UFC 262 Chandler vs Olivera

[PuertoRican]

UFC 262 is in Texas. Texas fighters: Andrea Lee & Kevin Aguilar

 

[BigSteve]

every time I want to take a break, i get pulled back innnnnnnn. Its not easy passing on the PPV's I tell ya

 

[AK-47]

anyone know why all my Bet365 bets are going to a trader for approval ?

I had this happen to me for period of time though im not sure why they do this. I played a few bets on both sides at evens on bet365 and another book to net some losses. not sure if it worked but they stopped referring me after some time

 

[DonQ94]

Watched a lot of tape for Barboza/Burgos because I thought it was this past weekend, and I don't see why Burgos is the favourite.

I think Barboza is being faded because of his recent record, even if you date it back to his 2017 fight with Khabib. He's 2-5 over that span, which in the eyes of many means, at the age of 34, he's done. Not to mention his recent drop down to the 145 lbs. division, where he lost his debut to Dan Ige and "only" won a decision over Amirkhani.

Dive into the record and the nuance tells a different story.
-Loss to Khabib. Well, yeah. The sports highest paced grappler put it on Barboza. While Burgos is a pressure fighter, he applies that pressure 100% differently than Khabib.

-Loss to Kevin Lee. Another high pressure grappler with some of the best wrestling in the division. Perhaps Kevin Lee's biggest win to date, he put a ground and pound clinic on Barboza. Took until the 5th round to finish it with a doctor's stoppage. Another unlikely method for Burgos to follow.

-Win vs Dan Hooker. Barboza beat the brakes off in a standup fight for the 2.5 rounds that it lasted. Became the first guy to finish Hooker.

-Loss vs Justin Gaethje: Gaethje chased Barboza down and blasted him. I think this is what people on the Burgos side are expecting him to do to Barboza. I don't think Burgos is on the same level as Gaethje, assume most would agree. This fight too had the eye poke incident, which, depending on your opinion, could have changed the results here (in my opinion, Gaethje's win was inevitable).

-Loss to Paul Felder. Myself, along with the vast majority of media and fans, thought Barboza won this mostly kickboxing fight.

-Loss to Dan Ige. Another close fight that the majority thought Barboza won. Barboza hurt Ige multiple times, Ige did not do the same.

-Win over Amirkhani. A mutual opponent Barboza and Burgos share. Although Burgos finished Amirkhani, Barboza looked a lot better in victory over him. Does it mean a lot? No, because Mr. Finland fights a style that isn't going to happen here. Both guys did fight him in a similar manner, however. Mr. Finland won the first round against Burgos with his grappling, but tired himself out in the process. Burgos finally finished off an exhausted Amirkhani late in Round 3. The commentary mentioned in the Barboza fight how Amirkhani had blown his weight cut for the Burgos fight, and it was definitely noticeable. He was able to take a beating (dropped twice by Barboza with punches) and managed to survive until the end, but was never in the fight.

Reasons I like Barboza, especially at even/plus odds:
-Barboza looks comfortable at 145. I was worried when he went down that he'd be one of those guys who lost his chin as he cut more weight. Does not seem to be the case. Mr. Finland landed a pretty decent punch in their fight, didn't phase him. Ige throws hard, but never hurt Barboza.

-Barboza hasn't lost his appetite for kicking. Still threw plenty against both Amirkhani and Ige, his most recent fights. Burgos is heavy on his lead leg and absorbs a lot of strikes. His power may be pretty high at 145, as he dropped Amirkhani 2x, and stung Ige with his hands.

-Burgos doesn't have huge power. His fighting style would significantly benefit if he had naturally big power. He just doesn't seem to be one of those guys. He's landed a lot of pretty big, clean shots in his wins, but his finishes come later in fights.

-Burogs has been dropped several times in his UFC career, including by Kurt Holobaugh. I don't think he has a "bad" chin by any means, but his fighting style is designed for a guy with an absolute granite chin and very heavy hands.

There's a lot of food for thought for everyone on this fight. I really like Barboza at even/dog odds, and I think you should too.

