UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

Hellowhosthat said:
I like Landwehr, Oleinik and Sabatini as dogs.

Oleinik I think is the more risky one just because the wheels can fall off at any time at his age, but I think he has a huge advantage on the ground and the striking style he employed in the Werdum fight might allow him to get inside to get it there.
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I am impressed by Sabatini, but am hesitating on pulling the trigger. I want to see how they look when they square up at faceoffs, as Alves can be a LW and I think Sabatini could cut down to BW. I am wondering if the best way to play is to see if Sabatini can wrestle Alves successfully in R1 and slow him down and kill his power and gas him out. Alves will have the speed and power advantage early, but I think Sabatini is the better fighter technically and the better gas tank, but then again Alves has faced better competition.
 
longway said:
Can someone tell me why the odds between Casey O Neil and Shana Dobson is narrowing? Not much tape on O' Neil, but she has a clear PTV using her grappling. Seems like a gift, but is it just too good to be true?
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Agree that her offensive wrestling seems competent, but her stand up is trash, she's super unathletic and hittable, and she's beaten only cans that her dad hand selected for her when she was in Eternal.
 
SolarSeiko said:
is this one of those fights where AA is supposed to lose and then wins a fucking decision?
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Exactly. I haven't watched tape on the kid but AA has really perfected his new style of boxing to a decision. I love him at +200.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Exactly. I haven't watched tape on the kid but AA has really perfected his new style of boxing to a decision. I love him at +200.
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same. and its all that UFC level exp AA has + working with Paulinho for boxing (masvidal's long time boxing coach at ATT)

I don't think Tom has even fought a 3rd round. Majority of his fights are rd1 finishes. It actually looks like any time (2x) hes gone past the 1st round, hes lost lol. oooh might have to drop money on AA or fight over 2.5. AA by dec is +350 right now
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Agree that her offensive wrestling seems competent, but her stand up is trash, she's super unathletic and hittable, and she's beaten only cans that her dad hand selected for her when she was in Eternal.
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Watched her fight against mceven (5-1) and her striking looked pretty decent in that fight.

Its dobson thats been can crushing, outside of agapova she has never won against a fighter with a winning record.
 
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Watching Helwani's interview with Blaydes, "I've never once spoke with Dana White in person, and I don't think he even has my number"

Goddamn.

And I haven't heard Blaydes talk much...does he always stutter and have trouble finding words?

It seems like early CTE, maybe he's always been this way. He stutters A LOT. And I like the guy, I'm not trying to make fun of him, honestly curious.
 
Invictis said:
Watching Helwani's interview with Blaydes, "I've never once spoke with Dana White in person, and I don't think he even has my number"

Goddamn.

And I haven't heard Blaydes talk much...does he always stutter and have trouble finding words?

It seems like early CTE, maybe he's always been this way. He stutters A LOT. And I like the guy, I'm not trying to make fun of him, honestly curious.
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He's had a speech impediment all of his life
 
Invictis said:
Watching Helwani's interview with Blaydes, "I've never once spoke with Dana White in person, and I don't think he even has my number"

Goddamn.

And I haven't heard Blaydes talk much...does he always stutter and have trouble finding words?

It seems like early CTE, maybe he's always been this way. He stutters A LOT. And I like the guy, I'm not trying to make fun of him, honestly curious.
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This sounds like something that could be nerves? I'll have to watch for myself. I don't think it'd be uncommon for a guy like himself to get incredibly nervous about the media requirements, especially when you're discussing your boss like that.

*after writing the above, I went and skimmed. Nothing stuck out to me as being odd in terms of his speech (aside from the rooting for black fighters because they're black part... but that's a convo for the war room).

I could definitely see Beast clipping him, but I really doubt it happens. If he gets taken down (which I assume we all think happens), his gas tank is going to rapidly empty. If that happens, I kind of expect it to just be a ground and pound TKO with an exhausted Beast just turtling up.
 
Invictis said:
Watching Helwani's interview with Blaydes, "I've never once spoke with Dana White in person, and I don't think he even has my number"

Goddamn.

And I haven't heard Blaydes talk much...does he always stutter and have trouble finding words?

It seems like early CTE, maybe he's always been this way. He stutters A LOT. And I like the guy, I'm not trying to make fun of him, honestly curious.
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Yeah he seems a little shy around the media, make sense though. Like 2020tracked said I'm pretty sure he has had that stutter his whole life.
 
Vanderaas decision line seems super wide to me. +1140. This may end up being a close fight and my reference point would be Spivak vs tybura. The bigger better grappler in tybura was able to take Spivak down and control him for much of the fight.

spivak didn’t offer much in terms of get ups and was pretty mediocre off his back. He tends to tire in the later rounds and vanderaa could replicate what tybura did and I’d give him the edge in cardio

spivak is the better striker but I don’t think it’s a total wash on the feet. I’m willing to take the risk that vanderaa is a better grappler than spivak at these prices. Black belt vs blue belt. I don’t put much stock in belt colors though.

vanderaa could control him against the fence for periods of time. Spivak doesn’t really pummel for under hooks and is there to be controlled.

May even end up on the money line
 
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Ryan Kelly said:
Agree that her offensive wrestling seems competent, but her stand up is trash, she's super unathletic and hittable, and she's beaten only cans that her dad hand selected for her when she was in Eternal.
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Yeah, I am getting the picture of why O'Neil is being faded. I don't disagree with the assessment of her, to a point, as she has also beaten a fighter in ADW with a decent record, and supposedly heavy-handed. But everyone also notes that her wrestling and jits are good enough to get this fight on the ground. Her PTV is very clear, and Dobson has never stopped a TD, it's incredible how bad her TDD is. AFAICS, its Dobson KO or bust, and that window is likely limited to R1. If this were kickboxing I would bet Dobson at these odds, no problem, but MMA? I still can't see it.
 
2 of my favourite round one sub or bust fighters on the same card in Minner and Oleinik. Minner especially
 
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I think Casey is worth a play at -158. Thinking of parlaying her and Nate.
 
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