UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera

[mkess101]

lets get into it, pay attention @mkess101 :

Taira/Candelario: Hard to get a read on Taira, I can only find 4 fights and he has faced zero adversity. I won't pretend like I know all the opponents on his record but Candelario should be by far his toughest test. He is also making his debut and fighting in the USA for the first time. Candelario has had a weakness to being taken down and put in bad positions but he has never been subbed and is a brown belt. The opponents taking him down are all BJJ black belts and have come in with a graple-heavy gameplan. Taira could sub him if he is a better jits fighter than those opponents but again who knows. Candelario is battle-tested, has great boxing and wrestling, and is the same size if not bigger. I don't like how he slows down, but in the one DEC win I have watched Taira didn't push a pace at all on the feet and got a few of his takedowns stuffed against a tiny Asian guy. Big dog or pass for me but probably should be a pass with the unknowns.

Yohan/Green: Personally think the money coming in on Green is crazy. I assume its lazy capping and people thinking Yohan is a gasser, Green isn't and that's enough to beat him. Yohan has two decision wins where he has clearly won round 3 in both with wrestling. Yes, he is huffing and puffing and it's bad optics but he pushes through. He has an explosive double and lands high amplitude takedowns then jumps straight onto the back or mount. Green has negative takedown defense. He is borderline pulling guard, even on the regionals bums are stuffing his takedowns and getting on top into mount and dominant positions. He is comfortable on his back but he isn't too dangerous and he gives up a lot of minutes. Burlinson from contender is a lot more active and dangerous with his jits and Yohan did great passing to side control when he threatened the guilly which shows me he is positionally aware. Gabe spent all of round 3 on his back against Rowe who was very compromised by the end of that fight. Honestly, if Rowe didn't fall over 5 times from a leg kick Green doesn't win that fight 29-28. His wrestling offense is also not good, he mostly just cage pushes. Green is a pressure brawler, has good cardio and good volume, but brawling with Yohan who hits like an absolute truck is not the right move. If Yohan wants to break up the pressure I don't see him struggling for takedowns. In the worst case, I would line this at pick-em, with Yohan winning early, and Gabe taking over late but my personal lean is that Yohan should be the slight fav. All the finishing upside and wrestling advantage.

De Silva/ Figgy: I wanted to hit De Silva at pickem here due to Figgy being so bad and Sila having all the athletism and finishing upside. He is giving me flakey vibes though if he doesn't finish I don't know if he will fall apart every single time. His other loss is a leg injury, thats big glass cannon vibes. Easy pass for me although the U1.5 is 3.00 which is interesting for a guy that never went over win or lose.

Elkins/Connelly: Good matchup for Elkins, Connelly is almost the exact replica of his style but worse. He is unathletic and usually can't get his grappling going until his opponents get tired. Is he going to out grapple Elkins, I don't see it. Someone like Minner is a way tougher opponent until he starts to fall apart. Connelly has no power and is only 1 year younger. Personally, I think Cub does the exact same thing to Connelly if they ever fight. There is something stopping me from playing Elkins, I know he is washed to bits but I also don't think Connelly can take advantage. Passing for now I guess.

Vera/Font: Good fight to end the night. Both are tough fighters with good cardio and output. I have no doubt Vera is going to be giving up the first round, he picks up the pressure as he goes but in the first, he gives space and usually loses. If he gives Font space no doubt Font will land his jabs and kicks to steal it. He might even get the second, I can see this going down to the third round, with Vera taking over in the 4th and 5th. I can maybe see Vera finishing Font, but I think 10-8s could be more likely since he is more an attrition finisher rather than a 1 punch guy. As much as Font gives me chinny vibes, he is tough and has a great gas tank. Vera doesn't really have a coherent game plan when he fights, he looks to force mistakes by coming forward, doesn't box much, and does most of his work in the clinch with knees and elbows. His wrestling isn't the best but he drags fighters down from the clinch. He won round 2 over Aldo with cage pushing and clinch strikes alone. I think Fonts wrestling is underrated, he takes a lot of fighters down including Simon, but his TDD is a bit average. He also doesn't check kicks and is heavy on his lead, being predominantly a boxer. I think Font can get takedowns like Frankie but I don't think he can control Vera as easily. I think this fight has so many angles to break down, especially in the 5 round aspect. I think Font starts off great, and Vera closes the gap the longer it goes. To beat Vera you have to outpoint him to a dec without slowing down or falling apart because he is probably the most durable guy in the UFC and he won't stop coming forward. Pick-em is probably my line here, so I would side with the slight dog. Live bet you might get better odds on Vera, and Font DEC is the only way I would play him.

Great stuff!

 

[mkess101]

but this can be deceptive for two reasons to use the sherman fight as a measurement.

