My 2 cents on this card:
Guido/Mana: This kid really has one-punch KO power. Taped him for Contender but didnt notice it as much. Guido has about a round and a half of cardio, although he is very athletic and dangerous while fresh. He is also hittable and chinny. Guido could wrestle early but everyone tries that against Mana. Turcio did it and so did Rivera. Mana got up and blasted them after. I think same thing happens here. Mana by finish, U2.5 and lil sprinkle on Mana RD1 KO. He could get a sub but il take the risk for a small sprinkle. Lil nervous about Manas coach passing away a week ago.
Emmers/Pat: Got 1u on Emmers at 1.72. Wish I got him at pick em odds, I think current odds are pretty accurate. Also wish there was more footage of someone wrestling Emmers, Iv seen Machado dump him twice and Emmers explode on top instantly. He seems like the wrestler type that can get taken down despite his credentials. But he has a standup, cardio, athletism, and volume advantage. Pat needs to grind here, which I think is a pretty slim path, but I need more tape to go bigger than a unit. Also Emmers will probably choose to wrestle when he shouldn't, just like how he keeps it standing when he should be wrestling lol.
Jacoby/Dentist: Thought Jacoby was a lock here pre-tape. He still could be but at these odds I hate how he keeps fights close. He always has the better striking, but he mostly calf kicks and jabs. Stewart's volume is even worse than Jacoby but if he throws a few big hooks occasionally he could steal round in the eyes of dodgy judges. Pretty bad matchup for Stewart who never really seems to have a game plan, I might still hit Jacoby in a way and hedge with Steward DEC which is his only path in my opinion. Jacoby is tough.
Alvey/Turman: Good matchup for Alvey and a step-down. Turman will try clinch and takedown Alvey which is a very hard task. Turman gasses and gets very sloppy and hitatble. He also doesn't hit hard and when he does get the back he keeps falling off which is embarrassing for a black belt. This could still be close due to Alvey fighting like a ginger Woodley, so I only have half a unit at 2.45.
Muradov/GM3: pretty straightforward fight. I have been fading GM3 since the beginning due to him fighting like he is in slow motion and having no striking defence and suspect chin. Lost money in the Winn, Piechota, and Giles fights. Then Heinich of all people took advantage of those flaws lol. GM3 seems susceptible to the overhand, Muradov has a massive speed advantage and great TDD. Rough matchup for Gm3 but not sure where the value lies.
Petroski/Gillmore: Petroskis line is way too wide. In my opinion, he is a scrub, but they are feeding him a can here, and Petroski has shown that he can at least win against those. All of Gilmore loses are buy sub, I have only seen 2 though. This should be a pass, iv seen some regional bums get up and make Petroski work even though hes an elite wrestler, so the under is a risk too. Petroski by finish at -200 if you want a juiced parlay piece lol.
Lee/D-Rod: Wrote my opinion on this fight a couple of pages back. Lots of unknowns, love betting D-rod because he fights for your money, has volume toughness good IQ, the opposite of Lee. But Lee is a massive step up for him. Massive red flags with 2 ACL surgeries and moving up for Lee too. Might leave half a unit on D-Rod, might just cash it all out and enjoy and live bet D-Rod after first.
