News Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida set for UFC 299 on March 9th

[mjfan23]

Great matchup. Between this and sergei vs Tom fight ufc is doing great he match making and less over matched geriatrics

 

[The Bloody Nine]

I'd be fine with it if you could actually do it, I'm not afraid of growth, but I'm not going to go back and forth with you on nonsense like Gane hasn't had favorable matchups because he fought Jon Jones for the championship.

You know I'm not calling Jones an easy matchup for Gane but you present it like I do.

I'd rather you made real points but you do you.

Your entire argument is that the UFC don't want Blaydes to be champ because Francis and Jones and tough fights, or something.

Sorry, but you're a 'tard. No offence.

 

[Koala]

Isn't a big wrestler with good ground control the worst match-up for Almeida?

 

[Mmmmmmma1234]

That's the right match up to make. We get to see if Jailton is actually a legit contender or pretender.

It's terrible matchmaking Almeida should be fighting Gane.

This is the shady stuff the UFC does next they'll bully Aspinall into defending the interim champion vs Gane.

 

[aogiri]

Good. We get to see exactly where Jailton stacks in this division. Still picking Jailton but there are too many unknowns to be even semi confidant with my pick.

 

[SuperNerd]

I have to see the copium after Jailton sits on his chest for 15 mins.

I really wanted this fight.

 

[Goldentrophy]

I guess Aspinall will have to defend his Interim belt vs the winner of this. If Curtis wins it's a run back to right the wrong of the freak injury loss and if Almeida wins it would be a great defence vs a guy on a big win streak with reputable recent wins.

Gane can fight Sergei.

 

[Safton]

Great matchup, I can't recall ever seeing Blaydes on his back, any examples of him in guard?

Breakdown from an old thread where I sorta touched on this in the spoiler tag.

Spoiler

Curtis's low TDD stat is deceptive. I went back and watched all of Blaydes' old fights and the official stats are outright wrong; for instance they didn't credit him with a takedown he stuffed and and awarded one guy with a phantom TD against him that just legitimately never happened during the fight. Furthermore, pretty much every time he did get taken down he immediately scrambled back to his feet. He has like 33 seconds of combined bottom time across his entire UFC career. That is fourth lowest total bottom time and third lowest bottom time percentage on the Heavyweight roster. The only fight where anyone has had any real success grappling offensively against Blaydes was the Cody East bout and Curtis ultimately won the wrestling exchanges down the stretch; the fight ended with East desperately shooting on Blaydes, getting stuffed, and Curtis finishing him with hellbows to the dome from the sprawl. East didn't have a great UFC stint, but he was a New Mexico state wrestling champ and Jackson-Wink product.

A green Curtis showed zero fear of Oleinik's guard -- and that was a much less shopworn version of the Boa Constrictor who was still managing to pick up regular wins inside the promotion. Curtis took him down multiple times and effortlessly stuffed Aleksei's own takedown & submission attempts. He shucked off a triangle, a headlock/guillotine, and an armbar. At one point he thwarted Oleinik's sub (think it was the armbar, but may have been a triangle) and then sliced through his guard into side control to begin landing GnP. Curtis also defended a guillotine against Overeem -- the same guy who has like eight wins via guillotine across his career and subbed all of his opponents with that same choke to win the ADCC European Trials back in the day. Volkov attempted a kimura and guillotine against Blaydes in their fight as well IIRC.

Is Almeida more dangerous than any of these guys on the mat? Absolutely. But I still sort of like Curtis here. He hasn't given me any significant reason to doubt his defensive grappling though I do fear his overall grappling skill set has atrophied over the years due to his training methodology and EFT's influence. This, along with his consistent lapses in fight IQ, have me very concerned.

That being said, every time Blaydes gets booked against a guy with a dangerous ground game he does the same thing: he goes down to Austin, TX to put in work at B Team Jiu-Jitsu with Nicky Rod. Nicky Rod is legitimately one of the best no-gi submission grapplers on the planet right now and is also an ideal training partner to simulate Jailton's style: similar physical build, absolute freak athlete, stud collegiate wrestler with good lower-body entries, and excellent back-takes.