1.Sherman sucks.

2. Andrei doesn’t use submissions anymore. He just strikes and keeps it on the feet. Jake had that submission offense, andrei didn’t. but andrei has solid sub defense that Sherman doesn’t have . So the winning skillset for this fight is going to be on the feet. We have to use a fight that references their striking skill set. while you can say jake landed more against Felipe. a mass majority where leg kicks. i think jake can land those but those dont have the same scoring as head strikes. i think arlovski lands much cleaner shots and will win at the end. this is proven in the jared/andrei fight and the Felipe/ Jake fight. Leg kicks only usually get wins in 1:3 judges. Jake will need at least two judges that award leg kicks more than clean head strikes. and historically that rarely happens.

Sherman sucks, and was still very competitive with AA standing. And while Collier did sub him, he lit Chase up standing first.

 

[sonhow]

Im probably in minority but I thought Andrei looked great vs Felipe before gassing. He tends to build lead vs active fat guys then survives the end to snatch a dec. On my sites these guys are at basically even odds ( Andrei a tiny favorite but this doesnt matter to me). The deciding factor for me to take Andrei here is just the fact that he hasnt lost to a fighter this level yet. If he loses then it all changes imo.

 

[Danis_champ]

Why is money coming in on Mike Breeden?

He is not UFC caliber and Levy is promising. What am I missing here?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Why is money coming in on Mike Breeden?

He is not UFC caliber and Levy is promising. What am I missing here?

Both guys are dogshit, I'd just bet whoever became anything more than a 3.0 dog here if it happens.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm playing the over and might hit the GTD line. Don't forget Candelario surviving and outlasting Candido, he's a very game opponent, don't see him getting finished.

I'm confident in Taira first round RNC, but I am somewhat of a Taira fanboy.

 

[DonQ94]

I'm confident in Taira first round RNC, but I am somewhat of a Taira fanboy.

Taira looks decent, but against incredibly shitty competition. Not sure if his physicality will match up either. Seems like a decent spot to go for the dog and let Taira prove his price tag.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Taira looks decent, but against incredibly shitty competition. Not sure if his physicality will match up either. Seems like a decent spot to go for the dog and let Taira prove his price tag.

I don't know how physical I think Candelario is, I thought he was pretty physically even with Altamirano who I've always thought of as weak (Altamirano got utterly manhandled by Jarred Brooks). I also think Fukuda is probably as good as anyone Candelario has fought.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Taira looks decent, but against incredibly shitty competition. Not sure if his physicality will match up either. Seems like a decent spot to go for the dog and let Taira prove his price tag.

The biggest red flag for Carlos is those massive gaps from 2017 to 2021 , and he fought a 5-4 fighter he couldn't put away. At least Taira is putting guys away who have 40-60 fights.

This fight reminds me of Durden vs Mokaev , a young prospect(early 20s) vs a jobber(30s) . No offense to him but Carlos isn't about that life. On tape Taira moves better, controls his range a lot better and has solid kick boxing foundation. Carlos looks like a plot forward sub par boxer. I hope fighters don't visit this forum, but i have to be blunt here and call it like i see it. I think Carlos shoots a takedown and gets himself choked out or reversed and manhandled to a tko stoppage. I would pick Taira to beat Victor Altamirano too. He is going to run through the lower ranks straight to top 15 in the next two years.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Sherman sucks, and was still very competitive with AA standing. And while Collier did sub him, he lit Chase up standing first.

he didn't though, he actually got a little wobbled by Sherman. He landed his own strikes but no way can you call that 'lit up' he ate some hard shots and opted to catch his leg and tap him. i think he fought smart but no way would he have won that striking war. maybe the fight would have been close, but he wasn't by no means doing far better on the feet than Andrei. there is also no way his gas tank beats Andrei. but if you feel its a good spot hey i could be wrong, i remain that jake needs a crooked decision to win it. a type of decision where two judges award volume over damage and clean head blows.

 

[Thesnake101]

View attachment 919914


The biggest red flag for Carlos is those massive gaps from 2017 to 2021 , and he fought a 5-4 fighter he couldn't put away. At least Taira is putting guys away who have 40-60 fights.

This fight reminds me of Durden vs Mokaev , a young prospect(early 20s) vs a jobber(30s) . No offense to him but Carlos isn't about that life. On tape Taira moves better, controls his range a lot better and has solid kick boxing foundation. Carlos looks like a plot forward sub par boxer. I hope fighters don't visit this forum, but i have to be blunt here and call it like i see it. I think Carlos shoots a takedown and gets himself choked out or reversed and manhandled to a tko stoppage. I would pick Taira to beat Victor Altamirano too. He is going to run through the lower ranks straight to top 15 in the next two years.

