UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

[Main_Card_MMA]

We must have wildly different ideas on what "easy money" is, and this is coming from someone who called the Robertson-Botelho fight exactly.

Still, a -220 favorite who decisively loses round 1 and has her only path to victory repeatedly thwarted that stanza is definitely not "easy money", and again, this is coming from someone who thought it was very likely Botelho would win round 1 but lose the fight.

My pre-fight analysis is on page 2 of that thread. It wasn't the single leg (your prediction) or the body lock (my prediction) that got it down, but the double. Robertson was never in danger of being finished with strikes which is something both of us predicted. Robertson didn't catch the leg kick (your presumption later in the thread), but did catch the body kick. Robertson was close to finishing with strikes and took the back late in the 3rd, but didn't finish (I said I thought most WMMA fights go long, but in my prediction I favored the FDGTD line which was too high for me). Robertson clearly won 29-27 and was never really threatened. Outside of the first round, was there a single minute of the fight where you thought that Robertson would lose it? It's not like Robertson was being dominated and on her way out then came back out of nowhere. Park/Robertson parlay paid even money at closing odds; I should have put 10U on it.

 

[TrueAscension]

Can you two take it to private message or something? No one gives a shit.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

My pre-fight analysis is on page 2 of that thread. It wasn't the single leg (your prediction) or the body lock (my prediction) that got it down, but the double. Robertson was never in danger of being finished with strikes which is something both of us predicted. Robertson didn't catch the leg kick (your presumption later in the thread), but did catch the body kick.

I think some of those were leg kicks, but regardless, the point was that Robertson was catching kicks, something you doubted she could do.

Robertson clearly won 29-27 and was never really threatened. Outside of the first round, was there a single minute of the fight where you thought that Robertson would lose it?

Irrelevant. When you lose round 1 in a 3-round fight, you're really behind the 8-ball. It's not something you want to see in a -220 favorite, and certainly isn't "easy" or "safe". You know how I would cap Robertson's performance in that match?

As roughly a -200, which was almost exactly her line.

Park/Robertson parlay paid even money at closing odds; I should have put 10U on it.

I'm generally a fan of people going very heavy on big reads, way beyond the usual 5u, but I would advise strongly against these kinds of parlays.

Can you two take it to private message or something? No one gives a shit.

What a surprise; the guy who makes garbage two-line posts with zero analysis and fake, bullshit parlays doesn't like an actual technical discussion.

 

[burge13]

Anyone know exactly how long Tai has been at training AKA? I imagine Javier Mendez makes him put the hours in if he is a new teammate....February of 2020 is first reference I can find

He was going to go over there but covid hit. I'm pretty sure he did camp in Sydney as per normal in the end but had spent some time at AKA (not as much as was first planned)

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Can you two take it to private message or something? No one gives a shit.

My bad. I'm new and can only exploit that excuse for so long.

I think some of those were leg kicks, but regardless, the point was that Robertson was catching kicks, something you doubted she could do.

I said she had caught body kicks in the past, but I didn't see her catching leg kicks. Regardless, it's the wrong thread.

He was going to go over there but covid hit. I'm pretty sure he did camp in Sydney as per normal in the end but had spent some time at AKA (not as much as was first planned)

He said in his media day interview that he had moved to California to train at AKA, but he went home to be with his son after Covid hit. From the way he was talking about Valasquez and Cormier, do you think he plans to wrestle?

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Before that match began the two had to be separated. Both corners came into the cage and were all fired up pre fight.

cutelaba was hurt but was defending strikes trying to recover and the fight was stopped

the odds increased because cutelaba did nothing and looked very much outclassed standing.

Was he hurt though? He was taunting with that fake wobbly thing he does because he's an asshole, but I don't know if he was really hurt. He's done that same thing in other fights including ones he has won and he was totally with it when the ref stopped the fight. Ankalaev was piecing him up pretty easily, but I don't think he was anywhere near finishing him. I think Cutelaba has a solid chin and his Instagram showed him working his cardio with jump rope, but his creatine body won't last long especially with his style of super aggro and junk strike defense. I kind of like the over 1.5 hedged with Cutelaba rd1 as I don't see Ankalaev finishing before that. Ankalaev ML is overpriced IMO. Might just skip altogether or use Ankalaev as a parlay piece.

 

[burge13]

He said in his media day interview that he had moved to California to train at AKA, but he went home to be with his son after Covid hit. From the way he was talking about Valasquez and Cormier, do you think he plans to wrestle?

I haven't watched the video but if he plans to wrestle he's dumber than I give him credit for and I think he's as dumb as a bag of rocks.

He's never wrestled, he won't be good enough after 4-5 months of learning to be a wrestler. He may get good enough to take Struve down but then he's hopeless on the ground anyway. Keep it standing, land on the broken chin of the man with tall man defense.

