Prime Fedor has clear weaknesses that can exploited. They include but are not limited to his boxing, susceptibility to cuts (Jones is the worst opponent in that regard), TDD against leg takedowns, bottom game. Most realistic way for Fedor to win is with a lucky punch, but a better boxer with longer reach like Gustaffson was completely stifled on the feet. Fedor's wild haymakers aren't going to do better, especially after Jones wears down his legs.
Jones could take down an Olympic wrestler like Cormier several times in a fight. Fedor is going to be taken down even worse. When he does, he's going to eat elbows and he's going to bleed profusely.
Jones getting nearly armbarred against Vitor is a silly argument here. First, it was a one time thing in his entire career and unlike Fedor, he didn't get finished by an armbar. Vitor was also roided to the gills at the time, something Fedor doesnt have. Fedor is more likely to be armbarred by Jones considering Jones will be in a better position to land an armbar with his superior wrestling.
Fedor's best wins were against one dimensional fighters like Cro Cop, Big Nog, Arlovski, Sylvia. Fedor has never beaten anyone of Jones' calibur, but Jones has beaten and never lost against fighters of Fedor's calibur.
