UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson

[mkess101]

Admittedly I'm only going off memory and it's only his 2 fights in the UFC but do people really see Sandhagen showing the discipline to not brawl with Lineker? I love the way Sandhagen fights, super exciting. But nothing I've seen showed me he wants anything to do with a fight that's 15 minutes of cat and Mouse. Maybe for a bit, but he's just super aggressive by nature it seems. The first solid shot Lineker lands I gotta believe Cory goes into kill or be killed mode. He may try to force some grappling exchanges but I'm not sure he has the ability to make Lineker play that game.

As much as I'd love to see Cory win and become a legit contender, I gotta favor Lineker here.

 

[null]

Most totals out at BetOnline & BetDSI. All set where they should be imho, so none I want to jump on early.

 

[zeckdo]

Alternately Herm threw up an unorthodox, low-percentage submission whilst pulling guard against a better grappler and is now going against a dude with competition wins over Roger Gracie & Demian Maia.

he didn't pull guard. I'm also banking on him pulling off another low percentage unorthodox sub this fight as well. unlikely, not impossible.

 

[Stunna77]

he didn't pull guard. I'm also banking on him pulling off another low percentage unorthodox sub this fight as well. unlikely, not impossible.

Very close to impossible imo. Think a whole lot of folks are vastly overrating Hermannson based on some cool finishes. Jacare is going to run him over.

 

[lefontes]

Jacaré ko/tko or decision @4 on bet365 have great value. Jacaré ko's Weidman, Brunson and Belfort and looking for stand all last fights. This is big value imo.

 

[Jordan3399]

Jacaré ko/tko or decision @4 on bet365 have great value. Jacaré ko's Weidman, Brunson and Belfort and looking for stand all last fights. This is big value imo.

Agree on the KO being undervalued heavily here but prefer to just play KO straight, really don't see this going to a dec.

Jacare ITD on Skybet is at -137 for those that can hit it btw.

Edit: Just seen the lines have totally shifted, KO prop still +400-500 on Skybet, Betfair and other ones over here. ITD now -188 so would pass.

 

[null]

UFC Fort Lauderdale ceremonial weigh-in:

 

[Vir_Ars]

Cuteleba breaking the Glover picture increase my confidence in Cuteleba, that's some weird voodoo right there.

 

[usernamee]

Maybe it was the lighting and angles, but Dmitry looked fucking huge and swoll. Like, russian supplements big. And his wrestling is solid actually...just deplorable cardio

 

[Card]

^ They sparred together at ATT as well, but Dmitrii didn't do his camp there this fight.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Meaningless gut takes from weigh-ins:
-Court looks a little soft. Probably fine though.
-Gonzalez looking shredded and jacked and tall compared to Miller.
-Sakai looks like he's in good shape. I've hedged my small Arlovski action and might switch sides entirely on this one.
-Gifford is gonna get worked.
-Glover taken by surprise by Ion's attitude. Friendly and smiling, extends a handshake and is rejected. Gonna read way too deep into that and expect an under-prepared Glover.
-Whatever, Perry is awesome haha.
-I was pretty worried about Smoliakov wrestle-fucking Hardy but he looks like he has about 2-3 minutes of cardio in that body.
-He may well dive head first into the alligator's mouth, he may well get smoked, but this fight means everything to Jack and this fight means very little to Jacare. We'll see....

 

[Martialbeef]

Saunders have any chance?

 

[usernamee]

-He may well dive head first into the alligator's mouth, he may well get smoked, but this fight means everything to Jack and this fight means very little to Jacare. We'll see....

I'd disagree with that. Jacare has been promised a title shot (lol at promised title shot, but still) with a win here and seems very motivated to do well in this spot and get that fucking title shot once in for all.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'd disagree with that. Jacare has been promised a title shot (lol at promised title shot, but still) with a win here and seems very motivated to do well in this spot and get that fucking title shot once in for all.

Yeah, I thought about my wording there too. What I meant is: if Jacare loses that's a huge problem for him, if he wins it really doesn't change all that much because he's expected to win. If Jack loses it really doesn't change much, if he wins it's a huge, huge win for him. Plus, a promised title shot? So he'd have to wait for Izzy-Whittaker, which likely gives the victor a long layoff after that one too. Probably just fights Romero again for some interim nonsense.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I guess the weigh-in pushed me over the edge but I've been on the fence all along. Was swayed by the + but Arlovski sucks. Doesn't throw enough, doesn't take chances, seems to be so reliant on confidence. Sakai showing up in seemingly great shape (for him) and Andrei looking meh, normal, I'm switching sides.

 

[Oblivian]

Yeah, I thought about my wording there too. What I meant is: if Jacare loses that's a huge problem for him, if he wins it really doesn't change all that much because he's expected to win. If Jack loses it really doesn't change much, if he wins it's a huge, huge win for him. Plus, a promised title shot? So he'd have to wait for Izzy-Whittaker, which likely gives the victor a long layoff after that one too. Probably just fights Romero again for some interim nonsense.

He's only -200 man. A lot of people see him losing or see this being a tough fight for him.

 

[Soccer Steve]

He's only -200 man. A lot of people see him losing or see this being a tough fight for him.

Myself included. But the pressure is still all on jacare. Jack is in the win-null situation.

 

[Card]

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Significant pants height advantages for Lima, Hill, Sanhagen and Hardy. Slight advantages for Gonzalez, Davis and Killer B.

BC is disqualified since Perry is bending over a ton and I'm too lazy to watch the ceremonial weigh in.

 

[Austisthunder]

Myself included. But the pressure is still all on jacare. Jack is in the win-null situation.

I feel like maybe ur over quantifying this