This is almost the complete breakdown of Edgar and Rodriguez…
145lbs- FRANKIE EDGAR (21-5-1) vs. YAIR RODRIGUEZ (10-1)
Edgar is tough as three decade old shoe leather and while he is hittable, he has never been finished in his distinguished career. His ability to remain coherent even under duress is due in large because of his conditioning. As such he regains his faculties quicker than most. The 35-year-old former champion from Toms River New Jersey has excellent boxing where he will dart in and out of the pocket like a phantom, landing quick clean punches and getting out before he can be touched. Additionally, Edgar likes to throw inside inside and outside leg kicks to keep his opponent off balance.
From the outset he will maintain a super high volume pace throughout the fight. His best asset however is his chain wrestling. Be it an ankle pic, a single leg, blast double, foot sweep, or take down from a body lock, Edgar has always been able to find a way to bring his man to the canvas. This is all the more impressive given that he is usually out sized in each contest, and often looks like he should be competing down a division.
Basically this fight is old guard versus new guard and something has to give. Ultimately I believe it is going to come down to whether or not Frankie is going to be able to secure takedowns. Frankie has never lost a fight were he has hit three takedowns or more. If Rodriguez I will set up shop on the outside he has a very good chance of picking the former champion apart or possibly even finding the knockout blow.
That said, using a high-volume kicking game sets you up for potential takedowns. Edgar is going to be salivating at the first time Rodriguez goes to lift one of his legs off the mat for a kick so he can take advantage of a one legged man. Once Rodriguez goes for the kick expect Edgar to hit that reactive takedown and try to implement some ground and pound and take some steam out of the explosive kid.
The quick twitch muscles of Rodriguez take a lot of oxygen and if Edgar is able to crowd him he is going to be able take away the vaunted kicking assault. You need space to set your feet to kick and Edgar's style is built primarily around negating this type of attack.
Lastly, I know that he is improved drastically, but if you look at the fight Rodriguez had against Charles Rosa, you notice that he slowed down in the third round. In fact, a super fatigued Rosa was STILL able to ground him and convincingly do so in the final frame. Largely because Rodriguez had wore himself out with his dynamic style. I expect Edgar to have the similar success of Rosa but only far earlier and much more often.
I believe that Frankie has a few more high level fights left in him and that he is able to pressure Rodriguez and pick up a clean decision victory.