Nice analysis dude, I mostly agree with the things you say although I still have a lot of questions concerning Barboza against pressure fighters. The blueprint is out and he lost pretty much all the time against dudes that put him against the fence with relentless pace and pressure and take away his kicking game. Burgos fits that archetype imo. Matchup wise he feels similar to Ferguson with better boxing, but worse jiujitsu.

 

[Oblivian]

What do you guys think of the Schnell Bontorin fight? I want to try something new instead of betting pretty much the same amount of money on every fight i want to try a big bet every event im talking myabe like 200-300$ besides my normal 50-75$ I really Like schnell. Are there any other fights that you guys really like has to be a Fav no more then -200?

I actually like Bontorin in that fight. Schnell will not have a BJJ edge and he can always get clipped standing. I'd be very surprised if he gets a sub unless he rocks Bontorin first or Bontorin gasses hard. Otherwise, Bontorin can probably control Schnell on the ground and I think he'll land bigger shots standing.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Love love love Chandler here. I have a ton of respect for Chucky Olives but I'm not sure what his path to victory is here. Clinch against the fence, try for a trip/scramble and snatch the submission? I love this matchup stylistically for Chandler.

A lot of very interesting matchups elsewhere. I lean Muniz and Vannata and will probably end up playing them small.

After Tony's last 2 fights I have to lean Dariush here. He has the grappling and the striking to put Tony away. Prime Tony would walk him down and gas him. Not sure what Tony has left in the tank after his last 2 fights. This is a fork in the road moment for Tony. If he loses this fight it's off the cliff with his career, unfortunately.

Am I the only one who's bullish on Joker after watching Edmen get ragdolled by Brunson? My initial reaction is Joker takes him down at will and beats the shit out of him. I'll have to think about this one a bit longer, don't want to get too crazy,

I kinda like Barboza here but betting on him in the past hasn't been kind to me. Figured he would have been a slight favorite, however. Intriguing fight - I might have to pass.

 

[Jordan3399]

anyone know why all my Bet365 bets are going to a trader for approval ?

Congratulations you've won too much money from them

 

[Bakayoko]

I haven't seen in a long time such contrast views as on Chandler-Olivieira.Some are going hard on Chandler,some hard on Oliveira,interesting.I'm high on Da Bronx,I'll write it down later why.

 

[Jordan3399]

I haven't seen in a long time such contrast views as on Chandler-Olivieira.Some are going hard on Chandler,some hard on Oliveira,interesting.I'm high on Da Bronx,I'll write it down later why.

Quite funny to see so many strong opinions when it's two chinny guys with mediocre defence and KO power.

 

[Card]

FW debut

 

[mkess101]

Quite funny to see so many strong opinions when it's two chinny guys with mediocre defence and KO power.

When has Oliveira shown to be chinny at 155 though? He for sure was when he stupidly was killing himself to make 145, but now he's a massive LW and ate shots from Kevin Lee easily. Didn't even flinch.

The only time at 155 I can remember him folding to strikes was his first fight at LW to Felder. And that was more he got stuck in a bad spot and ate a bunch of shots and the ref had to stop it (Oliveira had Felder's back prior to that too and Felder did a great job staying calm and surviving).

I don't think it's accurate at all to say Do Bronx is chinny at LW. Seems not cutting a ridiculous amount of weight allows guys to not be rocked by a stiff breeze and I think that applies here.

 

[sonhow]

When has Oliveira shown to be chinny at 155 though? He for sure was when he stupidly was killing himself to make 145, but now he's a massive LW and ate shots from Kevin Lee easily. Didn't even flinch.

The only time at 155 I can remember him folding to strikes was his first fight at LW to Felder. And that was more he got stuck in a bad spot and ate a bunch of shots and the ref had to stop it (Oliveira had Felder's back prior to that too and Felder did a great job staying calm and surviving).

I don't think it's accurate at all to say Do Bronx is chinny at LW. Seems not cutting a ridiculous amount of weight allows guys to not be rocked by a stiff breeze and I think that applies here.

