UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland

[TrueAscension]

Yeah and Smolka usually fights much better or worse than he should on paper. But my dog or pass instinct stopped hitting for me here the more I looked into Quinonez. He's an ok wrestler with mediocre-to-ok striking. 9 fights into the UFC and a win over Smolka would be his best win by a wide margin. His path to victory is most likely Smolka making a mistake and getting trapped in a sub, but with less ability to do that than most of Smolka's competition. Small favorite odds looks pretty good against that.

heard I just have a really difficult time trusting either of them with my money

 

[GoldenWolf87]

OSP looked a bit bad on the weigh in. I like hill in this fight card.

 

[longway]

Why is Jackson +230? I like Topuria and bet him in his last fight, but this is deranged imo.

 

[loller90278]

Why is Jackson +230? I like Topuria and bet him in his last fight, but this is deranged imo.

because topuria is the georgian connor mcgregor duh

 

[SBJJ]

IMO Hermannson is too opportunistic and slick with his grappling to pay any juice at all on Vettori here. I know the line is close, but even at -135 or whatever Marvin is, I couldn't see betting him. He could be controlling the action for 15 minutes, make one mistake, and be tapping seconds later. Way too nervewracking to make that play.

On the flipside I can see a case for a play on Jack. I don't LOVE it, because I think Vettori likely will get the better of more exchanges than not when it's standing. But I can see it. Wouldn't dream of making it a big play or anything but Jack as a dog might have a bit of value. I think if forced I'd make him a very slight favorite honestly. Something like Hermannson -120, Vettori +100 seems about where I'd cap it?

Christ, how on earth did you get a yellow

 

[mkess101]

Christ, how on earth did you get a yellow

Might have gone a bit too hard on that StonecoldSteveAustin jag. Thread about student loan debt of all things LMAO and he just was repeating his same tired anti Republican rhetoric. Funny thing is I'm pretty moderate, not far right (for example you're farther right than me by far even though I lean conservative) but still...just him not being on topic and saying the same stupid left wing talking points over and over got irritating. So I called out how stupid he was a few times without adding anything else. Ruprecht dinged me.

Meh, is what it is. That Steve Austin turd has been banned before, will be again. Kongsdon'ttap or something was his last account.

 

[longway]

because topuria is the georgian connor mcgregor duh

At these odds he should be. Oh well, easier for me to bet on jackson and hedge live when (or if) the fight is closer than the betting line suggests. Will be a great scrap whatever happens.

 

[matthew55]

Might have gone a bit too hard on that StonecoldSteveAustin jag. Thread about student loan debt of all things LMAO and he just was repeating his same tired anti Republican rhetoric. Funny thing is I'm pretty moderate, not far right (for example you're farther right than me by far even though I lean conservative) but still...just him not being on topic and saying the same stupid left wing talking points over and over got irritating. So I called out how stupid he was a few times without adding anything else. Ruprecht dinged me.

Meh, is what it is. That Steve Austin turd has been banned before, will be again. Kongsdon'ttap or something was his last account.

some of these moderators could definitely be left wingers, said one thing after a long rant from libs and got deleted real quick..whatever, just hear to make money but it's hard biting your tongue sometimes..anway, what you think about Smolka and Allan TKO props

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Lol You think Evloev wins but you bet Nate because he has bigger plus number



Numbers dont fight, Evloev will win

It's about value

 

[SBJJ]

Might have gone a bit too hard on that StonecoldSteveAustin jag. Thread about student loan debt of all things LMAO and he just was repeating his same tired anti Republican rhetoric. Funny thing is I'm pretty moderate, not far right (for example you're farther right than me by far even though I lean conservative) but still...just him not being on topic and saying the same stupid left wing talking points over and over got irritating. So I called out how stupid he was a few times without adding anything else. Ruprecht dinged me.

Meh, is what it is. That Steve Austin turd has been banned before, will be again. Kongsdon'ttap or something was his last account.

Lol. Kong is priceless

 

[mkess101]

some of these moderators could definitely be left wingers, said one thing after a long rant from libs and got deleted real quick..whatever, just hear to make money but it's hard biting your tongue sometimes..anway, what you think about Smolka and Allan TKO props

Smolka...more skilled than Quinonez so possible but Smolka is infuriating because he's physically weak and seems to fold in bad spots. But again, more skilled so he could land and hurt Quinonez so if odds are good enough why not?

Allan TKO I like if he survives Rd 1. At +500 or better there's some value imo.

 

[Monster Meat]

The cancellation of the yan Sterling fight really annoyed me. Sterling at plus odds was going to be a beautiful win.

 

[mkess101]

The cancellation of the yan Sterling fight really annoyed me. Sterling at plus odds was going to be a beautiful win.

So much do I agree. Aljo straight up might be the most underrated fighter on the roster which is insane given he's a title challenger. I favor him over Yan for sure.

I think one head kick from Moraes is the only reason we aren't talking about Sterling as being in the p4p conversation right now.

 

[Monster Meat]

So much do I agree. Aljo straight up might be the most underrated fighter on the roster which is insane given he's a title challenger. I favor him over Yan for sure.

I think one head kick from Moraes is the only reason we aren't talking about Sterling as being in the p4p conversation right now.

ahhhI had Sterling in so many bets. Hopefully that fight can happen soon.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Just hammered Smolka ITD +210 and the main event o2.5 @ -135

Parlayed the 2 as well because I'm a degenerate @ +415.

Will prob just look to live bet the main event, as I think Jack wins, but Vettori should win the first few rounds, so getting Jack @ +5xx after rd2 wouldn't be a shocker.

I also played his r4/r5 line small.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I think Evloev doesn't win nearly as much as the odds indicate, thus there being value on Nate at the current odds.

This is basic shit. I'm not surprised so many people on here give you shit for being an idiot now, lol.

There is value in underdog if he has at least 25% win chance. If less than its dumb to bet him, better donate a dog shelter. Winter is coming and doggies need food.

 

[Falufalump]

Betting on OSP feels wrong here, but on the other hand he's a +153 dog against someone with effectively no UFC caliber wins. Do we think OSP is washed, is that the play?

 

[loller90278]

i could be reading the card wrong but i feel like 75% of these fights go to decision

 

[2020Tracked]

Betting on OSP feels wrong here, but on the other hand he's a +153 dog against someone with effectively no UFC caliber wins. Do we think OSP is washed, is that the play?

I think OSP is old now and generally hit or miss in fights, still a tough and tricky test but it just depends what version of him shows up and how he reacts to Hill's volume early.

Thought I would be on Hill pre-tape, still lean Hill but I haven't played it. Honestly wouldn't be surprised by Hill unloading and finishing OSP quick and easy or by OSP just doing his thing and making Hill look amateur

 

[mkess101]

I actually think I found you guys the value play of this card.

Hill dec +275

OSP gets finished sure, but almost always via grappling. He has 2 KO/TKO losses in 39 pro fights (1 in the last decade, 30+ fights). He's durable as hell. But he doesn't win decisions. Of his last 6 fights that have gone to the cards, he's 1-5. He's just too low volume to win on the cards. Hill isn't gonna look to grapple obviously, he's gonna look to stick and move. He'll respect OSP's power and grappling and be content to just outwork him. And even against inferior competition, HIll while being 7-0 has only finished 3 of those guys.

This line just screams value to me. I think this fight ends with Hill winning a dec close to 40% of the time. Maybe even almost half the time. +275 is a great line imo.