Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Yeah, it's a pass. 6/1 isn't quite good enough, although who the hell knows where the late money from computer wagers and other people go.

 

[Sharkey]

The #11 finished 2nd by a neck back of the winner. Didn't play it, but the place payout should be quite good considering it was a 14 horse field and a 16/1 shot won.

 

[t6p]

Not seeing a play there either, T. I have them ranked; #3, #12, #1, #11 and #13 in that order, and all within 25 points of each other. The board is saying much the same thing with them being 5 of the 6 top choices.

The #11 has been drifting up some, though. Now sitting at 6/1 with 3 mins to post. But I need the 8/1 fair odds I have for it in order to play or else I have to pass unfortunately.

Ah, gotcha. I love my exotics as you know and apparently I have a one track mind haha.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, gotcha. I love my exotics as you know and apparently I have a one track mind haha.

Well, if you want to try something in the 7th race at Woodbine, this is what I have for the top 5. These are the ones that scored above field average on the numbers in a field of 9;

7- 445.2
4- 441.6
6- 436.0
2- 423.7 *I'll Take the Cake 12/1 (11.4% = 8/1 fair odds)(NPT)*
1- 418.9 *Snippy 15/1 (9.1% = 10/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2, LET)*

 

[t6p]

Well, if you want to try something in the 7th race at Woodbine, this is what I have for the top 5. These are the ones that scored above field average on the numbers in a field of 9;

7- 445.2
4- 441.6
6- 436.0
2- 423.7 *I'll Take the Cake 12/1 (11.4% = 8/1 fair odds)(NPT)*
1- 418.9 *Snippy 15/1 (9.1% = 10/1 fair odds)(NPT, E2, LET)*

Unfortunately I don’t have the time to focus on the races today Shark. I’m just reading the forum on my phone hoping to live vicariously though you, haha. But thanks for sharing anyway and good luck with any plays that you do make today.

 

[Sharkey]

Unfortunately I don’t have the time to focus on the races today Shark. I’m just reading the forum on my phone hoping to live vicariously though you, haha. But thanks for sharing anyway and good luck with any plays that you do make today.

So you're saying it wasn't you who killed my price in that last one, T? Haha.

Cheers.

 

[Sharkey]

I have no idea what I'm going to do in race 7 with two longshot options. I'd rather not play both of them across the board, so in a way I kinda hope one of them gets overbet somewhat.

 

[Sharkey]

Maybe I'll go across the board with the #2, and then go with a #1, #2, #6 exacta box. Based on will pays the #4 and #7 will be the two clear favourites, and I don't have them that far ahead of the others.

 

[Sharkey]

Can't believe the #2 I'll Take the Cake is 15/1. She's got the positive pace pattern with the NPT last time out. She's coming off a good race, and her good races come in bunches. Bullet workout last week. Best record at this class level being 0-2-2 in 6 starts. Best record at this distance being 1-1-1 in 4 starts and with the 3rd highest figure at it with the other two having regressive signs. Some other goodies as well. She also looks energetic and alert out there right now as well, which is an additional plus that says she's ready to run.

 

[Sharkey]

Maybe I'll go across the board with the #2, and then go with a #1, #2, #6 exacta box. Based on will pays the #4 and #7 will be the two clear favourites, and I don't have them that far ahead of the others.

Yeah, these are my plays. The #2 across and the exacta box.

 

[Sharkey]

Shitty. The #2, who was 20/1, got stuck behind another horse early and didn't seem too happy about it. Got steered out to a stalking position outside the leader, but was also stuck in a bad position between horses for most of the race after that. Still looked the she had a shot until the last furlong, but faded back to 5th at the line about 3 lengths behind the winner. Shit like that is why I prefer outside speed horses. The only thing they have to worry about for the most part is getting put 3 or 4 wide on the turn. But they almost never get stuck with no where to run, nor do they hardly even get put in the middle. Inside posts can have so much more go wrong.

The #6 ended up winning.

 

[Sharkey]

On a positive note I must be feeling good again if I'm sitting here bitching about trips.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 10 at Woodbine - #7 Thundering Sky 12/1 (10.7% = 9/1 fair odds)(HLS, E2)
Race 10 at Woodbine - #9 Code Warrior 6/1 (22.6% = 7/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)

Those who scored above field average;

9- 476.8 *Code Warrior 6/1 (22.6% = 7/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)*
3- 470.0
8- 467.7
7- 464.0 *Thundering Sky 12/1 (10.7% = 9/1 fair odds)(HLS, E2)*
10- 460.6
1- 453.7

Looks like I'm going to get my price on both of these horses, so I'm thinking the #6 to win/place for $4/$6, and then across the board with the #7 for $2/$4/$4. I'm also thinking about some $1 trifectas as well with the #6 over #7 over #3, #8, #10, #1 and then reverse second & third with the #6 over #3, #8, #10, #1 over #7. Then a straight $2 exacta as well with the #9 over #7.

 

[Sharkey]

The #7 is starting to get bet now with a few minutes to post. Is 6/1 now after just being 9/1 a bit ago. I won't play it across at those odds. The #9 is more than playable at 8/1, though.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, just the W/P on #9 and the exotics. $20 risked in total.

 

[Sharkey]

I fucking love this pace pattern stuff!

Yep, that's me shaking once again.

 

[Sharkey]

The #9 won easily at almost 8/1 and the #7 finished 2nd. Produced a fantastic 90/1 exacta. I hit that motherfucker cold.

 

[Sharkey]

$229 in profit for me. I needed that. I really did.

 

[Sharkey]

Those who scored above field average;

9- 476.8 *Code Warrior 6/1 (22.6% = 7/2 fair odds)(HLS, OS)*
3- 470.0
8- 467.7
7- 464.0 *Thundering Sky 12/1 (10.7% = 9/1 fair odds)(HLS, E2)*
10- 460.6
1- 453.7

Looks like I'm going to get my price on both of these horses, so I'm thinking the #6 to win/place for $4/$6, and then across the board with the #7 for $2/$4/$4. I'm also thinking about some $1 trifectas as well with the #6 over #7 over #3, #8, #10, #1 and then reverse second & third with the #6 over #3, #8, #10, #1 over #7. Then a straight $2 exacta as well with the #9 over #7.

I must've been standing on my head when I typed the #6 over in trifectas. Obviously it was the #9 I was meaning.

 

[t6p]

The #9 won easily at almost 8/1 and the #7 finished 2nd. Produced a fantastic 90/1 exacta. I hit that motherfucker cold.

Hell yea! Nice hit Shark.