UFC 298, Feb 17, California

[mckinnley]

rob is finished. costa is way too big for him. rob wont be able to hurt costa

 

[mckinnley]

why is kopylov such a big dog ?

 

[Wood530]

why is kopylov such a big dog ?

Short notice fight
Sus cardio

 

[Stat_Collector]

Where are you guys standing on Neal vs Garry? I’m thinking going with Neal. He’s kind of a big underdog but I’m struggling to find a reason for that.

Neal has very good takedown defense and a basic but serviceable ground game, nothing flashy but it works and isn’t really a weak point in his game. His stand up is dangerous, he packs power in his punches and kicks like a mule (ask Mike Perry).

Neal’s nickname is hands (handz?) of steel, but he has a chin of steel, too. He went 3 rounds with Wonderboy and pushed Shavkat to the limit. It seems we will have a stand up war with Garry and Neal.

Garry’s stock is riding higher than ever before, but his win against Magny didn’t look too good to me. Magny looks like he’s fighting in slow motion these days. I have no idea how Magny managed to win his last fight against the canadian dude and I watched the fight. He looked awful to me. I was quite impressed with the W over Rodriguez (who also lost to Magny and scraped by Jingliang Li in a fight many thought was a robbery), so it’s not all hype.

Neal is more proven and battle tested, more experienced, in a great shape according to the pictures I’ve seen and has a chip on his shoulder as Garry has talked a lot of shit. When two strikers go at it I’ll happily side with the guy who has the chin, power and experience advantage. To me this seems like the fight where the veteran will put the newcomer in his place.

I might do a deep dive breakdown with these two. Lets see if I have the time

Gerry’s height is a cause for concern. Its not like Neal didn’t lose to Ponz, Gerry is far better and massive than him. Unless Gerry gets chinned, who knows. Seems like Neal is just a stepping stone.

 

[mkess101]

Gerry’s height is a cause for concern. Its not like Neal didn’t lose to Ponz, Gerry is far better and massive than him. Unless Gerry gets chinned, who knows. Seems like Neal is just a stepping stone.

Neal was impressive vs Rahkmonov imo. First guy I can remember that actually gave him problems, hit him and hurt him. No fear in the pocket. Fight prior to that, Neal made Luque look like he was stuck in mud.

That said, I think Garry presents some of the same issues Wonderboy did for Neal. Using kicks to control distance being the main one. Neal needs to get into boxing range and use his superior hand speed, if he fights at distance vs Garry he's likely cooked.

This 100% feels like a fight where Neal is very competitive, likely wins a round and maybe even stuns Garry at some point. But where Garry does enough to win 2 rounds and nobody much argues the decision. Neal bettors are like "I don't regret the play, line was too wide and Neal could've easily won that fight." And Garry bettors cash their tickets but don't feel amazing about the juice they laid...

Also...Neal didn't lose to Ponz. He beat him. Was a close fight for sure, but Neal won rds 1 and 3 imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Neal was impressive vs Rahkmonov imo. First guy I can remember that actually gave him problems, hit him and hurt him. No fear in the pocket. Fight prior to that, Neal made Luque look like he was stuck in mud.

That said, I think Garry presents some of the same issues Wonderboy did for Neal. Using kicks to control distance being the main one. Neal needs to get into boxing range and use his superior hand speed, if he fights at distance vs Garry he's likely cooked.

This 100% feels like a fight where Neal is very competitive, likely wins a round and maybe even stuns Garry at some point. But where Garry does enough to win 2 rounds and nobody much argues the decision. Neal bettors are like "I don't regret the play, line was too wide and Neal could've easily won that fight." And Garry bettors cash their tickets but don't feel amazing about the juice they laid...

Also...Neal didn't lose to Ponz. He beat him. Was a close fight for sure, but Neal won rds 1 and 3 imo.

I think there two common factors to why Neal looked good in those fights. Shakvat is really good at kicking, wrestling, bjj, but boxing is his weakest skill level, he leaves his chin up like a pole and doesn’t have any slips or counters with his hands.

Luque is not as explosive as Neal and his chin didn’t hold up, and Neal is just frankly the better striker.

