UFC on ESPN 19 Hermansson vs. Holland

[TrueAscension]

OSP sub @ 350 has more value imo than a 7 fight fighter beating OSP for 3 rounds

 

[Deleted member 316645]

There is value in underdog if he has at least 25% win chance. If less than its dumb to bet him, better donate a dog shelter. Winter is coming and doggies need food.

1% chance like most dogs

 

[mkess101]

OSP sub @ 350 has more value imo than a 7 fight fighter beating OSP for 3 rounds

Hill looks pretty polished (striking anyway) given his inexperience. OSP sub is in play for sure, Hill grappling pretty unknown and OSP obviously has shown he's a finisher on the mat.

But man he looks SO disinterested except if guys really force him to engage by being ultra aggressive. He's still dangerous for sure, esp if the fight is really taken to him. But when it's not...he seems content to plod around the outside, be super low volume, and not do a whole lot. Maybe Hill rushes in and makes it easy for OSP to take him down or counter, but that seems somewhat unlikely for Hill to do (although yeah, he's inexperienced so who knows...). OSP really pursuing the TD seems unlikely too, as does him all of a sudden throwing a lot of volume while standing.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Oh no. Version 826383 of explaining value/probability vs simple win/loss incoming...

If it needs to be explained to you why it matters betting something at +110 and not -235, you shouldn't be betting at all. Clearly probability wasnt taught in many schools.

Edit: The latest episode of "the boxing betting podcast" by Tom Craze explains this well. Amusingly id expect those who refuse to learn why probability/odds are important to not listen and those who already understand it to do so. Such is the world we live and people being proudly ignorant

So you’re saying that no one should bet on a fighter they feel will win because they couldn’t get them at plus odds before the lines changed?

not everyone has access to the lines that Sadistics and others has. End of story.

 

[DonQ94]

So you’re saying that no one should bet on a fighter they feel will win because they couldn’t get them at plus odds before the lines changed?

not everyone has access to the lines that Sadistics and others has. End of story.

It's about comparing probabilities with odds. Doesn't have to be plus odds, come on now...

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I actually think I found you guys the value play of this card.

Hill dec +275

OSP gets finished sure, but almost always via grappling. He has 2 KO/TKO losses in 39 pro fights (1 in the last decade, 30+ fights). He's durable as hell. But he doesn't win decisions. Of his last 6 fights that have gone to the cards, he's 1-5. He's just too low volume to win on the cards. Hill isn't gonna look to grapple obviously, he's gonna look to stick and move. He'll respect OSP's power and grappling and be content to just outwork him. And even against inferior competition, HIll while being 7-0 has only finished 3 of those guys.

This line just screams value to me. I think this fight ends with Hill winning a dec close to 40% of the time. Maybe even almost half the time. +275 is a great line imo.

Your analysis is not accurate. Hill has had eight professional fights and seven unique opponents (he fought William Vincent twice).

If you do not factor in his debut professional fight, he has finished four of his other six opponents by KO. The two opponents he did not finish were Dequan Townsend (who went thirty fights without being KOd before Dalcha Lungiambula did it in his UFC debut on short notice). As well as Darko Stosic who has only been finished once (by Jiri Prochazka) in 17 professional fights.

Most notably he KOd Klidson Abreu who finished Johnny Walker on the regional scene and went three rounds with Magomed Ankalaev without being finished. We should not pretend this KO did not occur because Jamahal smoked weed a few weeks before the fight.

This fight is a pickem to me but if Hill wins it will likely be by first round TKO.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

I want to see someone completely knocked out cold tonight. Like full blown unconscious. Who has the best chance of this?

 

[mkess101]

Your analysis is not accurate. Hill has had eight professional fights and seven unique opponents (he fought William Vincent twice).

If you do not factor in his debut professional fight, he has finished four of his other six opponents by KO. The two opponents he did not finish were Dequan Townsend (who went thirty fights without being KOd before Dalcha Lungiambula did it in his UFC debut on short notice). As well as Darko Stosic who has only been finished once (by Jiri Prochazka) in 17 professional fights.

Most notably he KOd Klidson Abreu who finished Johnny Walker on the regional scene and went three rounds with Magomed Ankalaev without being finished. We should not pretend this KO did not occur because Jamahal smoked weed a few weeks before the fight.

This fight is a pickem to me but if Hill wins it will likely be by first round TKO.

