Bellator 255: Pitbull vs Sanchez 2

[Sono07]

9/10 of Jordan’s posts consist of him trolling this board or arguing with paul

Fair point but he was spot on about Worthy's chin. Just checking to see if this is a 10% post or the other 90%.

 

[Jordan3399]

9/10 of Jordan’s posts consist of him trolling this board or arguing with paul

I do not know what you are talking about.

 

[Jordan3399]

You think he has it in him? Seems like the guy only has one solid round of cardio these days. His last legitimate win was nearly 5 years ago and even that was a split decision. He probably still has a striking advantage but I think Gonzalez just out works and probably out wrestles him here.

I think Huerta has enough in him that playing an inexperienced and not very well rounded wrestler as a massive fav is a bad idea. The competitive round with Pitbull is more meaningful than anything Gonzalez has ever achieved. Gonzalez is unlikely to get a finish if Outlaw couldn't so the finishing upside is likely all with Huerta, Gonzalez striking and BJJ hasn't got much to it.

Huerta's name value cost him a lot getting him tougher opponents than he should have but I don't think he's totally shot. Also don't feel like betting on him when he probably gets outwrestled for 15 minutes again, if the line widens I might stab it though.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Murtazaliev was really gased in round 2 in the dolloway fight. I wonder if he improved his cardio

 

[Stat_Collector]

notice a k1 belt from Jose Augosto Barros, perhaps amateur or pro muay thai in brazil. Definitely has the better kicks, I can see him beating wilson.

 

[Stat_Collector]

78% on Watanabe over Lara?

If I recall right Huerta had okay first round vs older Freire but even then got knocked out.

I'm kind of curious why you think Lara is better than Watanabe?

They both seem even on the feet, but Watanabe has much better takedowns with her Judo black belt.

She also has imo better work ethic, as her strength and conditioning is top notch.



Although Lara is in good shape I think you can see a difference.



Some people are going to roll their eyes at me and say stuff like' what does physique have to do with anything?'

to me it shows who has better discipline and being better condition means more strength to use in grappling which is good for maintaining top control. Reference the fight with Jin yu Fry where she won with her top ctrl and superior conditioning. I will probably not put Watanabe in all my parlays but she is a good underdog, an undefeated fighter with good conditioning and a judo blackbelt.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Nothing is 100% accurate or we would be loaded and bookies wouldnt exist

I doubt they send out reliable info either

A better rule for me is more total bets on fighter A, but more money on fighter B. Take fighter B

But general rule, fade public sentiment. Works in stocks, works on betting 2 team sports, it works. Majority if people are wrong majority of the time...

So you must be up huge betting lifetime if it works then right?

 

[sonhow]

I'm kind of curious why you think Lara is better than Watanabe?

They both seem even on the feet, but Watanabe has much better takedowns with her Judo black belt.

She also has imo better work ethic, as her strength and conditioning is top notch.



Although Lara is in good shape I think you can see a difference.



Some people are going to roll their eyes at me and say stuff like' what does physique have to do with anything?'

to me it shows who has better discipline and being better condition means more strength to use in grappling which is good for maintaining top control. Reference the fight with Jin yu Fry where she won with her top ctrl and superior conditioning. I will probably not put Watanabe in all my parlays but she is a good underdog, an undefeated fighter with good conditioning and a judo blackbelt.

Just that odds were not on line with that pick %.

 

[sonhow]

I wonder if @Sadistics has a strong lean for Jackson vs Gracie..?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Just that odds were not on line with that pick %.

Ah ok. Misinterpreted that.

 

[BigSteve]

not impressed with this Gonzales at all. Good Greco wrestling but does nothing on top, hence all decision and a couple of splits. Even lets his low-level opponents to stand back up constantly. Huerta is still scrappy and is hard to hold down. He should absolutely piece him up on the feet. Gonzales is green but still swings bomb and Huerta has always been hittable. Big pass unless odds widen

 

[Sadistics]

I wonder if @Sadistics has a strong lean for Jackson vs Gracie..?

