I'm already big on Weidman here and hopefully this isn't just the Long Island fanboy in me. We've never seen Chris outstruck overall on his feet really with fights against Silva 2x, Rockhold, Machida, Uriah Hall, Munoz, Belfort (MOST of the punches were blocked I thought), etc. so why am I to believe that Mousasi should be much different? I think Chris can possibly hold his own on the feet with the pressure but he has a clear path to victory with his wrestling and ground and pound.
Mousasi hasn't fought too many wrestlers recently either. He beat Munoz 3 years ago when Munoz was done and on his way out. Beat Latifi 4 years ago but Latifi is 5'8" and I don't think either of these guys are on Weidmans level when it comes to wrestling let alone their overall mma game.
I also think that the line reflects the "what have you done lately' mentality. Chris has been knocked out his last 2 fights and Gegard has 3 knockouts against some pretty big names. What would the line have been 2 years ago? I think the fight being in New York helps too. Gegard has to travel and adjust to the time difference since it will be about 4-5am his time and Chris has a 45 minute flight or about a 5 hour drive.
I'll pay to see him lose as I think Chris has more ways to win. I also don't think he's on the decline but just ran into 2 monsters that are part of the top 4 or 5 in the world.
Weidman (+110) $72.73 to win $80
Weidman ITD (+365) $10.96 to win $40