Before I go on a rant about Woodley here, I've been thinking about playing Stipe by submission. He had a ton of ground control where he could have gotten Francis out of there last time I thought, unless I'm misremembering.
Now, Woodley, man, you guys make me feel like a huge Woodley hater. I really have never been terribly impressed with the guy. He's got some skills, but I just see his resume as one with a ton of nuance to it.
Lawler is his best win imo, and even it... I don't want to call it a fluke, but I think it was an unlikely occurrence and potentially linked to the absolute wars Robbie was in leading up to it. He was never really the same after that fight. Was it cuz of this? I don't know.
I didn't think he beat Thompson in either outing, he's tailor made to beat Maia, he matches up very well with Till. His win over Condit is weird. Gastelum was hospitalized before their fight and it was still super close (did Woodley have something wrong with him too here? I can't remember).
I do think Luque is a big step down, but the guy is up there in age and has retained virtually the same fighting style for getting close to a decade. And it's a style with some very obvious and executable counters.
I think Luque it's safe to say that Luque is likely a better striker than Burns, and he nearly took Woodley out in R1. I think if Luque rocks him like that, he's going to find the finish. I suppose there's a chance Woodley could dead him, but I don't know if he's going to have the time or space or energy to land the hail mary bomb.