UFC on ESPN+ 28 Lee vs Oliveira

[Rebel_LioN]

Hope they cancel them tomorrow.

Still nothing... looks like we’re stuck

 

[Martialbeef]

Will wait a few hours before placing anything big.

 

[ill800]

Still nothing... looks like we’re stuck

I would imaging they refund them today. I’m sure they know we defend want to use that money for this card

 

[LEMONZEST]

Lee sub +700 way better than Lee KO +170 IMO. Would price them both around +350

Agreed. Books assume good BJJ guys wont get subbed which is often true. Olive is the exception. He is so offense oriented that he leaves openings. Lee could for sure find a sub.

 

[Oblivian]

Or he opted to not completely deplete himself making the weight, stop the cut at an early but acceptable point and to reap the benefits of not taxing himself so much pre fight

I said 'Or he', not 'This is 100% factually what happened', because as both you and me know this is all conjecture and no one but Lee himself and his team really know the answer.

Maybe he wanted to be as big and heavy as possible because he plans to wrestle a lot and feels the extra weight will be to his advantage.

Wasn't he the last to weigh in and right at the cutoff? Why would anyone assume that he stopped the cut early? It really wouldn't be that much of an advantage to sit there totally dehydrated until the end. If you can't make the weight and stop losing, weigh in early and rehydrate.

Lee has toyed with going to WW. He stated himself that LW is a tough cut for him. We are seeing more fighters move up that feel the weight cut was hurting their performance. I think him missing weight at the cutoff is not a good sign and I've stated my reasons. I can understand why some may think it may be good for him, but people saying "fighters missing weight have won recently" is not solid reasoning. As I mentioned, that's like finding a statistic stating underdogs are beating the odds and then concluding "all underdogs have value". Bullshit - you have to look at each matchup.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

No one is saying “fighters missing weight have won recently.

We’re going off of stats. And the numbers are as follows; 67% of the last 33 UFC fighters that came in overweight have won. That’s not a made up number. Check for yourself.

 

[Oblivian]

Has anyone seen a statement from Lee after missing weight, an interview, anything?

Let me know, at almost my entire bankroll rests on this fight.

I'm not sure if he's really issued much of a statement on his weight cut for this fight, but he's talked a lot about weight cutting in the past. Weight cuts are really tough for him and a battle. He wishes that no one cut weight.

 

[Oblivian]

No one is saying “fighters missing weight have won recently.

We’re going off of stats. And the numbers are as follows; 67% of the last 33 UFC fighters that came in overweight have won. That’s not a made up number. Check for yourself.

No, people are legitimately saying that missing weight is upping his chances to win. See below.

"how much evidence do you need to realise that wrestlers missing weight is superbeneficial for them??????? I am definitely buying out of my olivieira bets, first no crowd then lee missing weight by 2.5 lbs. damn lee should win this."

"Why would you like lee less when 95%of fighters who miss weight win? Borg looked great last fight after missing weigh"

 

[LEMONZEST]

Without digging into stats it does feel like lately people have missed weight and then gone on to win. Thats just recency bias though.

Each situation is different. I think missing weight is a bad sign for Lee. Some people miss weight on purpose it seems to gain a size advantage in the fight. Lee isnt doing that.

 

[AffectEffect]

No one is saying “fighters missing weight have won recently.

We’re going off of stats. And the numbers are as follows; 67% of the last 33 UFC fighters that came in overweight have won. That’s not a made up number. Check for yourself.

33 is a pathetic sample size, why can't you understand that with a larger sample size your trend dissappears?

Overall this thread has been really enlightening. All the idiots have come out and revealed themselves.

I'm not surprised that the people who believe in bat soup hoaxes or get triggered by the historical nature of Nationalism are all the worst gamblers in the forum.

How can you ever expect to handicap fights objectively when you have no critical thinking skills?

 

[Oblivian]

Without digging into stats it does feel like lately people have missed weight and then gone on to win. Thats just recency bias though.

Each situation is different. I think missing weight is a bad sign for Lee. Some people miss weight on purpose it seems to gain a size advantage in the fight. Lee isnt doing that.

Exactly. I didn't think Fig missing vs. Benavidez was a big deal. Dawson missing (before fight was cancelled) I thought was a clear advantage. It just depends on the fighter or what style of fight.

 

[carolinagrapple]

Error on dimes.....Oliviera straight up +1630 right now haha....dont touch it though

 

[Oblivian]

33 is a pathetic sample size, why can't you understand that with a larger sample size your trend dissappears?

Overall this thread has been really enlightening. All the idiots have come out and revealed themselves.

I'm not surprised that the people who believe in bat soup hoaxes or get triggered by the historical nature of Nationalism are all the worst gamblers in the forum.

How can you ever expect to handicap fights objectively when you have no critical thinking skills?

I keep trying to tell them that the #'s used to be opposite as well at a larger sample size. One of the members (Tebowned maybe) ran it over several years and the guys who missed weight were losing. I really wouldn't be shocked if it would be near 50/50 if you ran it back 10 years to have a larger sample size.

