UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[Dianabol]

@DevilsPt2, @ill800
I get that you are tempted by + money on Jedrzejczyk, but she does not have a clear path to victory here.


He does not even need to be that uberguni to beat him. Stylistically it's really close to a nightmare match-up (for Cowboy). Since Alex was thrown out ATT because he was a dick he has zero progress in the technical department. He have so little of substance in his game - mainly athleticism. He is like Jake Matthews, but somehow worse. At least Jake won't do some stupid shit for the sake of it to tire himself out with them or give the opponent openings.


Think he was massive before USADA. I've seen comparison pictures of him before and now and there is a difference.


No, he would not win. Hooker is like 70%+ TDD and he can defend himself on the ground. It's a long shot to bet Burns v someone that he does not any options but to grapple to win. He does not have the wrestling. Wrestling is king in MMA, don't care what people say.

In this match-up I don't like either of these guys for betting. Burns is all or nothing guy, he never wins decisions. OAM I am dissapointed by him. I remember watched him v Drew Dober and he was so sharp there with his striking, man it was night and day from his fight with Gouti. But I don't know if it was a match-up thing or what, this striking we didn't see it ever again. If we are talking Oliver from the Dober fight, I would say he is a LOCK to win. But is he gonna fight like that? And Firas fighters don't inspire confidence in me. He is a great talker, philosopher, but training and gameplanning I can't say. If you are the right type of fighter, like Bektic, who is all offence and need some restraint to make him more defensively responsible I would say yes, but everybody else - not so good. I can tell you a number of TriStar guys that lost in the last 5 months and the opponent they lost weren't even that good.

IDK how much you know about Burns but his wrestling is probably better than what you think. He's taken every single UFC opponent down at least once expect for Hooker. And he didn't shoot on Hooker until he got rocked and because of that it was a poor desperate attempt. If you watch Burns' other fights you can see that he's got good TD's and he's an explosive athlete.

Burns is among the elite of the elite when it comes to BJJ, if he had got Hooker down there was a good chance he would have submitted him. Hooker has never had elite TDD and he's never been great on the mat but I haven't seen him on the mat since FW days, but look what Knight and Yair did.

I don't really think Burns has shrunk much since USADA either but I noticed he doesn't look as lean. I know his weight cuts are still tough because he talks about it all the time.

I think Burns will be the aggressor vs OAM, Burns will probably take him down at some point but OAM will be hard to get and keep down.

Burns is still a powerful athlete and he's got legit one punch KO power, OAM has a chin but don't be surprised if he gets dropped. I think Burns finds a way to win through his pressure and aggression, I think he has an advantage everywhere.

 

[Dianabol]

Zabit didn't cruise to exactly an easy decision and you are telling me this guy will. OK. Maybe you are right, but Dawodu is not proved v the upper echelon and Kyle is better than the guys he usually beats. I undestand I talked shit about TriStar but we got new opponent Bochniak - TriStar and Arnett trains at SikJitsu. And Arnett is not the athlete Bochniak is.
I did not get to watch tape on this fight yet, but just on paper it's a scrap, not so one sided as you say.

If you watch Dawodu's WSOF fights you can see a lot more of his game, he had a lot of impressive performances in WSOF it would probably build your confidence in him. I'm high on Dawodu, I think he's got great potential.

True Bochniak is a much better athlete than Arnett but almost everyone is. And don't come at me with this Tristar angle, Bochniak has been there for a few weeks, big deal. Bochniak trained his whole career in Boston, he's not a Tristar fighter.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Don't get mad. Just trying to give another angle here.

 

[Jordan3399]

Gugabe, I hope you don't lose a ton of money betting against Ortega in his title fight because you talk very confidently... Clearly you don't like the guy's fighting style. I was with you all the way and lost god knows how much on Moicano to take him to school and I ended up crying like a bitch. No more underestimating that fucker. Rewatch that Edgar fight without bias and come to me again. Thanks.

I'm out for an hour and I'll be back then.

Without bias? Edgar was outstriking him easily no question. The only questionable bit would be how Edgar was putting a lot on his strikes but that doesn't change the fact his volume and technique was way better than Ortega's. It's no different to Mousasi vs Hall one low percentage strike can be a game changer but good luck repeating it.

