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UFC 196 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 209NickDiaz, Mar 5, 2016.

  1. null Gold Belt

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    My last thought on this a couple of days later here: Was anyone else impressed by how respectful Nate Diaz was to Conor after the fight in the Octagon and at the press conference? Conor talked mad shit to him and then got choked out. Nate could have had a lot to say like, "Another UFC hype train derailed", or "Go back to the midget division, homie", or maybe even "Hey Conor, I'm giving jujitsu lessons this weekend to the kids, why don't you come by and learn something."
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Wasn't surprised. Nate's always been more classy, win or lose, than Nick. Plus, Conor came after Diaz on the feet. Its a strategy that will get anyone beat against them, but at least you earn their respect
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Until Conor had his own "Oh, you're a wrestler now?" moment at the end. Plus that's really the only way Conor can fight elite grapplers. I don't think there was a single person who knows anything about the two guys that didn't think that fight was a wrap the millisecond that Conor shot for that takedown.

    I rewatched the fight earlier tonight and it was really interesting to me was that Conor after the fight in his analysis said (twice) "He was more efficient than me and it was the difference". To be fair it was literally RIGHT after the fight and of course he has a mic stuck in his face and has to say something. I just wonder if he were to look back now at the fight if he really believes that or not. Because the reality is that Conor was actually very efficient. He threw a lot of power shots (as he always does) and landed a lot. The problem wasn't efficiency imo, it was that his power simply doesn't translate against bigger fighters that can take some punishment.

    In hindsight had I been watching less as a fan and more as a bettor, I'd have crushed that Diaz line after rd 1 at +550 or whatever it was. Even after the first 2-3 minutes (after watching the fight again) it's pretty apparent Conor didn't like (or more accurately, didn't understand) what was happening. When he hits guys, it's game over. And when it wasn't, he was rattled. But what else was he going to do? He had to keep throwing power shots and hope they made a dent. They just didn't.

    I have little doubt Conor has the skills to be a top LW or possibly even have success at WW but he'd need to revamp his whole style and become a point fighter. And does anyone really want to see that? Way better he just stays at FW and keeps that division interesting.
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Ha, yeah at my friends as soon as Conor shot that takedown I screamed its over

    I think Conor was talking about energy levels. I know he said that statement a few more times in press conference, interviews, etc. and said "he was more efficient with his energy levels". And that was def a problem. He went hard as fuck. I wouldn't be surprised if another part of gassing is the shock of realizing he wasn't even fazing Nate with his best shots.

    Ah, I see in this next paragraph you touch on the same point of the shock of Nate being unfazed. Fucking Fight Pass stream man, I can never get it to stop lagging. That was the ONE fight I didn't check livebet with 30 secs left in a round, and of course I miss Nate +600 on 5d when I tried freerolling. I don't regret dropping money on Conor -280, but I def would've hammered that too. Was telling my friend this is NOT how you fight a Diaz brother lol and even full camp Nate is usually a slow starter.

    I don't think he has to be a point fighter. I really think the particular style of Diaz was just kryptonite, especially to how he decided to fight. I know I said this in my thoughts before the fight, Conor relies sooo much on playing with range and dictating it, but Nate is one of the best at that as well and hes naturally the lengthier fighter. Plus the retarded gangsta toughness on top of that, once Conor went "all in" like he did with his power it was a matter of time before Nate got in rhythm. Conor can have a good read on those pull counters all he wants, but like Mystic Nate said, who does he train with? No body with the frame and boxing of Diaz.

    The only thing that really sucks to come of this is now Conor is forced back down to FW for the biggest fights possible right now, and I hate seeing how deathly this man looks. Its obviously terrible for his health. Think he belongs at 155.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    It's possible Conor's power translates okay to LW against most guys. You are right, Nate (even at 155) has a ridiculous chin. It's probably not fair to sit here and say Conor won't get most LW's out of there landing those type shots. I think a few dominating wins at FW and he could probably lobby for a move back up to LW. You're right in that he looks awful at weigh ins for 145.

    To beat someone like Nate though I do think he'd need to completely alter his strategy and not look to hurt Nate. Get in and land quickly and get out. Use the speed advantage and don't rely on controlling range. And the WW discussion I think is now permanently over. The top guys in that division can take shots the same way Nate can but when they fire back it's with a hell of a lot bigger caliber. It was a fun discussion for a bit, but back to reality.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah, respect to Conor for being the rare guy to come after a Diaz bros with the intent to kill, but that shit will never go well for anyone. His strategy would def have to be altered. After like 2 mins into the fight I don't think he threw anymore kicks to the lead leg, which is a HORRIBLE mistake.

