In my experience most clueless people let you take their back very easily, so I believe it would happen quite regularly in my opinion.Its nice to think that and that there is a replicable formula for winning such as duck under, take the back, get a takedown and back control and go for a choke that even a small highly trained female could use to beat a larger man but there are too many variables to say it would happen regularly.
In addition to the real fights I have grappled/sparred with bigger, stronger, more athletic untrained friends many times for fun, and it almost always followed the same pattern.
Shoot for a single or double takedown attempt or go gor a double underhook clinch takedown > if it works good, if they are able to stuff it instincitvely they still leave huge opening for the back in the process.
But if it fails you have plenty of other options and back up plan, that's just the easiest path for victory but if it failed it doesn't mean an high level female grappler is going to be toast.
Even is she ends up on the bottom there are proven and pretty reliable ways to survive the ground and pound attempt of someone much bigger and stronger, stay safe until he gas and eventually turn the table (single leg x sweeps to leg locks transition if he stands up being the most effective imho), this assuming she train MMA or self defense BJJ and not just butt scooting sport BJJ like I specified earlier.
I also had a 200 + lbs guy stand-up with me on his back in a fight, I removed my hooks and went back to the rear clinch, he trashed around for a bit with me staying glued to him, than I rear double leg and made him fall, he landed an all fours and I jumped on his back again and this time locked the choke.People can still instinctively protect and power out for the first minute or two at least even if she somehow got the back but most likely it would be like a flag in the wind hanging of his back on the feet and then getting thrown off.
With the choke locked I was able to prevent a second stand-up attempt by yanking backwards on his neck.
I'm saying that it's what is going to happen everytime in detail? Of course not.
It's just an example to illustrate the more general point that a trained grappler who remain lucid and calm has plenty of options to keep control of the situation and not end up in bad spot when the other guy stand up from back control, even if there is a very big size and strengh difference.
Far beyond the average hobbyst female black belt? Yes, absolutely.You doing it as a guy is still athletically and strength wise still far beyond the average female blackbelt even as just a 130 teenager. It would be nice to think a female could replicate though and I agree that this is roughly the formula she should use in 1 v 1 self defence, and learn a solid right hook would also be a good idea.
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But if we are talking about high level female athletes that also does strenght and condition training, which is pretty much the point of the debate since it started talking about Mckienze Dern, I'm sure you can find many of them who are not very far from how I was or even superior.
I believe you are understimating how wide the individuals differences among females are, they are not all weak and slow like the average girl, I never met an high level female grappling competitor but I have met good level female athletes in other sports unrelated to fighting and they are insanely far beyond your average girl as far as strenght, speed and coordination go.
I'm pretty sure an high level female athlete with grappling training should be able to replicate what I did just the same.