Despite being a big fan of Jailton and having immensely enjoyed witnessing his ascension, I don't like what I've seen from him if he can't force the fight to the mat and keep it there. His striking is crude; I call it "car crash stand-up". He relies on his raw athleticism, the threat of the takedown, and loading up on everything with a bit of off-beat herky-jerky timing to have any sort of success. You see this from other guys like Brunson, Dricus to an extent, etc. It can work and serve as a means to an end, but IMO a lot of people are hoping that he's secretly some boxing/Muay Thai prodigy when there's really no substantive reason to believe that's the case. In fact, I'd argue that the writing on the wall (his DWCS appearance where he ate a couple of clean shots at range, getting cracked by Shamil in the opening exchange, etc.) suggests the opposite if anything. I feel like Curtis would piece him up given the chance to keep it standing... we'll see if he gets that chance.

Considering Rozenstruik was able to stuff Jailton's initial shot and Shamil was able to scramble back to his feet multiple times... I think Curtis has plenty of spots where he can shine through here, but it's an exceedingly dangerous fight for him, too. Because let's be clear, this ain't Old Man Aleksei across the Octagon from him. He needs to fight and train smart. I'll ride with my boy Blaydes as I almost always do, though.

 

[Istryker]

Blaydes is a overrated gatekeeper. Almeida is gonna poo on him.

 

[Goldentrophy]

Breakdown from an old thread where I sorta touched on this in the spoiler tag.

Spoiler

Curtis's low TDD stat is deceptive. I went back and watched all of Blaydes' old fights and the official stats are outright wrong; for instance they didn't credit him with a takedown he stuffed and and awarded one guy with a phantom TD against him that just legitimately never happened during the fight. Furthermore, pretty much every time he did get taken down he immediately scrambled back to his feet. He has like 33 seconds of combined bottom time across his entire UFC career. That is fourth lowest total bottom time and third lowest bottom time percentage on the Heavyweight roster. The only fight where anyone has had any real success grappling offensively against Blaydes was the Cody East bout and Curtis ultimately won the wrestling exchanges down the stretch; the fight ended with East desperately shooting on Blaydes, getting stuffed, and Curtis finishing him with hellbows to the dome from the sprawl. East didn't have a great UFC stint, but he was a New Mexico state wrestling champ and Jackson-Wink product.

A green Curtis showed zero fear of Oleinik's guard -- and that was a much less shopworn version of the Boa Constrictor who was still managing to pick up regular wins inside the promotion. Curtis took him down multiple times and effortlessly stuffed Aleksei's own takedown & submission attempts. He shucked off a triangle, a headlock/guillotine, and an armbar. At one point he thwarted Oleinik's sub (think it was the armbar, but may have been a triangle) and then sliced through his guard into side control to begin landing GnP. Curtis also defended a guillotine against Overeem -- the same guy who has like eight wins via guillotine across his career and subbed all of his opponents with that same choke to win the ADCC European Trials back in the day. Volkov attempted a kimura and guillotine against Blaydes in their fight as well IIRC.

Is Almeida more dangerous than any of these guys on the mat? Absolutely. But I still sort of like Curtis here. He hasn't given me any significant reason to doubt his defensive grappling though I do fear his overall grappling skill set has atrophied over the years due to his training methodology and EFT's influence. This, along with his consistent lapses in fight IQ, have me very concerned.

That being said, every time Blaydes gets booked against a guy with a dangerous ground game he does the same thing: he goes down to Austin, TX to put in work at B Team Jiu-Jitsu with Nicky Rod. Nicky Rod is legitimately one of the best no-gi submission grapplers on the planet right now and is also an ideal training partner to simulate Jailton's style: similar physical build, absolute freak athlete, stud collegiate wrestler with good lower-body entries, and excellent back-takes.

Despite being a big fan of Jailton and having immensely enjoyed witnessing his ascension, I don't like what I've seen from him if he can't force the fight to the mat and keep it there. His striking is crude; I call it "car crash stand-up". He relies on his raw athleticism, the threat of the takedown, and loading up on everything with a bit of off-beat herky-jerky timing to have any sort of success. You see this from other guys like Brunson, Dricus to an extent, etc. It can work and serve as a means to an end, but IMO a lot of people are hoping that he's secretly some boxing/Muay Thai prodigy when there's really no substantive reason to believe that's the case. In fact, I'd argue that the writing on the wall (his DWCS appearance where he ate a couple of clean shots at range, getting cracked by Shamil in the opening exchange, etc.) suggests the opposite if anything. I feel like Curtis would piece him up given the chance to keep it standing... we'll see if he gets that chance.