Low IQ with bad cardio isn't a good mix but Tai 'should' win this one. Trusting him with your money is a different matter

 

[TrueAscension]

What a surprise; the guy who makes garbage two-line posts with zero analysis and fake, bullshit parlays doesn't like an actual technical discussion.

lol

which one do you think's fake? also, if I post a screenshot of it will you leave this forum forever?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

After watching a bit on Tuivasa and some interviews i hate doing this but i will throw a small bet for ITD.

 

[ill800]

 

[Mcgregorian]

Does anybody on here only bet live for MMA?

Recently i have started. It's harder here in OZ as we can't be trusted as much as the rest of the world with gambling addiction.
You have to call with a code to place a live bet which is shit BUT over the last month of doing it i am going well.

I think this is a tough card for betting so the only pre bets i'm making are

Cannonier ML
Khabib SUB
Khabib DEC

If things keep going the way they are i may give up pre betting all together....

 

[BigSteve]

Does anybody on here only bet live for MMA?

Recently i have started. It's harder here in OZ as we can't be trusted as much as the rest of the world with gambling addiction.
You have to call with a code to place a live bet which is shit BUT over the last month of doing it i am going well.

I think this is a tough card for betting so the only pre bets i'm making are

Cannonier ML
Khabib SUB
Khabib DEC

If things keep going the way they are i may give up pre betting all together....

Dont know how you do it, I live in OZ and its super frustrating. Before I got limited on Sportsbet it wasent too bad, now on Bet365 they do have much better live betting options, only problem is the fast code is like 15 numbers long on 365 and you can only bet props inbetween rounds and its not even available for the full 1 min break lol. I realise now you have to call in advance and then wait for the round to be over.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Dont know how you do it, I live in OZ and its super frustrating. Before I got limited on Sportsbet it wasent too bad, now on Bet365 they do have much better live betting options, only problem is the fast code is like 15 numbers long on 365 and you can only bet props inbetween rounds and its not even available for the full 1 min break lol. I realise now you have to call in advance and then wait for the round to be over.

Yeah i'm doing it on Bet365 and you have to be quick to roll out your account and code but the code is now only 4 letters. I normally start the call 30 seconds before the bell of the round if I'm going to make a play. I guess i could just hide my VPN and bet through Betfair live, I've just not tried it...

 

[PuertoRican]

I'll be in Las Vegas for this card. If any of you guys are gonna be there, send me a PM. I'll be there with a couple of other dudes who used to post here.

Don't forget that the first fight is at 8am California time, and the PPV card starts at 11am.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Yeah i'm doing it on Bet365 and you have to be quick to roll out your account and code but the code is now only 4 letters. I normally start the call 30 seconds before the bell of the round if I'm going to make a play. I guess i could just hide my VPN and bet through Betfair live, I've just not tried it...

Do you know if 365 are available over the phone at like 4:30 AM?

Are the people you talk to Aussies or from overseas?

This card, all the fights are going to be happening overnight, and I'm skeptical whether BF will be able to actually have anyone manning the phones at those hours.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I'll be in Las Vegas for this card. If any of you guys are gonna be there, send me a PM. I'll be there with a couple of other dudes who used to post here.

Don't forget that the first fight is at 8am California time, and the PPV card starts at 11am.

I won't be there for this event, but I might be at some future ones. Do you know a lot about the Vegas books? I bet at Westgate and sometimes The D, but do others have as many line options as Westgate? Circa/The D kinda sucks for line options and has limited me on parlays. I've never live bet in Vegas and don't know if they even offer it for fights.

 

[loller90278]

wow khabib did not look good at all during weigh in. Seemed like it was a huge cut

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

wow khabib did not look good at all during weigh in. Seemed like it was a huge cut

That look of pure relief on his face when they announced 155. He really didn't think he was going to make weight.

 

[TheLampPost]

He said in his media day interview that he had moved to California to train at AKA, but he went home to be with his son after Covid hit. From the way he was talking about Valasquez and Cormier, do you think he plans to wrestle?

If you watch DC’s media scrum, the way he talks about Tai’s wrestling training there was more about not accepting bottom position when taken down (like his last fight) than offensive wrestling chops. Basically stated Tai had been just kind of winging it with no game plan his entire UFC stint. Not to say that gives me any hope, but it did appear the training was short lived before having to return to Australia due to Covid Travel restrictions

 

[jfrito]

I make it a point to avoid any content by Brendan Schaub. That dude just makes me cringe. I actually do agree with your synopsis though. Justin's best chance to win is KO/TKO of a tired Khabib in the 3rd or 4th round. I would say his chances of winning are around 5-1 or 6-1. I will celebrate if Justin pulls off the upset as we get to see them fight again in what would be an epic rematch.

i would take 6-1 all day.