Kind of expected more from Emmers based on all the love he's getting this week, but I was pretty underwhelmed.
Well put together, I think he's a finished product, like we've seen the best Emmers already, not that he's declining but I don't think he's going to be adding much new to his game. Competent all rounder, and physically has a great build and proportions for the weight class, I think the height, reach and just over all physicallity of Emmers do give him a bit of an edge off the bat.
Sabatini is too small for feather weight in my opinion, and he lacks some physical strength - Yeah he can pick guys up and slam them to the mat here and there, but when he's in clinch positions or grabs bodylocks he struggles to move his opponent, or he will get in deep on the hips against the cage and just doesn't have the horse power to complete the takedown.
I honestly see more long term upside in Sabatini. Emmers looks like he should be an amazing prospect, and just falls a little flat for me, doing everything right but not actually doing much of it. Moves well, controls distance well, just generally slick standing, but he's not much of a power threat and he's not throwing much in combination. A few darting blitzes really.
I think Sabatini has a great base to build on, but the striking does not come naturally to him. He switches stance at times but doesn't look comfortable either way, and leaves his leg out there to be kicked. At times he shows some amazing speed though, like throwing a left high kick and instantly ducking in on the hips for a double off of it, lightning quick. Packs a punch, but it's going to be very difficult for him to find a way inside here.
I think he likely spends 3 rounds frustrated and stuck on the outside. He could have some success catching kicks or if he feels he can take the damage just repeatedly wade in and grab a body lock or whatever is avaliable. I can see a path where Sabatini starts to wear down and swamp Emmers, but he has to have a strategy in place to get past the reach difference and shut down some of the movement of Emmers.
Unless Sabatini has either made a leap or has the perfect gameplan here he's in for a tough and annoying night I feel. Current line is probably about accurate, I suspect Emmers takes more steam pre fight and gets close to touching -200, if Emmers does hit -200 or deeper I think the value moves to Sabatini.
Overs hit, GTD 85% hits, Sabatini round 3/decision probably holds some value too - If you think he has the gameplan. Live entry on Sabatini will be there, and is probably the best option if you like him. Emmers decision is most likely out come, I think him finishing is him catching Sabatini with a head kick or something along those lines.