Gerry really only has one concern against Neal, that is his chin. But his striking in terms of kicking and boxing are up to par, and Gerry is explosive too, with height and near similar reach. Add youth at 26 vs 33, he’s better in every fight. He can get dropped as we saw before, and he likely can lose rnd 1, but recovery seems good enough here. The height is also the cream on top , makes it harder to kick when you need to raise your leg a bit higher.

 

[sonhow]

Kopylov vs Hernandez is interesting. Kopylov does some serious bodywork-area where Hernandez has shown weakness (lol).
Then again Kop has been outwrestled by Duraev and beaten decisively by Karl Roberson off all people. But I like the way he has looked recently. I'd play him with these odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Lemos vs Dern feels like Jessica Andrade matchup with the same results.

Robeiro is my fav pick from odds perspective. ko prop too

 

[Spath]

Kopylov vs Hernandez is interesting. Kopylov does some serious bodywork-area where Hernandez has shown weakness (lol).
Then again Kop has been outwrestled by Duraev and beaten decisively by Karl Roberson off all people. But I like the way he has looked recently. I'd play him with these odds.

Kopylov has some slick striking! I don’t think Hernandez can go toe to toe with him, but he’s not going to, either. Hernandez is a smart fighter and he’s proven that time and time again as he’s gotten his 4 fight win streak. He mixes it up well and either takes the fights where his opponent is the weakest or makes them gas out.

I’m not sure if I find anything to bet on in this one, but it’ll be entertaining. Maybe prop bets like Hernandez sub (rd 2 or 3).

I think Cejudo made a mistake with coming back and fighting Merab. That guy will outwork anyone and everyone. The pace and pressure he puts on people is terrifying. He’s clearly put some time in and refined his striking as he’s more efficient with strikes, too. He’ll swarm Cejudo and either get the UD or late TKO.

 

[mkess101]

I think there two common factors to why Neal looked good in those fights. Shakvat is really good at kicking, wrestling, bjj, but boxing is his weakest skill level, he leaves his chin up like a pole and doesn’t have any slips or counters with his hands.

Luque is not as explosive as Neal and his chin didn’t hold up, and Neal is just frankly the better striker.

Gerry really only has one concern against Neal, that is his chin. But his striking in terms of kicking and boxing are up to par, and Gerry is explosive too, with height and near similar reach. Add youth at 26 vs 33, he’s better in every fight. He can get dropped as we saw before, and he likely can lose rnd 1, but recovery seems good enough here. The height is also the cream on top , makes it harder to kick when you need to raise your leg a bit higher.

To me seems like a fight where I pick Garry to win, but just pass at current odds.

 

[StewDogg11]

Kopylov has some slick striking! I don’t think Hernandez can go toe to toe with him, but he’s not going to, either. Hernandez is a smart fighter and he’s proven that time and time again as he’s gotten his 4 fight win streak. He mixes it up well and either takes the fights where his opponent is the weakest or makes them gas out.

I’m not sure if I find anything to bet on in this one, but it’ll be entertaining. Maybe prop bets like Hernandez sub (rd 2 or 3).

I think Cejudo made a mistake with coming back and fighting Merab. That guy will outwork anyone and everyone. The pace and pressure he puts on people is terrifying. He’s clearly put some time in and refined his striking as he’s more efficient with strikes, too. He’ll swarm Cejudo and either get the UD or late TKO.

You’ll get amazing odds on that considering Cejudo has been KO’d/TKO’d once in 19 fights and Merab has 3 KO’s/TKO’s in 20 fights.

 

[Spath]

You’ll get amazing odds on that considering Cejudo has been KO’d/TKO’d once in 19 fights and Merab has 3 KO’s/TKO’s in 20 fights.

Guess so. I think it’s a bit more likely than those numbers would suggest, considering their career trajectories. Cejudo only one fight in a few years, surgeries, age vs. Merab looking better than ever chasing the title and on his way up.