 

[2020Tracked]

Wasn't he the last to weigh in and right at the cutoff? Why would anyone assume that he stopped the cut early? It really wouldn't be that much of an advantage to sit there totally dehydrated until the end. If you can't make the weight and stop losing, weigh in early and rehydrate.

Lee has toyed with going to WW. He stated himself that LW is a tough cut for him. We are seeing more fighters move up that feel the weight cut was hurting their performance. I think him missing weight at the cutoff is not a good sign and I've stated my reasons. I can understand why some may think it may be good for him, but people saying "fighters missing weight have won recently" is not solid reasoning. As I mentioned, that's like finding a statistic stating underdogs are beating the odds and then concluding "all underdogs have value". Bullshit - you have to look at each matchup.

Missing weight and not cutting as har being a grappling/wrestling heavy fighter with cardio issues is certainly to him benifit.

 

[AffectEffect]

My worry is Barzola cut too much and it may hurt him in a grappling exchanges. If the cut didn't depelete him his striking and TDD have impressed here.

I'm not sure Barzola can depend on his TDD in this fight. He isn't a great technical wrestler like Ricky Simon who fought a perfect fight. I think yaya can land takedowns and control barzola, but the question is for how long.

The price is good enough for me to take the more experienced fighter with the better wins/career. Hopefully he comes in in better shape after his loss. I think there is at least 4 people from att fighting together on this card. I'm hoping that rani is prepared. Will be looking for a live hedge after round 1

 

[Danis_champ]

For anyone backing Burns, why is this fight any different than the Masvidal fight, or Lyman Good or Rocco Martin?

I'd agree Bruns is a higher level grappler and has better BJJ than any of those guys, but is he a better striker? Does he have a more well rounded game? Can he stuff a takedown or defend his back better than Masvidal? Is he stronger than Lyman Good?

I just don't see why Burns is the one to do what the others can't. No doubt Maia's striking is bad and he slows down and he's getting older... But all of that was true when he fought everyone else. Maia has went the rounds with the best in the world, didn't always came out on top but he stayed in the fight and stayed dangerous.

What is Burns offering that is new?

Great post and exactly my thoughts

I think Burns is generally still the same guy he has been for the past few years with few improvements. Gunnar would have beaten him had he thrown bit more volume. Maia loses to the very best only and not sure Burns belongs there just yet. He is 33 and likely finished product. Maia should win R1 and Burns R3. It will come down to R2. Sounds more like a coinflip fight with skill edge for Maia.

 

[Sono07]

Wasn't he the last to weigh in and right at the cutoff? Why would anyone assume that he stopped the cut early? It really wouldn't be that much of an advantage to sit there totally dehydrated until the end. If you can't make the weight and stop losing, weigh in early and rehydrate.

Lee has toyed with going to WW. He stated himself that LW is a tough cut for him. We are seeing more fighters move up that feel the weight cut was hurting their performance. I think him missing weight at the cutoff is not a good sign and I've stated my reasons. I can understand why some may think it may be good for him, but people saying "fighters missing weight have won recently" is not solid reasoning. As I mentioned, that's like finding a statistic stating underdogs are beating the odds and then concluding "all underdogs have value". Bullshit - you have to look at each matchup.

Can't say one way or another but this tweet from the day before made it seem like he stopped early due to being unsure if that fight would be canceled. Could be the stress got to him or he might have said to hell with the extra work.
Have a little on Lee so not sure how to feel about it but seems like he just made his cut easier.

 

[Sono07]

I'm not sure Barzola can depend on his TDD in this fight. He isn't a great technical wrestler like Ricky Simon who fought a perfect fight. I think yaya can land takedowns and control barzola, but the question is for how long.

The price is good enough for me to take the more experienced fighter with the better wins/career. Hopefully he comes in in better shape after his loss. I think there is at least 4 people from att fighting together on this card. I'm hoping that rani is prepared. Will be looking for a live hedge after round 1

I've got a little on Barzola hoping he brings more power coming for 145 that and I thought his grappling looked good last time out. Yahya's takedowns do have me worried.

 

[Oblivian]

Missing weight and not cutting as har being a grappling/wrestling heavy fighter with cardio issues is certainly to him benifit.

I really don't know how you can assume he didn't "cut as hard" considering he weighed in at the last minute. It seems far more logical that it was a failed weight cut that he did try hard on. I'd feel differently if he missed early, but he didn't. Also when you compound this with his statements on cutting weight in general, it's pretty logical that this cut was likely harsh on him.

 

[Oblivian]

Can't say one way or another but this tweet from the day before made it seem like he stopped early due to being unsure if that fight would be canceled. Could be the stress got to him or he might have said to hell with the extra work.
Have a little on Lee so not sure how to feel about it but seems like he just made his cut easier.

I don't know why you would draw a conclusion from that tweet that he stopped the cut early.