannabe Kimbo mark" would be exponentially worse to his bottom line as it was irreparably damage the Kimbo Slice brand and put all of the aforementioned potential match-ups in jeopardy. What's more, not only is this matchup important to Kimbo in the form of monetary value and credibility. While I know that Kimbo like his "bread" I also believe this is personal -- for bragging rights as to whom is the best baddest man at your uncles barbecue in the Sunshine State -- and he doesn't want to give it to DD5K. That said, I just get concerned when I see such incredible rapid line movement for no apparent reason. However, conspiracy theories aside I think that Kimbo comes out and sparks DaDa with one clean shot in the opening minute of the fight and sleeps the cat. Subsequently Kimblow ups the ante and challenges his vanquished foe to a 'winner takes all' biggest "nut-sack competition" where Slice opens up as a a 2-1 favorite due to his work in the pornography business.

re: Gracie/Shamrock
Call me crazy, but I also put a flier on Shamrock as well. If you watch the preview video there is, it shows Can Shamrock putting in work in the gym and actually training while Royce Gracie is standing around doing absolutely nothing. In fact I believe the only exercise that was demonstrated from Royce in the entire episode was him walking up a flight of stairs and firing a gun. Moreover, Royce has said that he hasn't changed his training up whatsoever .... that the only thing he needs to know to win this fight is "Gracie Jiu-Jitsu" because his father created instructors" not fighters. That is not verbatim but close enough. Royce is extremely arrogant and unable to except that the the fight game has evolved and circa 1993 "Gracie BJJ" is not the end all be all of competition. This is 2016 and not 1993 and I believe Shamrock can use his wrestling to get on top of Royce and stay out of the submissions. I mean, you have to wonder how flexible Royce is at this point anyway. Additionally, there is the chance that Shamrock could use his wrestling in reverse and just box Royce up for three rounds...

Also people like to look back with fond memories of UFC I where at that point Royce smoked Shammy in the opening minute of their first match but fail to remember that they had a rematch without time limits that went 36 minutes where Shamrock was on top of Royce the entire time & was the only one who did any sort of damage at all. I believe that he can replicate this. Even at 65 years old.

I'm also leaning towards Derek Campos over Melvin at these odds. Although I think Melvin is the better fighter with more skills, you always have to worry about what's going on between those two years and I with him coming into this match up 2 pounds overweight that tells me that he isn't taking it as seriously as he should. His lackadaisical attitude coming in could very well lead to an upset. Sometimes with Melvin I believe that all the bleach he's put on his head for all these years has sunk in and damaged his brain. Nevertheless, while I don't see Campos as in any type of wunderkind, he is a serviceable fighter who must be taken seriously. As such I think think that the lines should be closer than they indicate. Remember, going on a decade you always get "good Melvin" (smokes Evan Dunham) and "bad Melvin" (dropped by Lauzon and Joe Daddy jabs and choked out on the mat) and we could be due for the former.

 

[crewman]

A lot of tricky matchups on this fascinating Bellator card. Keep going crazy on Sham/Gracie and also Linton/Hardcore Kid.

I know Emmanuel came back from adversity in their fight but I do believe he should be favored in this matchup. I think the fight goes to decision where Newton should win. I think Linton lands a few good takedowns but judges should reward Newtons striking and activity. I was not impressed at all with Linton against King Mo.

 

[EzFlyer]

A lot of tricky matchups on this fascinating Bellator card. Keep going crazy on Sham/Gracie and also Linton/Hardcore Kid.

I know Emmanuel came back from adversity in their fight but I do believe he should be favored in this matchup. I think the fight goes to decision where Newton should win. I think Linton lands a few good takedowns but judges should reward Newtons striking and activity. I was not impressed at all with Linton against King Mo.

you weren't impressed in rd 2? he was seriously threatening him and could've won if it was a 3 rounder, as he started to find his grappling groove

 

[mkess101]

lol, I wasn't referring to their old fight, I was more referring to both of their recent fights (like past 5 or 6 fights for the both of them), Gracie by far has the much more impressive resume. For example Gracie has a win over Sakuraba while Sakuraba finished Ken in the first round (That was not an early stoppage btw)

Kens most impressive recent fight has been his close fight with Jonathan Ivey. Ken couldn't finish a guy who has more losses than wins.