    Speaking of WW, whats crazy about MMA, is if Nate fought Lawler now, i'd be all over Nate :D
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Me too honestly. Although I'll say Robbie has that power that's just stupid at 170. Even Nate would have to be real careful. But yeah Nate is the kind of guy who could possibly "out-Lawler" Robbie Lawler LOL. Just win a war of attrition. I thought Condit did it, judges barely disagreed.
     
  8. weedreference Green Belt

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    Both Nate and Conor are bad matchups for Lawler, since his number one skill is TDD, and that would be of little use against them. That said, he's a damn good striker as well, but since Nate and Conor would likely be +200 against him I would be all over them.
     
  9. Foghorn Leghorn Purple Belt

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    If by top LW you simply mean top 15 range, then yeah I'm in agreement. If you mean he'd be the champion, or damn near, I'm not so sure.

    Quick look at the UFC LW Top 15 tells me that there are some guys he'd beat (I'd be down with a Poirer rematch at 155, holy shit) but I think he'd really struggle once he moved toward the top 10, although LW isn't quite as bad for him as it once would have been (back with all the strong wrestlers, the Maynard/Edgar era).

    I don't think he has a prayer at WW though, just too many big dudes who can take his punches, land their own, and grapple him to death.

    I checked out on the betting for this one once it became Diaz, just wanted to soak it all in as a fan. I think RDA would have absolutely trucked him though. Chucking bombs or not, Conor was still fading quickly at the end of the first round and that is very concerning. Personally, I am very interested in how he fares against Edgar, as well as a rematch with Aldo. I would definitely enjoy a rematch between Aldo and McGregor, though I'm of the belief that Edgar deserves first. Admittedly, I will accept that the "bigger fight" for the UFC is likely the rematch, and the Edgar fight is much more dangerous for Conor, so I suspect that's the way it'll be going.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2016
  10. jwms Blue Belt

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    I think Conor needed to use kicks. Work the body, work the lead leg.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Yea. Conor headhunted a notoriously hard headed opponent.

    So many guys have laid out the blueprint ..
     
  12. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I think he could easily be a top 10 LW. But overall yeah I agree that a huge part of his game is that when he lands, guys wilt. His style of striking cannot hold up against bigger fighters that eat his punches without issue. Because as accurate as he is offensively, he gets hit too. And against bigger fighters he's going to lose with that style sometimes.
     
  13. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I said this prior to the Johnson fight and prior to the McGregor fight - everyone who beats Nate also has to have the ability to rely on their grappling too. They are basically extremely well rounded fighters with a strong grappling base. Johnson and Conor did not have the luxury to rely on their grappling without a major threat of being submitted. They were going into a fight with a major disadvantage on the ground and basically no plan B. We saw Conor have the luxury of using plan B against Holloway, and he couldn't here.

    I see a lot of people talking about Conor needing to use leg kicks or needing to stick and move a lot more. It reminds me of people talking about Silva playing around too much against Weidman (and now Bisping). That's just who Conor is. He got to the top with the KOs and the pressure. Sure, he's shown some precision striking with counters, but that's against guys lunging at him and they are still headshots. It's almost like saying "Conor would have done better if he didn't fight like Conor". Nate's just a tough matchup for him, and mark my words, there are a lot more of them. Durable guys who are well rounded with grappling are going to give him a very hard time. This would mainly be top guys, but a lot of people out there at LW (and some at FW) can beat Conor.
     
  14. rille31 Brown Belt

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    I have a nice bet on nate to be the lw champion during 2016 @ +6600

    Any chance he will get the shot?
     
  15. jwms Blue Belt

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    You don't think leg kicks and kicks to the body are part of Conor's game? Isn't that a fundamental part of his distance game?
     
  16. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Sick! Yeah there's absolutely a chance that he gets the rematch with RDA.
     
  17. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    He throws side kicks to the legs but not muay thai style legkicks which has been Nates kryptonite.
     
  18. jwms Blue Belt

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    Yeah, but he uses kicks to keep distance, put his opponent to the cage, soften the body, also to help pace himself. I expected more of that heading into the fight.
     
  19. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    He does, but it's way easier to do those things with a big reach advantage. I kinda feel he felt pressure to finish Nate in the first round since he repeatedly had said he would. He probably wanted to keep that whole thing going where he predicts which round he wins in.
     
  20. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    He doesn't have the leg kick, stay on the outside, footwork, more kicks, etc. type of strategy. Sure, he uses kicks, but it's normally to gauge distance or combating someone coming at him. I remember people thinking he would come out and just use a bunch of kicks while moving against Diaz. I've never seen him fight like that, nor do I think he'd be effective at it.
     

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