I'm seeing Davidson in his debut as a dec win (that you are not factoring in, which is fine I guess?) and then decision wins like you said over Townsend and Stosic plus a decision win over William Vincent in their first fight. Hill did get a TKO over him in the rematch. So he finished him once and once he didn't. I guess we pretend the first fight didn't happen?

I mean, obviously we can all have our views but is there some sort of evidence that OSP is less durable than guys like Townsend or Stosic? As I said, OSP has been finished by strikes twice in 39 pro fights, and only once in about his last 30 fights spanning 10 years. He's taken shots from true HW's like Rothwell and survived fine. Are you seeing something with OSP's durability declining rapidly that I'm not? Maybe Hill is a bit better finisher than I was stating, but then on the flipside you seem to be vastly underrating how durable OSP has been. Especially given the insanely better competition he's faced than Hill over his career.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

It's about comparing probabilities with odds. Doesn't have to be plus odds, come on now...

we’re talking about THIS specific bet, not EVERY bet. Come on now. I’m not sure why you all are acting like I’ve said, this approach applies to every single fighter or bet. That’s not what I’ve said in any way shape or form.

so I’ll repeat myself. Am I, and others suppose to not bet on a fighter we feel will win because we couldn’t get them at +110 when the lines opened (like Sadistics and others who have access to those lines) and only have them at -230?

 

[jm5000]

Took Hermanson +165

great pick man i got him at +122 i dknt know why he is such a dog. Jack by sub is +400 rn km bout to drive to jersey to get that in lol

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I'm seeing Davidson in his debut as a dec win (that you are not factoring in, which is fine I guess?) and then decision wins like you said over Townsend and Stosic plus a decision win over William Vincent in their first fight. Hill did get a TKO over him in the rematch. So he finished him once and once he didn't. I guess we pretend the first fight didn't happen?

I mean, obviously we can all have our views but is there some sort of evidence that OSP is less durable than guys like Townsend or Stosic? As I said, OSP has been finished by strikes twice in 39 pro fights, and only once in about his last 30 fights spanning 10 years. He's taken shots from true HW's like Rothwell and survived fine. Are you seeing something with OSP's durability declining rapidly that I'm not? Maybe Hill is a bit better finisher than I was stating, but then on the flipside you seem to be vastly underrating how durable OSP has been. Especially given the insanely better competition he's faced than Hill over his career.

You weren't giving Hill credit for the Klidson KO which I could not understand.

Theres a very real chance Jamahal pressures OSP early and knocks him out in the first round. The difference between him and say an Alonzo Menifield (OSPs last opponent) is his gas tank which is a lot better and him having the KO power/finishing instinct without chasing it at the risk of being finished himself.

 

[mkess101]

You weren't giving Hill credit for the Klidson KO which I could not understand.

Theres a very real chance Jamahal pressures OSP early and knocks him out in the first round. The difference between him and say an Alonzo Menifield (OSPs last opponent) is his gas tank which is a lot better and him having the KO power/finishing instinct without chasing it at the risk of being finished himself.

Yeah I missed the Kildson one for sure. Like I said, Hill is probably a bit better finisher than I gave him credit for. I just remember he really was pointfighting vs Stosic specifically.

That said, you still didn't address the fact that OSP has shown insane durability over his career, against much better competition than Hill. If Hill wasn't able to get close to finishing Stosic or Townsend, why would you be confident he will hurt OSP who's shown a more proven chin and durability than either of those guys against better competition? If I'm acknowledging Hill is probably a bit better finisher than I first gave credit for, it seems nuts that you'd ignore how durable OSP has shown himself to be.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Looking at this fight objectively, as OSP has made me good money in the past, he gets ko'd.

He has always struggled with southpaw fighters, he missed weight for the first time in his career, and he's 37.

He's getting 95k to show and 95k to win, and Hill is getting 14k to show and 14k to win. Hill is the hungrier fighter far and away.

Hill also trains with a bunch of fighters that have been on a tear, and he won't gas out after r1 like a lot of OSP's previous opponents.

I actually have 100$ on OSP +150, strongly considering cashing out and playing Hill KO +180

 

[mkess101]

Looking at this fight objectively, as OSP has made me good money in the past, he gets ko'd.

He has always struggled with southpaw fighters, he missed weight for the first time in his career, and he's 37.

He's getting 95k to show and 95k to win, and Hill is getting 14k to show and 14k to win. Hill is the hungrier fighter far and away.

Hill also trains with a bunch of fighters that have been on a tear, and he won't gas out after r1 like a lot of OSP's previous opponents.