Dude, Royce's most recent fight was over EIGHT years ago. In terms of relevance, Royce doesn't have anything to point to as it's just been way too long since he's fought. Especially given he's aged from early 40's to early 50's (as opposed to from early 20's to early 30's where you could argue there maybe wasn't any real physical decline in the layoff--at Royce's age it's almost a guaranteed to be a steep decline).

 

[mkess101]

This is just when the degeneracy starts to sink in and when you have an hour and a half left of work with nothing to do...

Kimbo was easily taken down by a guy that he outweighed by 30 pounds in his last fight, although I don't remember the fight very clearly, I want to say it wasn't the most technical take down. Now he's facing a guy that outweighs him by 30 lbs, whereas I'll admit doesn't look as though he has much skill, but Kimbo isn't exactly your most well rounded MMA fighter as take down defense isn't practiced on the streets.

Dada has proclaimed to have 3 degrees and although his logic isn't the greatest in terms of using backyard fighting as an outlet to making it out of the hood, I think he is smart enough to know that Kimbo is more technical than he is standing. I envision him trying to take this to the ground to use that size difference and GNP Kimbo into a ref stoppage.

My local is offer Dada at +200, I'll take a shot at this as opposed to laying the heavy juice as I mentioned earlier

Check out Dada's grappling "skills" in post #104 itt. He's fighting a guy who's never won a pro fight (0-6). The guy takes Dada down and moves to mount on him easily. Then the ref inexplicably stands them up. Literally the worst standup I've ever seen. Dada probably would have been pounded out by this guy if not for that.

Kimbo was on TUF. Has fought and trains with real fighters. As limited as his skillset is, and even as shot as his knees looked vs Ken, Kimbo should be able to easily take Dada down and pound him out if he chooses.

 

[crewman]

EZ, yeah I was not impressed with Linton, the only success he had in that fight was when he took Mo down (and the only reason he took Mo down was out of desperation, he was getting owned on the feet) It didn't even matter though, King Mo reversed him and took Linton down anyway. If you're impressed with surviving a fight then you are easily impressed. Linton made King Mo (a Wrestler) look like he was a top striker. I do think Linton can steal at least 1 round from Newton but I think Newton comes out guns blazing here and reminds us why hes the Hardcore Kid.

 

[Ballsaque]

EZ, yeah I was not impressed with Linton, the only success he had in that fight was when he took Mo down (and the only reason he took Mo down was out of desperation, he was getting owned on the feet) It didn't even matter though, King Mo reversed him and took Linton down anyway. If you're impressed with surviving a fight then you are easily impressed. Linton made King Mo (a Wrestler) look like he was a top striker. I do think Linton can steal at least 1 round from Newton but I think Newton comes out guns blazing here and reminds us why hes the Hardcore Kid.

King mo is a good striker, mate.

But Linton's striking is wooden as fuck, no doubt. He has to do the grappling thang to win this time around. And Newton is way too willing to grapple and put him self in terrible positions on the ground time and time again, though he's basically impossible to submit with anything but jointlocks.

 

[crewman]

Especially given he's aged from early 40's to early 50's (as opposed to from early 20's to early 30's where you could argue there maybe wasn't any real physical decline in the layoff--at Royce's age it's almost a guaranteed to be a steep decline).

Everyone ages differently though. You cant bet on biological guidelines. Look I'm not saying Royce is a lock, but rather I think he has the Heart and Cardio to edge this fight. Maybe even pull out a submission on a tired Shamrock. Fascinating fight to predict though because of the ridiculous variables and lack of decent footage. It leaves a lot to the imagination.

 

[LEMONZEST]

DaDa 500 more like...

Also crazy the under right now is a wopping -500