 

[Jordan3399]

Gugabe will bet against Ortega no matter what. If Ortega went up to 155 and beat Khabib/Ferguston/McGregor with subs, gugabe would still place a big bet on Kevin Lee to beat Ortega.

Sorry gugabe, but you are biased against Ortega and never gave him any credit for wins. I remember you saying with confidence that Moicano and Edgar were more or less LOCKS against Ortega.

Gugabe will continue to lose money betting against Ortega and actually think he is doing the right thing. You need to take a closer look at Ortega. He has the most feared ground game in the UFC right now. FIghters are terrified to get into a clinch with him. Look at Edgar. Even when he was hurt he wouldn't go near Ortega and tried to keep it at range.

Ortega is sloppy offentively because he's trying to GOAD his opponent into getting into a clinch or going to the ground. He wants his opponent to take him down. When you have this level of confidence in your ground game, coupled with your opponents fear of your ground game, you can be sloppy offensively and DARE your opponent to take you down. That's what Ortega does. He looks like he might have the best chin in the UFC, never been hurt and has taken clean shots. He is ramping up the pressure in his fights until his opponents make a mistake and then it's all over. This guy for me is the most dangerous guy in the UFC right now and I genuinely believe he can go to 155 and dominate there. These guys betting against him will continue to lose money. I'll happily take dog odds on Ortega vs Khabib and I am pretty sure I'll be cashing that bet.

This Ortega guy is LEGIT

You would have Khabib as the underdog vs Ortega? lmfao

 

[Dianabol]

Don't get mad. Just trying to give another angle here.

lol not getting mad but I don't think there is much knowledge behind your opinion on those fighters

 

[Kyle Stephens]

@Jordan3399 I don't think you've read all that we wrote back and forth with Gugabe to write an opinion. And you clearly didn't read my response to Gugabe which was this (read the whole thing, don't be lazy)

I did not say Ortega was landing more. You are adding things.
Edgar played himself in this fight. He was going all offence and gave away his timing in like two minutes. In the same time he received no info about the timing and attacks of Ortega because Ortega was not attacking, just watching.

Most of Edgar's effective strikes were kicks. Which he abandoned a minute into the fight, I can't tell why, but he did. He punched Ortega 4-5 times with an overhand right. From which not all landed clean. I think like a half were glancing blows off Ortega's shoulder. He was defending pretty well. The notion that he is terribly hittable comes from the fact that 1 - he really is hittable, and 2 he likes to take time off to set his traps. And he is not that hittable, a lot of the punches are landing on his chest area or forearms etc.

Ortega will lose the little battles, but he makes sure he wins the war every single time. If you watch the fights where he struggles the most it's without any doubt when he faces some bjj magician like him, or close to him. So he have to make it a war because he can't use his Jiu Jitsu to level the plaingfield or to outright tip the scales heavily in his favour.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I don't think there is much knowledge behind your opinion on those fighters

 

[Gugabe]

@Jordan3399 I don't think you've read all that we wrote back and forth with Gugabe to write an opinion. And you clearly didn't read my response to Gugabe which was this (read the whole thing, don't be lazy)



Ortega will lose the little battles, but he makes sure he wins the war every single time. If you watch the fights where he struggles the most it's without any doubt when he faces some bjj magician like him, or close to him. So he have to make it a war because he can't use his Jiu Jitsu to level the plaingfield or to outright tip the scales heavily in his favour.

I think that you're creating some image of Ortega in your head as masterfully creating a fight-ending opportunity. So far he hasn't run out of time to land something, but there's such little coherence and sense in his game that it's really, really hard to take him seriously as anything other than a curiosity.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

If you don't know how Ortega's fighting style works, you just don't bet on his fights. How much simpler I have to put it in words for you to get it? English is not my 1st language, I have limits in how clear I can express myself.

I don't think we are here to discuss on lenght these fights. They are like 10-12 fights per card, we don't have that much time. Nothing wrong with a lot of talk (I like it), but we don't need it here, it's counter productive. We just need enough information to know if one fight is easy to predict to a degree that one can bet that fight is going in a certain way and the odds we get from the bookie warrant a bet. Fucking simple.

Any bullshit we add to this is mudding the waters and we are succeptable to connect our picks (even worse if they are bets) with our egos, and when this happens, there is no way in the world somebody gives up on his or her pick (bet) even when solid arguments are presented.

