UFC 260: Stipe vs Ngannou 2

[Deleted member 316645]

I know. Francis isn’t going to win a decision against Stipe...

I know.

But can you imagine dropping over a grand on Francis, and him somehow winning a decision, and having taken +105 instead of -115.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't usually go that far back with tape. This fight in particular is 13 fights and 4 years ago. 7 Fights later he fights Graves who is much better fighter with great grapping. He has wins in UFC over Brown and Luque, and Gooden did much better over the 5 rounds even though he still lost.

Have you taped any of Abubakar out of curiosity??

So the verdict is in , in one of his most recent fights from 2019 he was taken down 3 times by a 3-1 record fighter before he won on a guillotine.

3 of Jared's losses came by grappling experts . 2 of Abu's loss came from two active ufc fighters with one having a heavy russian sambo/wrestling background and another loss in 2018 against a rival sambo fighter.

Based on what I know Abubakar has been a combat athlete for much longer and more combat tested skills.

I just can't see Jared winning this. I feel like this is a nightmare opponent for Jared.

ABUBAKAR NURMAGOMEDOV videos clips fights highlights shows (mmacore.tv)

 

[Deleted member 316645]

So Francis opened at -225, since then an immense amount of money has come in on Stipe.

You'd think, like the Holland fight, that all the casuals would be on Francis. Yet over 70% of people are on Stipe this time around.

I'm going to wait until later this week to place my bet, as I think Francis may get to +odds.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I want to like Worthy but I'm still not sold on the guy. Maybe it's his style maybe it is near complete lack of footwork and questionable wrestling. Fortunately Mullarkey isn't much better with his footwork. Both men use alot linear movement and like to reset with the same kinda L step pattern.

On the feet I think Jamie is a little out gunned here. Khama's hands are pretty fast and he has decent power too. I don't like the way he follows opponents around but I doubt Mullarkey can punish him for it here.

Khama's stance and style should score him points here even if he doesn't get a KO. He has kinda a tai boxer style, up right stance, mainly uses boxing combos and follows up alot of them with low kicks. The stance worries me a bit though. Can he stop Mullarkey's shots and stay off his back here? I think Worthy is value but I'll probably play his NSC line incase he gets grapple fucked to a 30-27 decision.

Worthy is a safe pick, he may be older but he is only a liability against an opponent with heavier hands which Mullarkey does not have.

I dont think he is going to let Mullarkey into the fight, quick KO.

 

[mkess101]

So Francis opened at -225, since then an immense amount of money has come in on Stipe.

You'd think, like the Holland fight, that all the casuals would be on Francis. Yet over 70% of people are on Stipe this time around.

I'm going to wait until later this week to place my bet, as I think Francis may get to +odds.

I honestly wonder if it's the opposite, casuals betting Stipe. They see he's the champ and "Hey he beat him once..."

The thing is, the margin of error is SO small for about 8-10 minutes if you bet against Francis. Stipe won, and did a great job of doing EXACTLY what he needed to do in order to drown Francis and get him tired. And even with all that, Stipe was objectively still pretty damn fortunate to not get put away early. He got hit with some shots that were SO close to landing a tiny bit more flush and ending his night. He showed a great chin and excellent composure, can't take that away from him.

I just can't see loading up on anyone vs Ngannou right now. Stipe can win again, but he needs the exact same things to go right as happened the first time. And it's just way easier to see Francis land something big on an older and likely less durable and mobile Stipe. Especially in a smaller cage.

 

[Sono07]

Worthy is a safe pick, he may be older but he is only a liability against an opponent with heavier hands which Mullarkey does not have.

I dont think he is going to let Mullarkey into the fight, quick KO.

I think a strong wrestler or someone with much better movement could give Worthy alot of trouble. I really doubt Jamie can do either of those unless his top control has got much better. Honestly I think Khama stops him here too, and probably early.

 

[Jordan3399]

Just a reminder that Worthy's chin is pure glass.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Luque KO is +330, that's pretty enticing.

