UFC Fight Night - Barboza vs Chikadze - Offical discussion

Some thoughts on this Lee/Rod fight.

Lee almost always wins round 1. He has finished Cheisa and GG in round 1. He won round 1 off Ferg, RDA and Al as well as others. I think you wait to see how round 1 goes, how Rod is defending tds and how Lee looks in round 1. If he wins round 1 like he has many other times then Rod will be nice odds going into round 2.

Another factor here is this is 3 rounds. Lee has gassed in 5 rounders, and his gas tank as a whole is questionable but he really needs to just bank the first two rounds here. If some of those others were just 3 rounders instead of 5 Lee could have more wins on his record.

For me the angle is wait to see to see how round 1 goes then maybe look to live bet Rod at better odds going into round 1. Lee getting a early finish isnt out the question either if he can get the back of Rod, Lee has great back control when he is fresh. I would also maybe sprinkle a little on Rod round 1 incase he sparks Lee early, if not then the angle to live bet him at good odds going into round 2 is the angle for me.

Just also realized fight doesn’t start round 2 could get a little sprinkle for me. It’s +275 and that covers a round 1 finish for both Lee and Rod. If not then I see Lee most likely winning round 1 then will see if I want to bet Rod depending on what odds are going into round 2.
 
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TrueAscension said:
Just to play devil's advocate here, where are we getting the idea that Lee is shot? Without recently taping, he looked pretty good against Oliviera in the first round before he got snatched up no? He also fucked Gillespie up hard. Rodriguez Is a pretty cool, hard striker but he was losing to Dwight Grant before he scored a TKO on the Edgar card if I recall (again haven't taped recently) and has the tendency to gas. I may go against my earlier post and put a couple Gs down on Lee here, this is a big step up in competition for Rodriguez who I don't find to be a very multi-dimensional fighter. If the fight goes to the ground, I think we see a pretty quick tie up sub for Lee.
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He had double knee surgery didn’t he?
 
TrueAscension said:
Just to play devil's advocate here, where are we getting the idea that Lee is shot? Without recently taping, he looked pretty good against Oliviera in the first round before he got snatched up no? He also fucked Gillespie up hard. Rodriguez Is a pretty cool, hard striker but he was losing to Dwight Grant before he scored a TKO on the Edgar card if I recall (again haven't taped recently) and has the tendency to gas. I may go against my earlier post and put a couple Gs down on Lee here, this is a big step up in competition for Rodriguez who I don't find to be a very multi-dimensional fighter. If the fight goes to the ground, I think we see a pretty quick tie up sub for Lee.
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All great points. I just have this feeling Lee is fade material. How’s that for some super sharp high level capping? Good point about GG who I rate highly and I was on the wrong side of that one.
 
@Boxing Expert 101 nailed this one pretty good with Lee/Drod.

Lee has basically looked great in every Rd 1 he's had. And he's faded to varying degrees after that in almost all his fights outside of the Barbosa fight (and even in that one he got head kicked hard later in the fight and did the stanky leg badly before recovering and winning the decision).

I also don't like Lee's long layoff nor him having surgeries lately. He could look like a world beater with an early finish, or like he's shot. No clue.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I wish my bookie gave prop-bets, Alvey/Turman over 2.5 looks pretty good at the -110/-130 range. Second your Edson call, and, while I do think Lee wins, I can easily see him losing.

There's a bunch of fights here that seem like toss-ups for me. Even those TUF finals since I didn't keep up with this season. Emmers and Barboza are probably the only two guys I'll play. Maybe Mana and Jacoby too.
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I grabbed Jacoby at - 175 parlayed with a random euro basketball team.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
All great points. I just have this feeling Lee is fade material. How’s that for some super sharp high level capping? Good point about GG who I rate highly and I was on the wrong side of that one.
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SO WAS I lol
 
Interesting note, D-Rod has had 7 fights since Kevin Lee last fought, started his career as a middleweight, no doubt is still a middle weight that cuts down. Cant honestly see anyone wanting to play Kevin when D-Rod has been near perfect besides one fight. Bottom game and guillotine choke is solid, definitely going to have a strength advantage.
 
svmr_db said:
If you're thinking of taking Lee, take him by decision around +200. He's not finishing D-Rod, take it to the bank.
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Lee is coming off of double knee surgery & Lee always fades after the first round. Perhaps Lee Round 1 finish is the play. Actually, the play may be taking Rodriguez at plus money instead.



I have not looked at tape yet. I'm not sure who I'm picking to win & I probably will not be betting this fight with so many questions about Lee.
 
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Omni1 said:
Lee is coming off of double knee surgery & Lee always fades after the first round. Perhaps Lee Round 1 finish is the play. Actually, the play may be taking Rodriguez at plus money instead.



I have not looked at tape yet. I'm not sure who I'm picking to win & I probably will not be betting this fight with so many questions about Lee.
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what about FDNGTD. Either Kev finishes him early or Drod dismantles him.

A degen play would be D-rod by submission. $25 to return $375.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
I am surprised that Giga is the slight underdog on this fight card. I mean i am not surprised to see Edson as the favorite but a draw can happen.

I will be favoring Giga slightly. I wont be surprised if Edson wins a Dec or a Draw here. Maybe on a card like this dont go to heavy with the main event?
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what you're telling me is to bet the draw but parlay it with D-rod ITD.
 
SolarSeiko said:
?
what about FDNGTD. Either Kev finishes him early or Drod dismantles him.

A degen play would be D-rod by submission. $25 to return $375.
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Lee by Sub if Lee takes drod to the ground.
But if Lee doesn't take him down. Go with the dec. I dont know for which side Lee could also find a Dec here as well but Drod is getting disrespected by some. Drod could also earn a dec.

"Lee by ITD"
 
Di Chirico has no place losing to Al Hassan. Never been stopped and Razaks looked like shit and against not-great competition. For some reason I still have bad feeling playing the Italian.
 
sonhow said:
Di Chirico has no place losing to Al Hassan. Never been stopped and Razaks looked like shit and against not-great competition. For some reason I still have bad feeling playing the Italian.
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could always live bet him after first round to avoid most of razak's win condition, but i think chirico rolls. if he's smart he'll also use his wrestling which i think will have great success.
 
Muradov is 5:1 favorite ATM...... He should def win and by TKO IMO but mannnn those are some wide odds. Gerald is underrated and way better than his UFC record not long ago he got robbed against Holland and Anders
 
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