I am giving up on my picks all the time. I don't want to lose money just because I want to defend my point to the end of times. If I feel I am wrong I give up on the spot.

 

[Jordan3399]

@Jordan3399 I don't think you've read all that we wrote back and forth with Gugabe to write an opinion. And you clearly didn't read my response to Gugabe which was this (read the whole thing, don't be lazy)



Ortega will lose the little battles, but he makes sure he wins the war every single time. If you watch the fights where he struggles the most it's without any doubt when he faces some bjj magician like him, or close to him. So he have to make it a war because he can't use his Jiu Jitsu to level the plaingfield or to outright tip the scales heavily in his favour.

He isn't a BJJ magician at all he is overrated af. He can't wrestle for shit and earlier in his career people could pass his guard comfortably its just later in his career the reputation he's built has made people pointlessly hesitant letting him catch them. Edgar could of easily just wrestle fucked him and easily has the BJJ to do so he just was hesitant so made it a striking battle which he easily was winning till one low percentage strike caught him. Even then Edgar a few years ago with a better chin and in his prime would of dominated and brushed that strike off.

Both Tavares and Brandao outgrappled him comfortably. On Brandao he just got a late sub and Tavares has a trash chin. Even Moicano took him down fine when he committed effectively to it and didn't do a sloppy panic shot which let him grab a guillotine.

 

[Gugabe]

If you don't know how Ortega's fighting style works, you just don't bet on his fights. How much simpler I have to put it in words for you to get it? English is not my 1st language, I have limits in how clear I can express myself.

I don't think we are here to discuss on lenght these fights. They are like 10-12 fights per card, we don't have that much time. Nothing wrong with a lot of talk (I like it), but we don't need it here, it's counter productive. We just need enough information to know if one fight is easy to predict to a degree that one can bet that fight is going in a certain way and the odds we get from the bookie warrant a bet. Fucking simple.

Any bullshit we add to this is mudding the waters and we are succeptable to connect our picks (even worse if they are bets) with our egos, and when this happens, there is no way in the world somebody gives up on his or her pick (bet) even when solid arguments are presented.

I am giving up on my picks all the time. I don't want to lose money just because I want to defend my point to the end of times. If I feel I am wrong I give up on the spot.

I understand perfectly how his fighting style operates. I'm just saying he's an outlier in that he's gone all-in with unsuited 2-7 a few times in a row and won. There is no greater rhyme or reason to what he does, he will be out of the top 10 in the UFC FW division before the end of 2020. There is no solid pro-Ortega argument that isn't just trying to find a deeper logic in what is a chaotic, ugly, unstructured fighting style that occasionally produces finishes.

 

[Jordan3399]

Honestly find this superhuman status Ortega has with people here ridiculous but not complaining given the odds I'm getting. Everyone forgets everyone has a punchers chance in MMA and putting getting was is pretty obviously very low percentage results to whatever mystical argument they can think of in their head to justify a bet.
Everyone forgotten about Conor's supposed insane KO power and how he'd starch everyone up to 170?

 

[NorthernLights]

I understand perfectly how his fighting style operates. I'm just saying he's an outlier in that he's gone all-in with unsuited 2-7 a few times in a row and won. There is no greater rhyme or reason to what he does, he will be out of the top 10 in the UFC FW division before the end of 2020. There is no solid pro-Ortega argument that isn't just trying to find a deeper logic in what is a chaotic, ugly, unstructured fighting style that occasionally produces finishes.

You make him sound like a skinny Derrick Lewis...

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Everyone forgets everyone has a punchers chance in MMA

You are generalizing a lot here, man. Frist - almost no girls in the WMMA has puncher's chance and the light guys up to LW too. You have to put your punches together, it's not stone age MMA, everybody has at least decent training and can defend simple attacks. If somebody falls down from a single punch (puncher's chance), this punch need to be either set up very smart or in a long combo, or you have to have really weak chin. Puncher's chance is another way to say if you don't get extremely lucky - you are losing.

Everyone forgotten about Conor's supposed insane KO power and how he'd starch everyone up to 170?

Because he is hyped as fuck and he has that aura around him, he says a lot funny shit, he predicts his fights, have charisma and he is really KO artist. It's a combination of a lot of things. So people are easy to fall for this things.