Charles gassed out putting Paul to submission grinder but I guess Paul is immune to pain. ( Based on that and especially the Barboza fights).

 

[ballsackarino]

Hermansson Shahbazyan OUT

 

[theTKDguy]

I really like the under 2.5 (is it set at 2.5 or 1.5?) and FDGTD for the ME. will put some cheese as soon as i can
I lean charles rn but chandler by ko is live. Hooker was the fav against chandler because, aside from "level of competition", he had a huge reach advantage, decent tdd and power. he didn't let his hands go and barely threw any kicks, didn't earn mike's respect so he closed the distance however he liked (jabbin the body of such a larger dude and no reaction ffs). charles isn't the greatest striker but he has improved quite a bit, i particularly like the front kicks he's shown, very quick and snappy. Mixing them up body head could give chandler fits at range. Unlike other dudes, oliveira isn't afraid to throw kicks against a wrestler, he ain't afraid of getting taken down cause he loves his guard game, and for a reason. chandler needs to cover a loot of space to land that overhand, and i think he's gonna eat some nasty strikes in the way. You may say charles guard is pretty high and his body is open, but then again charles' got that counter knee available too (just like hooker did, but he froze). Reality is, they are both LETHAL. Both have been finished before, and they're both finishers. I don't see this going to the ground on principle, but if it gets there, a finish is imminent too (either oliveira subs mike or chandler hammers him ala felder). I really doubt mike wants to engage in a grappling contest tho, im not seeing it. All in all, fight is hard to call but a finish is pretty much a sure thing.

barboza is nice as a dog against jab magnet burgos but not soo confident rn. burgos does have bricks for hands and edson gets wobbly more often than not.

livebetting tony after a good first round from dariush would be clutch, beneil's cardio is no bueno and tony's pace will get to him if it gets past the first half. tony most likely breaks him in the third in that scenario, tko.

Grundy is good, i think he should wrestle lando en route to a dec. edmen vs hermansson i think jack should be able to endure a tough first rd and then drown edmen and sub him or gnp. Even tho edmen is very good on the feet and he could catch jack in the first, i think jack is durable af. Anyways, i def don't love these last four plays in comparisson to my main bet. if any of you sherbros think the ME can hit the cards, try and talk me out of it please lol.

edit: shit, card is getting weaker by the hour. give giga a call and feed him a jobber

 

[ballsackarino]

https://www.tdlr.texas.gov/sports/sportsrules.htm#61111

One important thing to note is that these fights are happening in Texas and they are still using the old ruleset and judging criteria. Takedowns score more under this ruleset. The criteria on the Texas website is pretty vague I'm trying to find the actual criteria for the old rules. Here it is:

>Judges shall evaluate mixed martial arts techniques, such as effective striking, effective grappling, control of the fighting area, effective aggressiveness and defense. Evaluations shall be made in the order in which the techniques appear, giving the most weight in scoring to effective striking, effective grappling, control of the fighting area and effective aggressiveness and defense. Effective striking is judged by determining the number of legal strikes landed by a contestant and the significance of such legal strikes.

>Effective grappling is judged by considering the amount of successful executions of a legal takedown and reversals. Examples of factors to consider are take downs from standing position to mount position, passing the guard to mount position, and bottom position fighters using an active, threatening guard.

>Fighting area control is judged by determining who is dictating the pace, location and position of the bout. Examples of factors to consider are countering a grappler’s attempt at takedown by remaining standing and legally striking; taking down an opponent to force a ground fight; creating threatening submission attempts, passing the guard to achieve mount, and creating striking opportunities.

>Effective aggressiveness means moving forward and landing a legal strike or takedown.

>Effective defense means avoiding being struck, taken down or reversed while countering with offensive attacks.


https://www.abcboxing.com/committee-report-on-unified-rules-for-mma/

 

[Card]

 

[Jordan3399]

When has Oliveira shown to be chinny at 155 though? He for sure was when he stupidly was killing himself to make 145, but now he's a massive LW and ate shots from Kevin Lee easily. Didn't even flinch.

