Shes a big favorite cause minus that weak chin having its moments she was on a great string of title defenses, and Rose has had her losses in close fights with KK and Tecia, much different fighters than what JJ brings to the table. But what SBJJ is leaving out, sure there were those very confident, but there was also people who weren't blinded (gamblers and media alike, considering i'm pretty sure Heavy Hands talked about this) and were well aware this was a much different fight than what both are used to whether JJ wins or not. The odds didn't tell that story, but ultimately the fight did, and Rose looked way too quick and JJ has a horrid chin.
I'd disagree with your assessment, especially when its an easy to debate hypothetical considering Rose dodged a lot of shots early which should've acted as JJ's cue that she can't be cocky. But a smart gambler should realize its fair enough to believe that, but its more belief than anything that can be stated as fact, so still not worth risking on JJ at the better price than first time.
Even without having an idea how the fight will go, which is fair, I think there is a very clear bet for all. And thats Rose NSC. Shame those itd prices corrected themselves or Rose NSC would've opened at + odds, but honestly at anything better than like -250 I think its great. JJ needs to corner you and reign volume for a finish, not gonna happen vs Rose with that footwork. And JJ chin is terrible. I love this line so much.