Still gotta get to that. If I have any strong feelings after I'll get back to you

 

[Brockstar]

I wonder if @Sadistics has a strong lean for Jackson vs Gracie..?

All 13 MMAjunkie staff picks are for Gracie.

On a pick’em fight that doesn’t add up.

I feel like I should be hammering Gracie based on a unanimous pick.

 

[epluribusunum]

78% on Watanabe over Lara?

I'm betting the house on Lara. I rewatched their last two fights and I can't see how Watanabe can win this fight. She might have a chance if she used her hand speed and tried to outpoint Lara, but that's not her game. I'm guessing most of these pollsters know nothing of either fighter.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

All 13 MMAjunkie staff picks are for Gracie.

On a pick’em fight that doesn’t add up.

I feel like I should be hammering Gracie based on a unanimous pick.

80% of the picks on tapology are on him too. 700 or so voted.

He opened at +160ish.

Based on the limited tape I've seen of Jackson, and his last fight with Benson, I'd lean Jackson.

Solid cardio, good ground game and TDD, and power in his hands. His loss against Ed Ruth was a robbery, too.

That being said I placed a $75 bet on Gracie earlier in the week. I can cash out for the full price, I'm still torn though.

One bad scramble and Jackson loses. And his KO power is there, but it's more of like knockdown power. He's not a KO artist, just has brute power and pretty good technique.

I usually get fucked on Bellator events. I've been watching Boardwalk Empire recently, and Arnold Rothstein says, "Do you know why I'm a successful gambler? Because I never bet on an event who's outcome I'm not sure of in advance".

Usually I'd make a bunch of degen plays with limited information, but I'm going to start trusting my leans more, and gravitating around them and just playing 2 fights a card or so.

 

[sonhow]

I think it's obvious that either Jackson sprawls and brawls to win or Gracie can take him down. The thing is I'm not sure how good Jackson's tdd is based on that Bendo fight (since Bendo is undersized and past his best days). Gracie had no trouble with Fitch though Jon never had the absolutely best tdd himself and was in his 40's.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I think it's obvious that either Jackson sprawls and brawls to win or Gracie can take him down. The thing is I'm not sure how good Jackson's tdd is based on that Bendo fight (since Bendo is undersized and past his best days). Gracie had no trouble with Fitch though Jon never had the absolutely best tdd himself and was in his 40's.

I can see a scenario where Jackson catches Gracie in a sprawl with a big shot and puts him away.

Jackson trains heavily with Rory, who beat Gracie rather easily over 5 rounds.

Jackson isn't Rory by any means, but he has shown improvements in every fight he's had.

I'm cashing out of my Gracie bet, as I'm leaning Jackson now.

My only concern is his fight IQ -- he's been making strides in his ground game, and has been showcasing it his past few fights. Taking Benson down despite battering on the feet, just to show he can. One lapse in judgement like that versus Gracie will cost him the fight.

I think I'm just going to play u4.5 in the ME @ +135, and that'll be it for the night.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I can see a scenario where Jackson catches Gracie in a sprawl with a big shot and puts him away.

Jackson trains heavily with Rory, who beat Gracie rather easily over 5 rounds.

Jackson isn't Rory by any means, but he has shown improvements in every fight he's had.

I'm cashing out of my Gracie bet, as I'm leaning Jackson now.

My only concern is his fight IQ -- he's been making strides in his ground game, and has been showcasing it his past few fights. Taking Benson down despite battering on the feet, just to show he can. One lapse in judgement like that versus Gracie will cost him the fight.

I think I'm just going to play u4.5 in the ME @ +135, and that'll be it for the night.

Its a risky bet, this fight and the watanabe fight and the main event is the riskiest bet , but i do feel like this fight will be the one that will split the winners from the losers.

 

[rille31]

watanabe lana got split decision written all over it.

 

[Oblivian]

So what's the deal with watching this? On my guide, it shows about a one hour block for Freire/Sanchez which I assume is the main event. Is the rest only streaming on the Showtime App?