UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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Wiktoruspro said:
Why is he a lock? Olivier Got grapplING advantage
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I do not think OAM has the grappling advantage over Dunham. Or at least if he does, it's only very slight and probably due to a strength advantage. OAM's bottom game is extremely lacking, and this was exposed against Ferreira.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
@Stunna77 where You at boy?
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Lol dude you never give any analysis yet always expect people to tell you who to bet, but I guess I will oblige for others. I do not rate OAM, as he has always had hype, but showed very litle in actual fights. I will say his striking has definitely improved in his last two fights, but it is still not on Dunham's level. I think the wrestling and grappling are very close, so this fight will probably be contested in large spurts on the feet, where it will be hard for OAM to win a decision given Dunham's huge volume edge. Dunham is so well rounded that he only loses when someone can overwhelm him in one area, usually it has been dangerous strikers.
 
Kattar round 3 +1400 is appealing. Obviously because Kattar stopped Burgos in 3 in his last fight, but also because Renato had that fuck up against Ortega in round 3. I think Kattar is going to box up Moicano and the damage might accumulate a finish in round 3.
 
Stunna77 said:
Lol dude you never give any analysis yet always expect people to tell you who to bet, but I guess I will oblige for others. I do not rate OAM, as he has always had hype, but showed very litle in actual fights. I will say his striking has definitely improved in his last two fights, but it is still not on Dunham's level. I think the wrestling and grappling are very close, so this fight will probably be contested in large spurts on the feet, where it will be hard for OAM to win a decision given Dunham's huge volume edge. Dunham is so well rounded that he only loses when someone can overwhelm him in one area, usually it has been dangerous strikers.
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So why the irony at the begining?
 
Wiktoruspro said:
So why the irony at the begining?
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I mean my post you quoted essentially explains that. It is because all you ever say when you are betting someone is "so and so is a lock" with no actual reasoning.
 
zeckdo said:
Kattar round 3 +1400 is appealing. Obviously because Kattar stopped Burgos in 3 in his last fight, but also because Renato had that fuck up against Ortega in round 3. I think Kattar is going to box up Moicano and the damage might accumulate a finish in round 3.
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I'll never argue with a stab at those type of odds but I actually went the other way and put a little on Moicano round 3 +2200 and sub +826. Before the Burgos fight Kattar's last stoppage win was in 2010, seven consecutive wins by decision, and the majority of those fights were not against UFC level competition. It took a perfect, clean shot to get Burgos out of there and even then Burgos arguably could have continued.

Meanwhile, Moicano has shown an excellent chin. He was able to absorb clean shots from Ortega and Stephens, and look at what those guys have been doing lately. I expect Moicano to go to his leg kicks very often here, something which he had a ton of success with against Stephens and Kattar has had a lot of trouble dealing with even pre-UFC (see the Gabriel Baino fight on YouTube). Moicano is also an excellent grappler/submission threat even though he hasn't shown it much in his last few fights. I think if Kattar's legs are compromised, it will be easier for Moicano to get this to the ground where he should have a significant advantage.
 
In a toss-up, you gotta bet the dog, right?

I know betting draws is stupid, but this could end up a crazy decision, especially if Khabib dominates the first three rounds and Tony comes back in the 4th and 5th with a 10-8.

My favorite fight in a long time
 


can anyone comment on the question asked at 1:30 and the consequent answer? The question is regarding how the 10th planet grappling system would fare against Khabib's style of wrestling
 
iGnP said:


can anyone comment on the question asked at 1:30 and the consequent answer? The question is regarding how the 10th planet grappling system would fare against Khabib's style of wrestling
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As an avid fan of grappling outside of MMA, I'm confused at why the 10th planet system gets brought up as this special thing that might be the checkmate that khabib finally encounters. Khabib isn't going to have trouble with rubber guard or run into a dead orchard armbar/twister or something. His defense and preemptive positioning is too good.

If you look at what finally sunk Lee's ship in his fight with Ferguson, it wasn't a mystical Eddie Bravo technique as much as it was basic jiu jitsu applied with black belt timing. Tony was utilizing a lot of feet on the hips, high guard, holding Lee's head down, and trying to isolate his arms with basic arm traps. The most unique thing he used in that fight was a ton of elbow spam to try and catch Lee defending the elbows in order to trap an arm, which he did and nearly armbarred him in round 3.

If Khabib somehow gets caught in a sub it's going to be something along the lines of a sudden triangle or possibly a darce in the clinch (doubtful). All the 10th planet stuff just seems like fluff and adds to the mystique of this fight rather than being a threatening reality.

Grappling battles at the highest level usually come down to high percentage basic moves executed with perfect timing. I don't see this being any different, and I'm more so expecting fatigue, elbows, blood, and striking to be a deciding factor in the grappling than any special moves.

With that said, this would be a good thread of its own in the grappling technique forum on here
 
Orion said:
As an avid fan of grappling outside of MMA, I'm confused at why the 10th planet system gets brought up as this special thing that might be the checkmate that khabib finally encounters. Khabib isn't going to have trouble with rubber guard or run into a dead orchard armbar/twister or something. His defense and preemptive positioning is too good.

If you look at what finally sunk Lee's ship in his fight with Ferguson, it wasn't a mystical Eddie Bravo technique as much as it was basic jiu jitsu applied with black belt timing. Tony was utilizing a lot of feet on the hips, high guard, holding Lee's head down, and trying to isolate his arms with basic arm traps. The most unique thing he used in that fight was a ton of elbow spam to try and catch Lee defending the elbows in order to trap an arm, which he did and nearly armbarred him in round 3.

If Khabib somehow gets caught in a sub it's going to be something along the lines of a sudden triangle or possibly a darce in the clinch (doubtful). All the 10th planet stuff just seems like fluff and adds to the mystique of this fight rather than being a threatening reality.

Grappling battles at the highest level usually come down to high percentage basic moves executed with perfect timing. I don't see this being any different, and I'm more so expecting fatigue, elbows, blood, and striking to be a deciding factor in the grappling than any special moves.

With that said, this would be a good thread of its own in the grappling technique forum on here
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While I mostly agree with this, weren't people talking about the way Tony finishing that triangle on Lee being somewhat novel in that he didn't follow basic BJJ advice by putting Lee's arm across his body and instead did the opposite in order to tighten it up? Here's a video about it:

In any case, I think at best 10pjj might give him a few more options off his back to land elbows while controlling Khabib's posture, but it'll be just a small consideration instead of some sort of game changer. But all those small things add up and, in a close fight, can make the difference between a few more strikes landed/defended or even between a tap and a close call.
 
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