I actually have 100$ on OSP +150, strongly considering cashing out and playing Hill KO +180

So is it just thinking that OSP's chin is gone...kinda overnight? I watched Rothwell land big shots on a tired OSP and he just ate them and kept plodding around.

I'm sure as hell not saying Hill CAN'T get a KO, but it's weird that people think it's likely. Hill isn't some monstrous puncher, he's got some pop but it's more precision and accuracy than raw power.

There's also the fact that even at his age, OSP is a big step up in competition for Hill. And a guy who's shown the ability to finish numerous times when guys get over aggressive. I think that makes it more likely that Hill stays patient and looks to pick OSP apart as opposed to wading into a firefight where he could get caught himself. Or where OSP could hit a reactive takedown and work for a sub on the mat.

IDK...guess we'll find out. I think Hill dec is more likely than him finishing though.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

So is it just thinking that OSP's chin is gone...kinda overnight? I watched Rothwell land big shots on a tired OSP and he just ate them and kept plodding around.

I'm sure as hell not saying Hill CAN'T get a KO, but it's weird that people think it's likely. Hill isn't some monstrous puncher, he's got some pop but it's more precision and accuracy than raw power.

There's also the fact that even at his age, OSP is a big step up in competition for Hill. And a guy who's shown the ability to finish numerous times when guys get over aggressive. I think that makes it more likely that Hill stays patient and looks to pick OSP apart as opposed to wading into a firefight where he could get caught himself. Or where OSP could hit a reactive takedown and work for a sub on the mat.

IDK...guess we'll find out. I think Hill dec is more likely than him finishing though.

His chin, his cardio, his motivation, and his problems with southpaw fighters in the past.

Hill has a good output and can sustain that output. He's not a Menefield who is ko or bust -- Hill can overwhelm you at any point in the fight.

If OSP somehow gets Hill down, will I be worried? Fuck yeah.

But the thing is, despite all of OSP's sub wins, he never, NEVER, shoots for TDs.

I have about 5 hours to change my bet, and I'm leaning Hill KO now, when I was on OSP earlier in the week.

 

[mkess101]

His chin, his cardio, his motivation, and his problems with southpaw fighters in the past.

Hill has a good output and can sustain that output. He's not a Menefield who is ko or bust -- Hill can overwhelm you at any point in the fight.

If OSP somehow gets Hill down, will I be worried? Fuck yeah.

But the thing is, despite all of OSP's sub wins, he never, NEVER, shoots for TDs.

I have about 5 hours to change my bet, and I'm leaning Hill KO now, when I was on OSP earlier in the week.

I agree on all but his chin. I've seen zero signs his chin is failing. Kind of the opposite. He looks bored when he's getting hit. I agree unmotivated, but he still doesn't seem like he's shopworn from the standpoint of not being able to take punches.

 

[TrueAscension]

His chin, his cardio, his motivation, and his problems with southpaw fighters in the past.

Hill has a good output and can sustain that output. He's not a Menefield who is ko or bust -- Hill can overwhelm you at any point in the fight.

If OSP somehow gets Hill down, will I be worried? Fuck yeah.

But the thing is, despite all of OSP's sub wins, he never, NEVER, shoots for TDs.

I have about 5 hours to change my bet, and I'm leaning Hill KO now, when I was on OSP earlier in the week.

he doesn’t need a takedown to sub hall

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Yeah I missed the Kildson one for sure. Like I said, Hill is probably a bit better finisher than I gave him credit for. I just remember he really was pointfighting vs Stosic specifically.

That said, you still didn't address the fact that OSP has shown insane durability over his career, against much better competition than Hill. If Hill wasn't able to get close to finishing Stosic or Townsend, why would you be confident he will hurt OSP who's shown a more proven chin and durability than either of those guys against better competition? If I'm acknowledging Hill is probably a bit better finisher than I first gave credit for, it seems nuts that you'd ignore how durable OSP has shown himself to be.

I give OSP a lot credit for his durability and considering how he handled his last opponent who was a similar type of fighter (with a much lower fight iq and gas tank) I would not bet against him. The fight is a pickem in my opinion, but the fight going the distance is slim.

OSP is going to have those submissions in round two and three, but Hill will still have his knockout power as well. Whoever gets hurt first is going to be finished thats all I was saying.

RE Townsend, my point was he may have not been a UFC caliber fighter, but he was not an easy guy to finish (he went thirty pro fights without being KOd) and the same goes for Stosic who was only finished once over 17 pro fights.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Jimmy vs Cody is off! not covid related!

 

[BigSteve]

Santos and Evloev fights off