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Yes he was highly favored. I had him in some nice parlays for that card.
Bet the draw! +8000
Umar lays on him 1.5 rounds. Sergey lays on him 1.5 rounds. It's settled.
UFC Fight Night 185: Chiesa vs. Magny
- Thread starter BigSteve
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Bet the draw! +8000
Umar lays on him 1.5 rounds. Sergey lays on him 1.5 rounds. It's settled.
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Mma scoring doesnt work like that, you need a point deduction or a 10-8 round
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Anyone like Mason jones at +140?
Making his debut with an undefeated record and holding two belts in Cage Warriors suggests he isn't a bum and Davis' UFC record (one sided beatdown of Thomas Gifford and an understandable loss to Gilbert Burns) doesn't necessarily impress me. Is there something I'm missing that puts Davis as a favorite?
Making his debut with an undefeated record and holding two belts in Cage Warriors suggests he isn't a bum and Davis' UFC record (one sided beatdown of Thomas Gifford and an understandable loss to Gilbert Burns) doesn't necessarily impress me. Is there something I'm missing that puts Davis as a favorite?
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Line just dropped to -160 for Davis and I'm excited about it. Davis edges Jones in pretty much everywhere in my opinion. I expect a striking battle and Davis wins that fairly convincingly.
Looking at their records I get why you'd think this. But watching Jones fight, he's not that impressive. Has some power but is kind of slow and hittable. I think Davis is a much better striker and lights him up on the feet.
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Just looking at records is never a good idea for capping fights, but I do believe the line is too wide. Davis is more explosive and technical in his striking, but I think Jones is the tougher and more complete fighter.
An interesting part of the matchup is the fact that Jones likes to throw a lot of hard leg kicks and Davis doesn't seem to check any.
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I mean you can't just look at the records and make a decision that way.
Watch them fight, also just imagine what Gilbert Burns would do to Mason Jones.
I think Mason has grit, he'll tough out a hard fight, he will grind and he will try and pull people into deep waters but I think Davis is faster, more athletic more powerful and probably just an all round better MMA fighter.
Mason has fought Cage Warriors level competition, they are all pretty much bums.
I think there is a path for Mason, he has momentum on his side and Davis is coming off a long lay off and some injuries.
The fight reminds me a little of Gaethje debuting against Michael Johnson, only I don't personally see the come back win, I think Mason gets beat up for 3 and could even get finished
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I think Mason Jones would do better in the grappling department against Burns than Davis did. He's pretty crafty and has a BJJ black belt if im not mistaken. The Gaethje comparison is very canny though. He reminded me of him also when I watched the tape.
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to me it seems like mason jones will catch a BEATDOWN against davis. thinking of doing a number of parlays because at the size of my units there's not much point in betting any favorite. tempted to go with chiesa and akhmedov for a juicy multiplier
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you get the point bro. bet the draw.
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Here are some lines i'm looking at that I see some potential in.
Mike Davis -1.53
Ricky Simon -1.21 - will look at ITD lines as others have mentioned
Omari Akmedov +2.28 I think is the best live dog of the card.
Tyson Nam -1.72 Maybe KO line as Schnell has shown to be chinny and Nam can crack.
Viviane Araujo -1.26
Michael Chisea +2.08 also by sub +4.33 I think he looks a lot stronger/better cardio at 170, I think he will manhandle Neil to a early sub.
Curious on what people think of these picks.
Mike Davis -1.53
Ricky Simon -1.21 - will look at ITD lines as others have mentioned
Omari Akmedov +2.28 I think is the best live dog of the card.
Tyson Nam -1.72 Maybe KO line as Schnell has shown to be chinny and Nam can crack.
Viviane Araujo -1.26
Michael Chisea +2.08 also by sub +4.33 I think he looks a lot stronger/better cardio at 170, I think he will manhandle Neil to a early sub.
Curious on what people think of these picks.
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I think beating 3 fighters that are literally former shells of themselves isn't a great accomplishment but Chiesa does look good at 170. FGTD is -150, could be a good parlay with Conor ITD or if you fancy Dustin ITD. Who do you think has better fight IQ between Magny and Chiesa / shown better fight IQ in recent time.
D
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...since when? Even in his most recent fight against Weidman, he took him down. Weidman popped back up, but if he's shooting for TD's against an elite wrestler/grappler, he'll sure as hell be looking for them against an inferior one in Tom Breese.
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He didn’t take down vetorri or boetsch
D
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Boetsch, if I remember correctly, got his nose broken rather early on by Akhmedov who went on and dominated him en route to a 30-27.
Going to a draw with Vettori would be a dream for Breese, the pinnacle of his career.
If he doesn't mix in at least a few takedowns against Breese I'd be shocked.
Breese will never be an even top 25 middleweight.
If you're on Breese, that's cool. What do you think his path to victory is? Honestly curious, as most people on here seem to be on Akhmedov.
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I like them all to win apart from Chiesa. I bet Chiesa when it was a 3 rounder but 5 rounds favours Magny.
Magny went away for two years and came back looking great, and we maybe haven't seen everything new he has to show.
Chiesa is still basic in his striking and even though he is a good grappler he makes a lot of mistakes on the mat and gets into bad positions. Condit in the first round had some decent sub attempts off of his back.
Magny's last 3 wins vs Chiesa's I prefer Magnys - Rocco Martin, the Leech and Lawler, 2 guys in their prime and career vest from and 1 declined legend. Chiesa beats Sanchez and Condit, both old and washed and bear retirement, and RDA who has peaked but is still good but it's a terrible style match up for RDA.
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Breeses PTV would be to stick n move on the outside with his hands or catch Omari with a sub(doubt this one), but Omari will be very agressive and probably catch him with a bomb or catch him with his back against the cage for some grindin, Omari dominates this with forward agression, mixin takedowns and has the GNP/SUB PTV aswell as a grindy dec. I'm big on Omari for this one. I think a safe bet here could be fight goes over 2.5.
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Some great points there, you may have me swaying towards Magny there, I'll rewatch some of there most recent fights, I like Magny late Tko/dec as alternate picks instead of a Chiesa Sub.
D
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I mean on the last card, Melo vs Moras was by far the worst fight I've seen in a long ass time, and Melo had great value. So you may be correct.
Still super torn on the main event. Taping it, they both have a lot of weaknesses, Chiesa moreso, but Chiesa is strong and dominant at WW.
Magny loves the clinch, but is overpowered in it a lot. Chiesa will be by far the bigger man come fight night, and his size advantage may just give him the edge, even in a five round fight.
Technically, Magny is way better on the feet, throws more volume, mixes it up way more than Chiesa does. But Magny has pretty fucking bad TDD.
He relies on volume, insane cardio, and grit to win most of his fights.
The more I think about it, I just don't see him stopping Chiesa from taking him down. And I don't see Magny being able to control Chiesa if he manages to get Chiesa down in the later rounds.
The over might be the play here, still deciding, kind of hoping more money comes in on Magny. I'd much rather play Chiesa with a +150 price tag.