 

[Sono07]

Just a reminder that Worthy's chin is pure glass.

Is it though? Before Ottman he hadn't been stopped by strikes in 7 fights and 3 and a half years. Even then he never went out in the Ottman fight and got right back up.

Only two KOs Ive seen were the Ottman and Felder fights though. Even then Ottman got cut briefly for smuggling "potatoes" onto fight island after that fight. Safe to say Ottman probably had the strength of many "spuds" on his side that night so I will forgive that one. Something he won't have to worry about with Jamie who has only stopped people on the Australian regional scene.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Is it though? Before Ottman he hadn't been stopped by strikes in 7 fights and 3 and a half years. Even then he never went out in the Ottman fight and got right back up.

Only two KOs Ive seen were the Ottman and Felder fights though. Even then Ottman got cut briefly for smuggling "potatoes" onto fight island after that fight. Safe to say Ottman probably had the strength of many "spuds" on his side that night so I will forgive that one. Something he won't have to worry about with Jamie who has only stopped people on the Australian regional scene.

Ottman throws bombs and is so far above Mullarkey.

I thought this fight seemed tasty and I'm glad people agree, I think we're onto something here. Whoever mentioned thinking less of Riddell, I thought that going into the Gregor Gillespie fight that got nixed last weekend. Wanted to play that too.

 

[Sono07]

Ottman throws bombs and is so far above Mullarkey.

I thought this fight seemed tasty and I'm glad people agree, I think we're onto something here. Whoever mentioned thinking less of Riddell, I thought that going into the Gregor Gillespie fight that got nixed last weekend. Wanted to play that too.

I'm going to see what his nsc line is. I think Khama is more likely to get the stoppage. Mullarkey does have a path in my opinion. He is a grinding wrestler type if he gets caught I can see him spamming TD's.

Neither man are very good wrestlers but Khama's TDD isn't spectacular. Luis Pena probably would have won 2 rounds of grappling if he Khama hadn't locked up a guillotine when he pulled guard in r3.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I'm going to see what his nsc line is. I think Khama is more likely to get the stoppage. Mullarkey does have a path in my opinion. He is a grinding wrestler type if he gets caught I can see him spamming TD's.

Neither man are very good wrestlers but Khama's TDD isn't spectacular. Luis Pena probably would have won 2 rounds of grappling if he Khama hadn't locked up a guillotine when he pulled guard in r3.

That's the only worry I see here, but I thin Khama is better at avoiding Mullarkey's ... gritty... takedown efforts unless he just backs into the cage.

I suspect he's going to come out throwing bombs (as he does) and Mullarkey's going to be there to be hit. Khama has defensive holes striking too, but he's got some bombs

 

[The Eagle]

So we are not getting any replacement fights? Card doesn't look good now.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Thinking there’s a chance that Shane young could out volume Omar morales and steal a decision. That pressure style could work against him here with morales though. Young hangs out in the pocket and relies a bit too much on his head movement for my liking against a big puncher who’s always looking to return shots.

seems like young may land more but morales will land the more significant strikes.
I’m figuring the line will be somewhere in the +250 range. I think I’d like +300.

young got hurt by a jab from l’dovit klein and was finished by blazing combination in his last fight. Morales was thoroughly out struck by the skilled kickboxer giga chickadze in his 145lb debut

think the line should be a bit closer. Value will likely be on young decision. Morales is more likely to get the finish. Don’t see young getting a stoppage in many scenarios.

probably a closely contested striking match here.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Thinking there’s a chance that Shane young could out volume Omar morales and steal a decision. That pressure style could work against him here with morales though. Young hangs out in the pocket and relies a bit too much on his head movement for my liking against a big puncher who’s always looking to return shots.

seems like young may land more but morales will land the more significant strikes.
I’m figuring the line will be somewhere in the +250 range. I think I’d like +300.

young got hurt by a jab from l’dovit klein and was finished by blazing combination in his last fight. Morales was thoroughly out struck by the skilled kickboxer giga chickadze in his 145lb debut

think the line should be a bit closer. Value will likely be on young decision. Morales is more likely to get the finish. Don’t see young getting a stoppage in many scenarios.

probably a closely contested striking match here.