 

[Dianabol]

He isn't a BJJ magician at all he is overrated af. He can't wrestle for shit and earlier in his career people could pass his guard comfortably its just later in his career the reputation he's built has made people pointlessly hesitant letting him catch them. Edgar could of easily just wrestle fucked him and easily has the BJJ to do so he just was hesitant so made it a striking battle which he easily was winning till one low percentage strike caught him. Even then Edgar a few years ago with a better chin and in his prime would of dominated and brushed that strike off.

Both Tavares and Brandao outgrappled him comfortably. On Brandao he just got a late sub and Tavares has a trash chin. Even Moicano took him down fine when he committed effectively to it and didn't do a sloppy panic shot which let him grab a guillotine.

I understand perfectly how his fighting style operates. I'm just saying he's an outlier in that he's gone all-in with unsuited 2-7 a few times in a row and won. There is no greater rhyme or reason to what he does, he will be out of the top 10 in the UFC FW division before the end of 2020. There is no solid pro-Ortega argument that isn't just trying to find a deeper logic in what is a chaotic, ugly, unstructured fighting style that occasionally produces finishes.

Between the both of you how many L's has Ortega given you?

You guys are just hating at this point, can't take what you're saying seriously

What excuse will you have when Ortega beats Holloway? "Oh he had a concussion, Holloway wasn't 100%, Ortega got lucky again"

 

[Gugabe]

Between the both of you how many L's has Ortega given you?

You guys are just hating at this point, can't take what you're saying seriously

What excuse will you have when Ortega beats Holloway? "Oh he had a concussion, Holloway wasn't 100%, Ortega got lucky again"

Depends how he does it. If he puts together a well-rounded performance, sure. If he memes out a shitty guard-pull sub, I'm gonna keep fading him since he's a combination of a ton of factors that should not be working in MMA.

You make him sound like a skinny Derrick Lewis...

Relative to the division, he is. Hell, Derrick Lewis atleast relies on a very tangible attribute in the form of his insane power. Ortega leans on chin, cardio and guard BJJ. Three things that I happily fade all day. I'll fade Ortega till he changes his style. Maybe he'll retire one day as undefeated GOAT, but I'm willing to bet that he'll fall back to the mean and stop wildly overperforming his skill level. Miracle runs happen.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

 

[ill800]

@DevilsPt2, @ill800
I get that you are tempted by + money on Jedrzejczyk, but she does not have a clear path to victory here.


He does not even need to be that uberguni to beat him. Stylistically it's really close to a nightmare match-up (for Cowboy). Since Alex was thrown out ATT because he was a dick he has zero progress in the technical department. He have so little of substance in his game - mainly athleticism. He is like Jake Matthews, but somehow worse. At least Jake won't do some stupid shit for the sake of it to tire himself out with them or give the opponent openings.


Think he was massive before USADA. I've seen comparison pictures of him before and now and there is a difference.


No, he would not win. Hooker is like 70%+ TDD and he can defend himself on the ground. It's a long shot to bet Burns v someone that he does not any options but to grapple to win. He does not have the wrestling. Wrestling is king in MMA, don't care what people say.

In this match-up I don't like either of these guys for betting. Burns is all or nothing guy, he never wins decisions. OAM I am dissapointed by him. I remember watched him v Drew Dober and he was so sharp there with his striking, man it was night and day from his fight with Gouti. But I don't know if it was a match-up thing or what, this striking we didn't see it ever again. If we are talking Oliver from the Dober fight, I would say he is a LOCK to win. But is he gonna fight like that? And Firas fighters don't inspire confidence in me. He is a great talker, philosopher, but training and gameplanning I can't say. If you are the right type of fighter, like Bektic, who is all offence and need some restraint to make him more defensively responsible I would say yes, but everybody else - not so good. I can tell you a number of TriStar guys that lost in the last 5 months and the opponent they lost weren't even that good.

Of course she has a clear path to victory.
I can’t believe this is even a conversation

 

[Gugabe]

Of course she has a clear path to victory.
I can’t believe this is even a conversation

Yeah. I'm small on JJ, and it'll prettymuch be down to Shevchenko not putting up the same volume stats as JJ. I'm actually expecting Shevchenko to win the 'fight', but JJ to win a sketchy contentious split dec on doubling Shevchenko's volume. Shevchenko doesn't do a hell of a lot if she doesn't have a reason to.