Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jordan3399, Mar 31, 2019.
Izzy’s pants height advantage is off the charts. Confidence increase.
Geez, Poirier down to +170. Sorta tempted to arb out of my 1.5u on him at +225. Someone hold me.
Jeez I don't think that's true. Pantoja is no joke at all on the mat. I'm not saying it's the other way around either, but no way do I think Reis has anything close to a "significant" grappling advantage.
Because f*** it.
Only need a bet like this to come in once every 20 years to make a profit.
Well, I cant say I'm very confident Costa wins but I do think you're overconfident. Costa has a HS wrestling background while I heard Davis first martial art was BJJ at 20, his takedown in the Peterson fight looked like it came from a guy who has never actually wrestled before. I doubt he gets takedowns.
If you asked Davis what his ideal fight type was it would look like the Peterson fight, mostly standup with a heavy bag that may attempt weak takedowns, and he was still a shell of his rd1 in rd3. If you cant fight hard for 15 minutes in your ideal fight then what can you do? His style is very taxing in the best case. He arguably lost the 2nd round and the 3rd was close as well up until the knee.
The only reason he looked ok in rd1 against Zabit was because Zabit was playing ambush predator, figuring out his preys tendencies. Look how Zabit came out in rd2. If he came out in rd1 that same way, without trying to be tactical, Davis gets finished earlier and people cant say, "Well, he looked ok against Zabit for a rd." Costa is just going to play predator and hunt the finish from the opening bell.
Significant may be too strong of a word, but I certainly think that Reis is the better grappler. Compare their performances against Ortiz for example. I'm not saying that Reis subbing him is particularly likely, but at those prices I have to take the shot.
$50.00 $17,323.13 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 4/13/19 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Poirier wins by submission +775* vs Any other result
Pending 4/13/19 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1162 Adesanya points handicap -5½ +120* vs Gastelum points handicap
Pending 4/13/19 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1627 Reis wins by submission +1705* vs Any other result
I would say Pantoja accepts bottom more readily than Reis for sure. In terms of winning rounds, that matters. I don't think that necessarily makes him the better grappler from the perspective of who's more likely to secure a sub.
That said, the prices you got are kinda bonkers, so don't take me saying this to mean I'm knocking the bets. I can see why you'd take a stab at them.
Agreed. I'm honestly expecting the fight to go the distance and I do think that Pantoja is slightly more likely to finish, but I don't think Reis subbing him is nearly as unlikely as those lines suggest.
I've only just watched Randy Costas fights and I must say he's not as bad as what I've been led to believe. He is really green and hasn't gone the distance yet. There are plenty of unknowns but he is athletic, reasonably diverse striking and a good camp. Call me crazy but I believe he has a good chance of scoring a stoppage over a depleted davis
Yeah he seems powerful enough, but his fights have lasted like 30 seconds each so it's easy to be powerful when you're fighting the worst of the worst jobbers and know you're going to be putting them out in the 1st round. That pace doesn't seem sustainable. He'll have to try to do the same against Davis who hasn't been KO'd yet despite fighting legit UFC level competition. That's a tough task for a guy who hasn't experienced a shred of difficulty yet in his fight career.
That said, I did take a Costa Rd1 hedge for about +400.
He will win via knee to face
Im betting Randy Costa, I think he will win.
Randy costa has only 4 pro fights and against absolute total shit fighters. He hasnt even gone past 30 seconds. He might even be a good fighter but nothing I have seen of him confirms that. Betting that guy would be like betting on cm punk vs mike jackson, hoping for a miracle.
I actually think CM Punk would beat every guy Costa has beat. I mean, these guys are the worst of the worst
Costa will smoke davis.
He dealt with them accordingly. Do you expect him to fight Marlon Moraes in the regional scene as a 23 year old ? lol
It’s fight day and I’m still hoping to see Adesanya at 1.60 or above but I will probably have to take him at 1.57.
lol he should fight someone with a winning record in the regional scene before coming to the ufc lol
Yeah but he comes from a good camp with a lot of UFC fighters. Sometimes the connections you have are enough to guarantee you a shot. They must have told Sean Shelby that he is good I guess.
We will see if it’s too early or not.
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