You don't think the Candido fight might mean Candelario will be good enough at keeping himself out of danger on the mat? I really think the over at -110 is pretty damn good value here. A flyweight fight going 2 and a half rounds? That's usually a safe bet.

 

[mkess101]

he didn't though, he actually got a little wobbled by Sherman. He landed his own strikes but no way can you call that 'lit up' he ate some hard shots and opted to catch his leg and tap him. i think he fought smart but no way would he have won that striking war. maybe the fight would have been close, but he wasn't by no means doing far better on the feet than Andrei. there is also no way his gas tank beats Andrei. but if you feel its a good spot hey i could be wrong, i remain that jake needs a crooked decision to win it. a type of decision where two judges award volume over damage and clean head blows.

I'll rewatch but I remember Jake landing the better shots for sure. And Jake eating Chase's shots but hurting Chase with his own.

I honestly think Jake would school Vanderaa standing and AA should maybe have lost to him in his last fight. Now I also think maybe Andre is still capable of a better performance than that too so in no way do I see Jake as a lock or anything. I just slightly favor him so at dog odds it's an easy bet for me.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You don't think the Candido fight might mean Candelario will be good enough at keeping himself out of danger on the mat? I really think the over at -110 is pretty damn good value here. A flyweight fight going 2 and a half rounds? That's usually a safe bet.

no. i think he will get choked . the skill gap is very wide here. i would not trust him to not get beat in the first round.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'll rewatch but I remember Jake landing the better shots for sure. And Jake eating Chase's shots but hurting Chase with his own.

I honestly think Jake would school Vanderaa standing and AA should maybe have lost to him in his last fight. Now I also think maybe Andre is still capable of a better performance than that too so in no way do I see Jake as a lock or anything. I just slightly favor him so at dog odds it's an easy bet for me.

If you feel Jared could have won than I can see why you think Jake can win, because Jake does the same amount of leg strikes, its going to be mirroring performances. But we've seen time and time again that Judges don't usually favor volume over clean head strikes.

Few examples of this:
Boser/Arlovski
Jared/Arlovski
Every Bobby Green fight where lost via split decision
Jojo / Murphy
Jake/Felipe
The judge that gave Jared the w was Doug Crosby 28 - 29. You'd need him and another judge like that to score it for Jake. From a decision stand point, andrei is always the favorite. I feel like Jake needs a finish, if he can choke Andrei out than maybe , but i think Andrei is decent enough to stay on his feet and not get tapped like the tom fight.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Mazany-165EZ
Breeden/Levy-OV 2.5-180 EZ
laainese/Green-UN 1.5 +120 EZ
Lacredo/Fig-UN 2.5-110 EZ
Meershardt+145

what I like so far

 

[Bakayoko]

Yeah,I'm torn too on the little japanese guy.He looks good on tape,but that competition there...Japan hasn't had a top 15 fighter in how much now?Must have been years...Plus it's a debut,clear pass.
Jotko-GM3-I think Jotko will win,but the ML price is about right.He faced Cirkunov with somewhat similiar style and barely menaged to get a razor thin split decision.Since he ain't a power puncher and the odds for his DEC wins are solid I'll rather take that.
I like Fili as a favorite,he's a good fighter,gave hell to Mitchell and was clearly winning against Pineda.His oponnent is tough but I feel Fili is better everywhere.
Like Vera as a dog,specially when he was 2,25.He ain't gonna get knocked out I guess so Font DEC should be a good hedge.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

You don't think the Candido fight might mean Candelario will be good enough at keeping himself out of danger on the mat? I really think the over at -110 is pretty damn good value here. A flyweight fight going 2 and a half rounds? That's usually a safe bet.

Taira has a really snappy, explosive, fast grappling style that pushes for finishes. He does sexy shit like this to people.

 

[rev0lver]

Yohan/Green: Personally think the money coming in on Green is crazy. I assume its lazy capping and people thinking Yohan is a gasser, Green isn't and that's enough to beat him. Yohan has two decision wins where he has clearly won round 3 in both with wrestling. Yes, he is huffing and puffing and it's bad optics but he pushes through. He has an explosive double and lands high amplitude takedowns then jumps straight onto the back or mount. Green has negative takedown defense. He is borderline pulling guard, even on the regionals bums are stuffing his takedowns and getting on top into mount and dominant positions. He is comfortable on his back but he isn't too dangerous and he gives up a lot of minutes. Burlinson from contender is a lot more active and dangerous with his jits and Yohan did great passing to side control when he threatened the guilly which shows me he is positionally aware. Gabe spent all of round 3 on his back against Rowe who was very compromised by the end of that fight. Honestly, if Rowe didn't fall over 5 times from a leg kick Green doesn't win that fight 29-28. His wrestling offense is also not good, he mostly just cage pushes. Green is a pressure brawler, has good cardio and good volume, but brawling with Yohan who hits like an absolute truck is not the right move. If Yohan wants to break up the pressure I don't see him struggling for takedowns. In the worst case, I would line this at pick-em, with Yohan winning early, and Gabe taking over late but my personal lean is that Yohan should be the slight fav. All the finishing upside and wrestling advantage.