Wasn't Shane pulled from this card too?

 

[Jordan3399]

Is it though? Before Ottman he hadn't been stopped by strikes in 7 fights and 3 and a half years. Even then he never went out in the Ottman fight and got right back up.

Only two KOs Ive seen were the Ottman and Felder fights though. Even then Ottman got cut briefly for smuggling "potatoes" onto fight island after that fight. Safe to say Ottman probably had the strength of many "spuds" on his side that night so I will forgive that one. Something he won't have to worry about with Jamie who has only stopped people on the Australian regional scene.

There's a few more, he doesn't just get stopped, he's getting put out cold and relatively easily. That seven fight run he went on was vs cans, his defence marginally improved but it's still all high guard and hope. Mullarkey's a good enough boxer to figure that out.

Huntsville MMA fighter knocks out opponent in first round - YouTube - Nelson
- Bessette
Video - UFC Fight Pass - Starts at 00:32:00 - Retic

 

[Wiktoruspro]

There's a few more, he doesn't just get stopped, he's getting put out cold and relatively easily. That seven fight run he went on was vs cans, his defence marginally improved but it's still all high guard and hope. Mullarkey's a good enough boxer to figure that out.

Huntsville MMA fighter knocks out opponent in first round - YouTube - Nelson
- Bessette
Video - UFC Fight Pass - Starts at 00:32:00 - Retic

That was at 145 lbs , his chin is abit better at 155.

 

[BigSteve]

So the verdict is in , in one of his most recent fights from 2019 he was taken down 3 times by a 3-1 record fighter before he won on a guillotine.

3 of Jared's losses came by grappling experts . 2 of Abu's loss came from two active ufc fighters with one having a heavy russian sambo/wrestling background and another loss in 2018 against a rival sambo fighter.

Based on what I know Abubakar has been a combat athlete for much longer and more combat tested skills.

I just can't see Jared winning this. I feel like this is a nightmare opponent for Jared.

ABUBAKAR NURMAGOMEDOV videos clips fights highlights shows (mmacore.tv)

Graves fight is on Fight Pass.

If Abubakar fought better competition he would have a lot more losses. Even his current losses, Zawada is nothing special. Kusch is a journeyman that is more of a grappling ace, but he dropped Abubakar before subbing him. His last fight before UFC, he drew to Bojan Velickovic who was very underwhelming in the UFC. He is lucky that was a 2 round fight, he was totaly gassed in the second and Bojan was taking him down, hurting him with strikes. If thats a 3 rounder Nurmagamedov is 1-3 in his last 4 to average competition. After that fight, I watched all his other decisions, and he gasses badly in all of them. He gets saved by bottom-of-the-barrel matchmaking. Yes Gooden is pretty average himself, but he will be there all 3 rounds and he will fight for your money. It is a value play, as there is no way in hell you could play someone as flakey as Abubakar at those odds. I might even live bet it after round 1 and a couple of takedowns improve Goodens odds. Or after round 2 if its 1-1 going into third.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

There's a few more, he doesn't just get stopped, he's getting put out cold and relatively easily. That seven fight run he went on was vs cans, his defence marginally improved but it's still all high guard and hope. Mullarkey's a good enough boxer to figure that out.

Huntsville MMA fighter knocks out opponent in first round - YouTube - Nelson
- Bessette
Video - UFC Fight Pass - Starts at 00:32:00 - Retic

So you believe Jamie Mullarkey is a better striker than Khama? I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

So you believe Jamie Mullarkey is a better striker than Khama? I don't understand the point you are trying to make.

The point he's trying to make is that worthy's chin is more fragile than china glass.