I get what you’re saying, though

 

[Psychojoe86]

I’ll be there live! Also gonna be betting and it’s a fairly tough event

-at first I was gonna go big on Volk, Garry, merab, and Whittaker but I’m concerned

-I still think merab and Whittaker are the confidence picks

-Volk is 35 now and statistically fighters fall off now

-Garry is chinny and Neal has sort of deceptive power

So far, merab and Whittaker are gonna deliver the best profit

 

[Psychojoe86]

Cejudo is a glorified flyweight. At bantamweight he’s achieved very little. Olympic level wrestling and great standup, yet we only saw a brief flash of it… 4 years ago.

He’s now older, and going up against merab, who recently outworked and exhausted legend Jose Aldo, a former featherweight star.

Cejudo’s best chance is a close decision going his way, due to his durability. But it’s absolutely not worth the cost to bet it

 

[Psychojoe86]

Gerry’s height is a cause for concern. Its not like Neal didn’t lose to Ponz, Gerry is far better and massive than him. Unless Gerry gets chinned, who knows. Seems like Neal is just a stepping stone.

Lots of Garry haters are calling for Neal by ko. But tbh it doesn’t seem like Neal gets knockouts very often. I feel it’s more his toughness and durability.

But Garry can still win by decision

 

[jnes]

Lots of Garry haters are calling for Neal by ko. But tbh it doesn’t seem like Neal gets knockouts very often. I feel it’s more his toughness and durability.

But Garry can still win by decision

4 KO's in 7 UFC wins, one of the decison wins he dropped the guy twice (Belal), put Shavkat the scariest guy in the division on skates. Finished iron chinned Perry in 1 before he regressed, obliterated Luque who's never been TKO'd.

He's the hardest hitting guy in the division.

 

[sonhow]

4 KO's in 7 UFC wins, one of the decison wins he dropped the guy twice (Belal), put Shavkat the scariest guy in the division on skates. Finished iron chinned Perry in 1 before he regressed, obliterated Luque who's never been TKO'd.

He's the hardest hitting guy in the division.

People like to forget it due to hindsight the devil but Neal koing Luque was huge. This is a guy who didnt get koed and yet Neal did it.

If Neal didnt have his lapses of incosistency I might pick him but he lost to Magny and nearly to Ponz. You dont know what you get from this guy. Its a fantastic fight and big test for both men.

 

[Psychojoe86]

4 KO's in 7 UFC wins, one of the decison wins he dropped the guy twice (Belal), put Shavkat the scariest guy in the division on skates. Finished iron chinned Perry in 1 before he regressed, obliterated Luque who's never been TKO'd.

He's the hardest hitting guy in the division.

Trust me, I would enjoy being live to witness Geoff Neal hand Garry his first pro loss in brutal fashion.

I’m just not totally convinced it’s gonna happen. I wanted to parlay merab, whittaker, Volk, and Garry. Now I’m concerned with Volk and Garry so I’m seeking additional perspective.

Tbh I’m growing on the prop bet of Neal by ko, especially after rewatching song hit Garry with that left hook lol

 

[Psychojoe86]

People like to forget it due to hindsight the devil but Neal koing Luque was huge. This is a guy who didnt get koed and yet Neal did it.

If Neal didnt have his lapses of incosistency I might pick him but he lost to Magny and nearly to Ponz. You dont know what you get from this guy. It’s a fantastic fight and big test for both men.

If anything, Neal should be hugely motivated to beat shit-talking Garry. It could be just the right motivation he needs

 

[Joonc]

To me seems like a fight where I pick Garry to win, but just pass at current odds.

Posting here to avoid clogging the bets thread but yeah I agree with you on what you said there. The matchup reminds me a lot of the Merab vs Yan fight, with Hernandez essentially being a middleweight Merab and Kopylov also being a slow starter who needs to make reads like Yan. Merab completely stifled all of Yan's offense and gave him zero space to make reads and get his game going despite most of the takedowns being stuffed, and I can absolutely see that repeating itself again here. The caveats for me in this matchup however, are Fluffy's history of weakness to body shots which are a specialty of Kopylov(who I think is also a much better finisher than Yan), and the line being what it is with Fluffy being a very sizable favorite at -255 on Betonline. I see this fight being way too volatile to pay that price, especially for playing 7 units like that guy in the bets thread posted.