Considering Rozenstruik was able to stuff Jailton's initial shot and Shamil was able to scramble back to his feet multiple times... I think Curtis has plenty of spots where he can shine through here, but it's an exceedingly dangerous fight for him, too. Because let's be clear, this ain't Old Man Aleksei across the Octagon from him. He needs to fight and train smart. I'll ride with my boy Blaydes as I almost always do, though.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown Sherbro.Do you have any concerns about Curtis's durability these days? can Almeida get his 1st UFC striking finish vs Blaydes? I hope his durability isn't shot.

 

[Jose Beehive]

Breakdown from an old thread where I sorta touched on this in the spoiler tag.

Spoiler

Curtis's low TDD stat is deceptive. I went back and watched all of Blaydes' old fights and the official stats are outright wrong; for instance they didn't credit him with a takedown he stuffed and and awarded one guy with a phantom TD against him that just legitimately never happened during the fight. Furthermore, pretty much every time he did get taken down he immediately scrambled back to his feet. He has like 33 seconds of combined bottom time across his entire UFC career. That is fourth lowest total bottom time and third lowest bottom time percentage on the Heavyweight roster. The only fight where anyone has had any real success grappling offensively against Blaydes was the Cody East bout and Curtis ultimately won the wrestling exchanges down the stretch; the fight ended with East desperately shooting on Blaydes, getting stuffed, and Curtis finishing him with hellbows to the dome from the sprawl. East didn't have a great UFC stint, but he was a New Mexico state wrestling champ and Jackson-Wink product.

A green Curtis showed zero fear of Oleinik's guard -- and that was a much less shopworn version of the Boa Constrictor who was still managing to pick up regular wins inside the promotion. Curtis took him down multiple times and effortlessly stuffed Aleksei's own takedown & submission attempts. He shucked off a triangle, a headlock/guillotine, and an armbar. At one point he thwarted Oleinik's sub (think it was the armbar, but may have been a triangle) and then sliced through his guard into side control to begin landing GnP. Curtis also defended a guillotine against Overeem -- the same guy who has like eight wins via guillotine across his career and subbed all of his opponents with that same choke to win the ADCC European Trials back in the day. Volkov attempted a kimura and guillotine against Blaydes in their fight as well IIRC.

Is Almeida more dangerous than any of these guys on the mat? Absolutely. But I still sort of like Curtis here. He hasn't given me any significant reason to doubt his defensive grappling though I do fear his overall grappling skill set has atrophied over the years due to his training methodology and EFT's influence. This, along with his consistent lapses in fight IQ, have me very concerned.

That being said, every time Blaydes gets booked against a guy with a dangerous ground game he does the same thing: he goes down to Austin, TX to put in work at B Team Jiu-Jitsu with Nicky Rod. Nicky Rod is legitimately one of the best no-gi submission grapplers on the planet right now and is also an ideal training partner to simulate Jailton's style: similar physical build, absolute freak athlete, stud collegiate wrestler with good lower-body entries, and excellent back-takes.

Despite being a big fan of Jailton and having immensely enjoyed witnessing his ascension, I don't like what I've seen from him if he can't force the fight to the mat and keep it there. His striking is crude; I call it "car crash stand-up". He relies on his raw athleticism, the threat of the takedown, and loading up on everything with a bit of off-beat herky-jerky timing to have any sort of success. You see this from other guys like Brunson, Dricus to an extent, etc. It can work and serve as a means to an end, but IMO a lot of people are hoping that he's secretly some boxing/Muay Thai prodigy when there's really no substantive reason to believe that's the case. In fact, I'd argue that the writing on the wall (his DWCS appearance where he ate a couple of clean shots at range, getting cracked by Shamil in the opening exchange, etc.) suggests the opposite if anything. I feel like Curtis would piece him up given the chance to keep it standing... we'll see if he gets that chance.

Considering Rozenstruik was able to stuff Jailton's initial shot and Shamil was able to scramble back to his feet multiple times... I think Curtis has plenty of spots where he can shine through here, but it's an exceedingly dangerous fight for him, too. Because let's be clear, this ain't Old Man Aleksei across the Octagon from him. He needs to fight and train smart. I'll ride with my boy Blaydes as I almost always do, though.

Exactly what I was looking for, cheers Safton

 

[DevilsPt2]

Your entire argument is that the UFC don't want Blaydes to be champ because Francis and Jones and tough fights, or something.