The only time at 155 I can remember him folding to strikes was his first fight at LW to Felder. And that was more he got stuck in a bad spot and ate a bunch of shots and the ref had to stop it (Oliveira had Felder's back prior to that too and Felder did a great job staying calm and surviving).

I don't think it's accurate at all to say Do Bronx is chinny at LW. Seems not cutting a ridiculous amount of weight allows guys to not be rocked by a stiff breeze and I think that applies here.

Maybe not a bad chin but dropped by Teymur plus the Felder fight on a run of opponents that hasn't been anything special. I can't recall Lee ever hurting anyone with his hands and Fergs shot. He loves charging in with zero headmovement chin high and is now going against one of the hardest hitting guys in the division.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Nice analysis dude, I mostly agree with the things you say although I still have a lot of questions concerning Barboza against pressure fighters. The blueprint is out and he lost pretty much all the time against dudes that put him against the fence with relentless pace and pressure and take away his kicking game. Burgos fits that archetype imo. Matchup wise he feels similar to Ferguson with better boxing, but worse jiujitsu.

Gonna rewatch Barboza vs Ferguson and Barboza vs Johnson tonight, but already have money down.

Shame about Ed/Hermansson being delayed. Kinda liked Shahbayzan pre tape as a dog. Think Jack is being overrated for his win over Kelvin

 

[theTKDguy]

I really like the under 2.5 (is it set at 2.5 or 1.5?) and FDGTD for the ME. will put some cheese as soon as i can
I lean charles rn but chandler by ko is live. Hooker was the fav against chandler because, aside from "level of competition", he had a huge reach advantage, decent tdd and power. he didn't let his hands go and barely threw any kicks, didn't earn mike's respect so he closed the distance however he liked (jabbin the body of such a larger dude and no reaction ffs). charles isn't the greatest striker but he has improved quite a bit, i particularly like the front kicks he's shown, very quick and snappy. Mixing them up body head could give chandler fits at range. Unlike other dudes, oliveira isn't afraid to throw kicks against a wrestler, he ain't afraid of getting taken down cause he loves his guard game, and for a reason. chandler needs to cover a loot of space to land that overhand, and i think he's gonna eat some nasty strikes in the way. You may say charles guard is pretty high and his body is open, but then again charles' got that counter knee available too (just like hooker did, but he froze). Reality is, they are both LETHAL. Both have been finished before, and they're both finishers. I don't see this going to the ground on principle, but if it gets there, a finish is imminent too (either oliveira subs mike or chandler hammers him ala felder). I really doubt mike wants to engage in a grappling contest tho, im not seeing it. All in all, fight is hard to call but a finish is pretty much a sure thing.

barboza is nice as a dog against jab magnet burgos but not soo confident rn. burgos does have bricks for hands and edson gets wobbly more often than not.

livebetting tony after a good first round from dariush would be clutch, beneil's cardio is no bueno and tony's pace will get to him if it gets past the first half. tony most likely breaks him in the third in that scenario, tko.

Grundy is good, i think he should wrestle lando en route to a dec. edmen vs hermansson i think jack should be able to endure a tough first rd and then drown edmen and sub him or gnp. Even tho edmen is very good on the feet and he could catch jack in the first, i think jack is durable af. Anyways, i def don't love these last four plays in comparisson to my main bet. if any of you sherbros think the ME can hit the cards, try and talk me out of it please lol.

edit: shit, card is getting weaker by the hour. give giga a call and feed him a jobber

This is one great vid, if you got time watch it. Din gives mike some insight and talks about some of the things i thought about the oliveira matchup. Hyped about this fight, gonna be wild

 

[Oblivian]

Maybe not a bad chin but dropped by Teymur plus the Felder fight on a run of opponents that hasn't been anything special. I can't recall Lee ever hurting anyone with his hands and Fergs shot. He loves charging in with zero headmovement chin high and is now going against one of the hardest hitting guys in the division.

I guess Teymur dropping him is technically correct, but it's not the way I'd phrase that. Oliveira was throwing a kick and off balance when the punch landed. He certainly does not look hurt when he hits the ground and definitely was not slowed down.