Definitely agree with this. I remember being really confident on Burlinson in the DWCS fight, thought he was about to start a big career in the UFC, and Yohan just floored him. He might not be the most clean and technical guy but he's well-rounded and powerful as hell. Green was able to hang in there against D Rod, but he's been KO'd before. Would not feel any confidence betting Green and love Yohan as a dog or even.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

So after some dissenting opinions from guys I respect I went back and looked at some of colliers fights at heavyweight

against Sherman he was very aggressive, recklessly crashing distance to put the pressure on Sherman. He ended up catching a kick early to score his second takedown since 2014 and that was the fight

against Felipe it was much more telling. collier had a good first round with high output, putting Felipe on his back foot for most of the round. After that collier visibly slowed, losing his mouth guard twice, panic wrestling, getting hurt from a jab to the eye and checking the clock multiple times in rd 3. collier was still throwing but had no steam on anything and his defense and body language were lacking. He was the one getting pressed by Felipe. I thought Felipe clearly won rounds 2 and 3.

I had bet on collier prefight. I also bet collier vs gian Villante.

Collier has very little power aside from his left hook and a lunging lead left hook that he rarely throws. He doesn’t look to wrestle at all. The takedown against Sherman was opportunistic and the single shot against Felipe was because he was getting tagged.

I have question marks about colliers chin at heavyweight. Aspinall got him out of there quick with the third set of one twos he landed and he landed those easily repeatedly in the first 40 seconds of the fight, making quick work of collier

that brings us to Andre arlovski, a bettors moneytrain of the last several years.

The only thing that has really declined with him is his cardio. He seams to fade earlier and earlier in these last few fights but he still has found a way to win. He still has power but he doesn’t chase finishes and is conservative with his combinations. This is probably due to him knowing his cardio isn’t there these days.

he is the better more technical striker and was able to deal with another fast guy in boser who utilizes movement and sprinkles in kicks similar to collier.

I think aa is going to land the flashier punches which should overcome the volume of collier and he should be able to out strike him as long as his cardio holds up.

I think aa will win the first round but anything after that is a crap shoot with the way his cardio has been. Even still, he finds ways to win fights with his veteranship and is able to fight through fatigue.

I like this fight to go the distance more than I would like to bet on either guy. If you want to fade aa’s cardio for plus money, yea I can see it. As long as arlovskis cardio holds up I don’t see him having problems with colliers style. Colliers Dec line is the value bet. I have a hard time seeing him finishing many guys at heavy

A little tidbit about collier: He got popped for a banned diuretic and was rehabbing an injury when he got the call from the ufc saying he had to fight or he’d be cut. That’s how he found himself at heavyweight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah,I'm torn too on the little japanese guy.He looks good on tape,but that competition there...Japan hasn't had a top 15 fighter in how much now?Must have been years...Plus it's a debut,clear pass.
Jotko-GM3-I think Jotko will win,but the ML price is about right.He faced Cirkunov with somewhat similiar style and barely menaged to get a razor thin split decision.Since he ain't a power puncher and the odds for his DEC wins are solid I'll rather take that.
I like Fili as a favorite,he's a good fighter,gave hell to Mitchell and was clearly winning against Pineda.His oponnent is tough but I feel Fili is better everywhere.
Like Vera as a dog,specially when he was 2,25.He ain't gonna get knocked out I guess so Font DEC should be a good hedge.

Because one fc absorbs a lot of good talent. Japan and mma is huge there, not all japanese fighters want to go to america. Japanese people in general travel less than most other nationalities there are a lot of missed japanese talents that would have made it to ufc gold. To bring it further, mighty mouse was traded to one fc because its parallel to ufc in japan.

I think the japanese circuit is more competitive than the north east circuit that carlos competed in . they have a wrestling culture over there and they invented jiujitsu and judo. lots of black belt grapplers there and good freestyle catch wrestling. I think Taira fought better competition than carlos. I think if you took the last three opponents that Taira faced and matched them against Carlos' opponents they all three beat his whole resume. They three have a combine record of 58-25 vs 12-6 for carlos, and im only including Taira's last three opponents. The 2017-2021 gap should already be a tale tell sign that carlos is a part timer, this is a trait of a prospect fighting a stepping stone failed contender series contestant, i don't see the dog or pass that everyone is saying.


He's such a cool guy