2c lets go:
Leavitt/ Sayles: Tough fight. Thought I was going to hit Leavitt here, Sayles coming off 2 knee surgeries and looking fat as fuck on Instagram. Moving up in weight as well. Might mean nothing as he was young but hard to tell. In one fight he has great cardio and output and in another, he is gassed and almost gets subbed by Kyle Nelson. Leavitt shoots asap, no time wasted. He wants to grapple and he does good once it's in his world. He might look good value here if he instantly gets Sayles down and gasses him through grappling. That Pulles fight is not a good look though, every fight that has extended Leavitt has looked a bit average. I will wait till weigh-ins, too many questions.
Eubanks/Gatto: One of two fights I taped twice thanks to different opinions with old mate Sads. Gatto is young and improving. The physique deffs looks like someone who was busted by USADA. Her standup looks improved, has a nice 1-2. She is still submission over position, ended up giving up positions to Leonardo of all people. If Eubanks can have another solid cut, she has a ton of advantages at 125. I think Eubanks wins round 1 at a veryyyy high clip. She gets a takedown and solid control in most her fights, don't see it much differently here. Gatto will shoot up for subs off her back and Eubanks will pass, it's her go-to move. Depending on if Gatto chooses to grapple or not, she could look value in rounds 2 and 3. If Eubanks chooses to wrestle and Gatto plays a game off her back, could be an easy win for Eubanks even if she slows down. Passing at these odds, potentially live betting Gatto after the second if its 1-1 and Eubanks has slowed.
Elkins/Swanson: Good matchup in my opinion for Cub. I see him matadoring Elkins for three rounds. Cub is good at sticking and moving and disengaging from any grappling exchanges if he comes in with that game plan. Elkins is so stiff and hittable. He keeps coming forward but his entries are very telegraphed and slow. If you can avoid grappling with him, he becomes a walking punching bag. Hall was wabbling him all over the place, Nate bloodied him up after getting taken down in the first. Garagorri was 1-1 going into the third, and then got subbed in the third after hurting Elkin and rushing in with a knee. These days Elkins pretty much breaks flakes or fighters not UFC lvl, Cub has a bit more juice in the tank in my opinion. Its a shame about the odds, maybe a parley piece or Cub by DEC.
Gamrot/Ferreira: The other fight I taped twice. Gamrot is very well-rounded, I like his style. Good boxing, can fight from both stances, nice wrestling, jits, and scrambles. He has great cardio, can wrestle for 5 if need be. He dives on ankles from far out and ankle picks fighters. If it doesn't work he is great at getting on top. His control isn't the best, and usually, he goes for takedowns to seal rounds or break up the rhythm. Ferreira is impossible to control early, I think we are in for a wild fight in the begging. It's hard to get a read here as I believe Ferreira is Gamrot's toughest opponent yet. He could look good but nobody dominates Ferreira, the guy is aggressive, an amazing scrambler, and has power. If it goes to a DEC then I think it will be close, but I would rather pass and watch it play out, potentially live bet.
Assuncao/Simon: Big step up for Simon and a step down for Assuncao. If Assuncao wasn't pushing 40, he could have been insane value. This fight could still be very close, but I feel like Simon could win it on sheer aggression and output alone. Assuncao's cardio and durability seem to be depleted as well, although it's hard to tell when he is facing very high competition other than Cody. His last wins were Font and Lopez and he absolutely styled on them. I am passing here, don't want to play Assuncao and then watch Simon
grind out a decision against the cage for 3 rounds.
Lemos/Hill: Talk about disrespect when it comes to the odds lol. If Lemos doesn't KO Hill in the first, which nobody has done yet, I think we are in for a 3 round DEC. Lemos's last 3 round DEC was Inoue. She won a clear 30-27 but had to pace herself, her cardio is not amazing by any means. She would rest against the cage for the majority of the round and then steal the round with some heavy shots. I rate Hill much higher than someone like Inoue. Hill has been clinching and grappling a lot lately as well, but I think she will be better suited pressuring and trying to out-volume Lemos if she slows down late. I am passing on the pre bet, as Lemos is so dangerous early and there is a first for everything, but I will be keeping an eye out on the live bet.
WB/Belal: Bit of an overreaction on the Burns fight in my opinion. WB is still as tough as ever to figure out, Belal is like a discount Burns with worse wrestling, power, jits, and athletism. He does have a better chin but he has been hurt a shit ton by Neal, Edwards, Good and even Lima busted up his calf. Belal is a DEC machine so he essentially has to outpoint and out grind Wonderboy for three rounds. Tough ask in my opinion, even if WB is a bit low volume when fighting grapplers. That Burns fight was 1-1 going into the third and WB gave it up when he hurt Burns and rushed into a takedown. Again, shame about the odds, maybe WB by DEC will be decent.
