The odds are HORRIBLY off in the Chris Gutiérrez vs Cody Durden fight (UFC Fight Night)

[SolarSeiko]

Do you have the last 3 by any chance?

have you tried mma-core..

 

[Broe.]

Does it really matter who you train with?

that’s why we watch tape. And have you watched his last three fights? Because from what I’ve heard, they’re out there but hard to find.

Is there any evidence he can deal with calf kicks? Because Gutiérrez is probably going to use them heavily.

and you’re capping this as a pickem fight?

You can find his last fight vs sweeney on youtube. Just google his name and scroll down a bit. The title is something like Durden 2019.

 

[Sono07]

You can find his last fight vs sweeney on youtube. Just google his name and scroll down a bit. The title is something like Durden 2019.

Are you sure that wasn't his fight with Sewell? The Sweeney fight was only like two weeks ago on the July 18th.

 

[ill800]

Are you sure that wasn't his fight with Sewell? The Sweeney fight was only like two weeks ago on the July 18th.

His nfc fights are behind a paywall on flocombat.

Edit: actually found the Sweeney fight, “Durden July 2020”

not much of a fight.

he’s got an awfully wide stance. He might want to switch that up for this fight but that takes away from his takedown explosiveness.

Durden looks good against low level competition, I’ll give him that. Two years ago he lost to a 12-13 journeyman

 

[Martialbeef]

Maurice Green trains with Jon Jones

 

[joenewbie]

Still a pick em fight, but the odds are way off.

Props to you for seeing that the line was so far off on this (mostly) unknown fighter.

 

[beroisimo**]

Props to you for seeing that the line was so far off on this (mostly) unknown fighter.

Thanks , it was clear as daylight to me having researched into Cody, so I felt the need to make a thread about it. He was actually one trip away from a takedown in the third round which would have won him the fight too.

 

[StewDogg11]

Maybe, but you still wouldn’t have won any money.

 

[ill800]

Thanks , it was clear as daylight to me having researched into Cody, so I felt the need to make a thread about it. He was actually one trip away from a takedown in the third round which would have won him the fight too.

His gas tank just wasn’t there. Clear ptv though. After rd 1 I thought he was going to win for sure

 

[beroisimo**]

Maybe, but you still wouldn’t have won any money.

Not on that parlay, but I just won on Bobby Green and Brunson so I'm good.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Maybe, but you still wouldn’t have won any money.

It's still worth giving props for pointing out an off line, even if it didn't hit

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

As someone who had never seen Cody Durden before, I think he performed better than +250, but not drastically so.

I'm both astounded and disappointed that all 3 judges scored it a draw; to me, either 29-28, 28-27, or 29-27 were all perfectly valid scores for Gutierrez. The primary judging criteria should always be damage. Not positional control or dominance, but damage.

In terms of damage, round 1 was a mere 10-9 in favor of Durden. HOWEVER, if you do score it 10-8 for him, then round 3 should easily be 10-8 Gutierrez given that he knocked Durden down and had him very, very badly hurt, with the ref leaning in to take a closer look.

With that in mind, Durden had a significant grappling advantage, yes, but a huge striking AND cardio disadvantage, the latter due to taking the fight on a week's notice, which is absolutely baked into the odds.

So Durden was value, performing more like, say, a +175, but it took a sweat for him not to get finished in round 3 followed by a lucky break with the judges to merely get one's money back.

Having seen him fight, I agree with part of the analysis in the OP, but strongly disagree with other points in it. No, training with the Lima brothers did not magically make Durden immune to leg kicks by osmosis, and yes, Gutierrez had him badly beaten in the striking, including with his kicks. And the 7 days' notice was absolutely a much bigger disadvantage for Durden.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

As someone who had never seen Cody Durden before, I think he performed better than +250, but not drastically so.

I'm both astounded and disappointed that all 3 judges scored it a draw; to me, either 29-28, 28-27, or 29-27 were all perfectly valid scores for Gutierrez. The primary judging criteria should always be damage. Not positional control or dominance, but damage.

In terms of damage, round 1 was a mere 10-9 in favor of Durden. HOWEVER, if you do score it 10-8 for him, then round 3 should easily be 10-8 Gutierrez given that he knocked Durden down and had him very, very badly hurt, with the ref leaning in to take a closer look.

With that in mind, Durden had a significant grappling advantage, yes, but a huge striking AND cardio disadvantage, the latter due to taking the fight on a week's notice, which is absolutely baked into the odds.

So Durden was value, performing more like, say, a +175, but it took a sweat for him not to get finished in round 3 followed by a lucky break with the judges to merely get one's money back.

Having seen him fight, I agree with part of the analysis in the OP, but strongly disagree with other points in it. No, training with the Lima brothers did not magically make Durden immune to leg kicks by osmosis, and yes, Gutierrez had him badly beaten in the striking, including with his kicks. And the 7 days' notice was absolutely a much bigger disadvantage for Durden.

Tbf he may not have been immune to calf kicks, but he dealt with them far better than most fighters, at least initially (looking at you Rude Boy Brown)

 

[Black Paladin]

Maybe, but you still wouldn’t have won any money.

With that type of thinking, no one would.

You get in the habit of making good decisions. The decision to bet Durden was the correct call. If it doesn't work out 3 times out of 10, then those are the breaks. But the decision was correct.

IN THE LONG RUN is a real thing.

 

[Oblivian]

As someone who had never seen Cody Durden before, I think he performed better than +250, but not drastically so.

I'm both astounded and disappointed that all 3 judges scored it a draw; to me, either 29-28, 28-27, or 29-27 were all perfectly valid scores for Gutierrez. The primary judging criteria should always be damage. Not positional control or dominance, but damage.

In terms of damage, round 1 was a mere 10-9 in favor of Durden. HOWEVER, if you do score it 10-8 for him, then round 3 should easily be 10-8 Gutierrez given that he knocked Durden down and had him very, very badly hurt, with the ref leaning in to take a closer look.

With that in mind, Durden had a significant grappling advantage, yes, but a huge striking AND cardio disadvantage, the latter due to taking the fight on a week's notice, which is absolutely baked into the odds.

So Durden was value, performing more like, say, a +175, but it took a sweat for him not to get finished in round 3 followed by a lucky break with the judges to merely get one's money back.

Having seen him fight, I agree with part of the analysis in the OP, but strongly disagree with other points in it. No, training with the Lima brothers did not magically make Durden immune to leg kicks by osmosis, and yes, Gutierrez had him badly beaten in the striking, including with his kicks. And the 7 days' notice was absolutely a much bigger disadvantage for Durden.

I'm glad someone else said it in regards to the scoring. I'm not a fan of Rd 1 being a 10-8. He was never really close to a submission and didn't have any big strikes. Yes, he did control the action by having the back throughout, but he really didn't do much with it. Guiterrez actually had a closer sub attempt in the fight with his armbar. Guiterrez looked just as in control of the fight in Rd 2 and Rd 3, and he actually did damage.