Sorry, but you're a 'tard. No offence.

How could I not be offended by the disparaging words of such a genius?

Come on man, you know you are powerful lol.

I'm going to go try to do something productive so that I can get over this.

 

[Pechan]

this is the fight that was supposed to happen. but after seeing how Almeida performed against Lewis, i think Blaydes overwhelms him for a TKO or a UD.

Lol why? He dominated the dude that sent Blaydes to the shadow realm.

 

[Safton]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown Sherbro.Do you have any concerns about Curtis's durability these days? can Almeida get his 1st UFC striking finish vs Blaydes? I hope his durability isn't shot.

A little bit. I mean Dariush is my boy and I've always known his durability was questionable at best, but against Tsarukyan it became abundantly clear that his chin is now a downright liability. Lots of fighters get to that point sooner or later and it's hard to predict before it happens; a lot of times there are false alarms beforehand. Sometimes it sneaks up on us as fans and suddenly they hit a brick wall and get felled by the first stiff breeze that comes their way.

That being said, the reason I'm not immensely concerned enough about Blaydes's chin to the point that I want to fade him on that front is because I think he actually has decent mitigating circumstances for his defeats. Yeah, his record  looks bad from a durability standpoint when you see his losses are all via KO/TKO. But:

-- The first Ngannou bout was a competitive fight that ended via doctor's stoppage because Curtis's eye got swollen shut. He was livid and wanted to continue fighting.

-- The Ngannou rematch was a "real" TKO where Curtis got dropped twice and the ref stepped in, but even then Blaydes never got put to sleep and disagreed with the stoppage saying that he was aware the whole time. You can actually see him trying to wrestle through adversity as Ngannou absolutely nails him with multiple flush bombs that had sent other guys to the shadow realm before and after.

-- The Lewis fight was... well, we know what it was. When you duck directly into an uppercut from the knockout king, that's gonna happen.

-- The Pavlovich finish was Curtis trading in the center against Sergei and losing the battle of attrition badly until he went to his knees at which point the ref stepped in. He never got slept or anything, despite getting badly hurt.


Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to cope for Curtis in his losses here. I am also well aware that this amount of concussive damage he has sustained can have an impact on his longevity in the sport. However, what I am saying is that -- considering he is getting stopped by some of the most prolific knockout artists the sport has ever seen -- these losses could be way worse. He has not yet shown me the level of sus chinniness that would make me fear for for his life against an unproven striker and bulked 205er in Almeida. Even looking at Almeida's regional record doesn't show a bunch of clean standing KOs or anything that I'm aware of. Again, he's a big, fast, explosive guy who can certainly hurt Blaydes if he catches him -- but I think the reverse is just as true and I have seen way more tape of Curtis showing off his striking against higher-level competition rather than simply using it as a means to an end.

 

[Blastbeat]

Lol why? He dominated the dude that sent Blaydes to the shadow realm.

MMA math doesnt always work. Lewis timed a great shot to put Blaydes out but Blaydes was winning up until that point. Lewis also looked calm as a cucumber vs Almeida, the whole time. Almeida had little to no urgency.
Blaydes has excellent wrestling and is much better on the feet. Almeida wont be able to lay and pray vs Blaydes like he did to Lewis.

 

[pankrat]

Almeida should be fighting Gane but UFC won't allow it.

Gane.

I guess you misstyped before

 

[Striker Fox]

Terrible matchmaking.

The UFC trying to protect French meal ticket Gane from dominant grapplers at all cost.

tbf Gane openly refuses to fight guys who can wrestle like Blaydes and Jailton, and only fought Jones because it was for a title. Probably thought he had a chance too since Jones had no success wrestling against one leg Santos and Reyes 3 years prior.

 

[fortheo]

Terrible matchmaking.

The UFC trying to protect French meal ticket Gane from dominant grapplers at all cost.

UFC loves making grapplers kill eachother off while they build up more popular strikers on the side. This is nothing new, unfortunately.

 

[Hdfi]

UFC is protecting Gane...

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Finally the Almeida hype train gets derailed.

UFC is protecting Gane...

If Almeida actually fought against Lewis, he would be fighting Gane instead 100%, but he put on a dogshit performance and gets stuck with probably his worst stylistic matchup in the division outside of Jones and Aspinall.