UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya

[Stat_Collector]

Why is it a huge factor? Was it a huge factor for glover when he beat Thiago?

did you see a lack of explosiveness in his movements? I didn’t

In the first round sure, but he doesn't try to getup when he gets taken down, i question his leg conditions or knee. After years of blasting people in the legs it also takes a toll on your own legs. He also looks like he carries massive weigh on his upper body to his legs, Look at Rekic and his legs are massive and his kicks have more pop to them or the same at best. Glover was old himself so he could not do much to Santos, plus Glover targets the head with punches while Rakic goes after the whole body a lot more.

I never count out big men like Santos. But its one or bust , as the rounds progress.

 

[Oblivian]

@Invictis any leans to Kai Kara vs Bontorin?

Honestly, I think Kai Kara France is consistently overvalued. He arguably lost to Paiva as a moderate/large favorite and has lost twice as a fav to Moreno and Royval. He's literally always the favorite and Bontorin can definitely play spoiler again here.

 

[Broe.]

Honestly, I think Kai Kara France is consistently overvalued. He arguably lost to Paiva as a moderate/large favorite and has lost twice as a fav to Moreno and Royval. He's literally always the favorite and Bontorin can definitely play spoiler again here.

Yes another guy like Hernandez who always gets short odds and almost always looks like shit.

 

[TrueAscension]

And you will still loose money on them long term.

This is incorrect. The vast majority of people who don't understand how to effectively parlay will lose money in the long term but I have never had a losing year and I incorporate parlays into my wagering all of the time.

 

[The Eagle]

What am I missing with Benavidez? To me he is shot and et the end of his career. Askar is future contender and should get the win here. -140 is very tasty.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Cassey-Cruz Askarov-Benavidez are tricky fights imo where the dogs are barking.

 

[Everygoodnametook]

skimming through props rn and I see nice value on -146 for Jake Matthews vs Sean Brady to go to the distance

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[BigSteve]

What am I missing with Benavidez? To me he is shot and et the end of his career. Askar is future contender and should get the win here. -140 is very tasty.

why is he shot, because he got finished by figureido twice?

3 fights before he Koed Formiga and Perez ( both fought Fig, one beat him ). Also outworked Ortiz who I still think is a better fighter than Askarov

 

[Kazda1]

why is he shot, because he got finished by figureido twice?

3 fights before he Koed Formiga and Perez ( both fought Fig, one beat him ). Also outworked Ortiz who I still think is a better fighter than Askarov

No doubt I think Askarov will likely be outmatched by JoeB in the wrestling department, I just don't think Askarov will have his ways there. My worries come from JoeB always leading with his head in the striking exchanges. True he's beaten Ortiz (who I can't say is better then Askarov yet because I'm not sure) and Formiga (who's washed up) but Askarov looks to have some power if he clips you right. Im not saying it will happen here, but im concerned.

 

[Kazda1]

Song all the way

Does it worry you Phillips is improving at a higher clip technique wise and is coming down a weight class? Im worried those leg kicks are going to be a problem here. Same for the takedowns. Song has a good get up game, but if you're going to have to keep getting up he's not going to be able to enforce his game much.

I bet Song in the Vera fight. I didn't watch it live but when I watched it a few days ago, I realize I got a break. Phillips isn't Vera but I think he's very capable of replicating that fight here.

 

[Sono07]

My biggest take aways from the media stuff so far. Nunes says she will KO Megan and I believe her. She had plenty of chances against Spencer but went the distance instead, probably just to prove her cardio was good. I don't see her doing that here, I think she comes out strong and ends the fight early enough to put her new baby to bed.

Rakic drilling clinch work and practicing wrestling shot drills on the embedded. Not saying it works but I'd be shocked if he didn't wrestle Santos. Thiago may look the part but I still doubt his legs are as good as they were before fighting Jones. Having to completely relearn how to walk after his injuries is a big red flag for me. If Rakic makes it a grinding grappling match I doubt Santos can keep up with the transitions.

 

[Bakayoko]

Brady,Makachev and Rakic decisions all the way.Medic has value too.Leaning towards Kenny.Wouldn't touch the Izzy fight,he relies a lot on his height and reach advantage,could get caught when he leans back against Jan.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Does it worry you Phillips is improving at a higher clip technique wise and is coming down a weight class? Im worried those leg kicks are going to be a problem here. Same for the takedowns. Song has a good get up game, but if you're going to have to keep getting up he's not going to be able to enforce his game much.

I bet Song in the Vera fight. I didn't watch it live but when I watched it a few days ago, I realize I got a break. Phillips isn't Vera but I think he's very capable of replicating that fight here.

I don't think Kyler will grapple him, he said in interviews he wants flashy Kos. And his striking is on par with song's , Song's reach will put him at a disadvantage, I see Phillips beating him in a one sided decision, he's got so much confidence for a reason.

 

[Broe.]

Does it worry you Phillips is improving at a higher clip technique wise and is coming down a weight class? Im worried those leg kicks are going to be a problem here. Same for the takedowns. Song has a good get up game, but if you're going to have to keep getting up he's not going to be able to enforce his game much.

I bet Song in the Vera fight. I didn't watch it live but when I watched it a few days ago, I realize I got a break. Phillips isn't Vera but I think he's very capable of replicating that fight here.

They are both bantamweight fighters. Philips is too unproven for me. Song is a very good and very fast striker with extremely fast hands. I doubt Philips will be ready for it.

Also supposedly Song is 23 yrs old but I highly doubt that. I think he is more like 29 yrs old with a shitload of experience, something Philips severely lacks. Great fight anyway looking forward to this one.

 

[rille31]

This is incorrect. The vast majority of people who don't understand how to effectively parlay will lose money in the long term but I have never had a losing year and I incorporate parlays into my wagering all of the time.

Sure but chances are you would do even better without them.

Parlays are just singles where you rollover the winnings to the next single bet.

 

[Kazda1]

With so many great fights to bet on this weekend heres to hoping covid doesn't screw us over last minute.

 

[Sono07]

Nunes KO at +120 looks like value to me. Easy hedge with her DEC at +585, or fight goes the distance at +415. The concensus seems to be Nunes stops Megan and Amanda has 7 ufc KO/tkos and only 2 subs. 65% of Nunes total wins are by KO and I think she stops Anderson before the 4th, unless Megan forgets to cut her toenails again...

Megan training out of Glory MMA makes me more confident. James Krause's fighters seem to all have one gameplan, pressure forward and eat punches until either the opponent breaks or they succumb to the damage.

 

[Kazda1]

Is the ulberg fight on contender series not coming up in fight pass or espn + for anyone else other than myself? It's ridiculous how difficult it is to find certain things

 

[Kazda1]

I don't think Kyler will grapple him, he said in interviews he wants flashy Kos. And his striking is on par with song's , Song's reach will put him at a disadvantage, I see Phillips beating him in a one sided decision, he's got so much confidence for a reason.

Kind of think so too but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. It feels like one of those fights where "if you haven't seen it yet, there's no reason to think it'll happen" - until one fighter shows you new wrinkles in his game. Sometimes it's great to be out in front of the curve and fade the public. I feel like that's the case here.