UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Dos Anjos

[xhaydenx]

@xhaydenx makes most of his profits (?) with WMMA betting, believe it or not, so I think he’d have an idea about this fight too.

I’m not touching that one, but...

Yo, I need to watch some more of Granger, but I like Yoder as a decent underdog. She isn't amazing or anything, but her wrestling, grit and pace might be enough in this one. She looked good when she turned it on against Souza late in her last fight.

I still don't know if I want to bet on this one though. Lots of first round subs by Granger, and she might just snap up another. I'm a bit hesitant to even bet the fight goes the distance or even 2nd round because of this.

6 out of 8 of Granger's fights not going past the first round makes me wonder what her cardio is like. She has only gone 3 rounds once.

Another thing to look at: Yoder didn't get subbed by Dern, Markos or Souza, and I think that has to count for something.

 

[Spath]

Another thing to look at: Yoder didn't get subbed by Dern, Markos or Souza, and I think that has to count for something.

For sure that counts. Dern is very, very good on the ground and goes for subs instead of just holding position and pitter pattering for points.

If I had to bet on this fight it’d be on Yoder as well, but I’ll pass.

I think a parlay of Khaos vs Al Hassan doesn’t go to 3rd round + Marquez vs Safarov doesn’t go to a decision would be a decent bet. Both couples come to swang and bang.

 

[longway]

Granger sucks, Yoder can win this using her wrestling

Ive put 0.5u on Yoder, happy to get plus odds on her, but iirc she always seems to jump on her opponent's back and then promptly fall off. Its happened in 2 of her fights at least.

 

[2020Tracked]

I personally can't see why people are taking Strickland here, he works the jab well, and he's generally pretty clean and tight with his boxing but I don't think he's a true middle weight. He's more of an inbetweener. Allen should have a physical advantage, more power, heavier on top. Allen pressured right off the bat, I think he closes the distance early, pressures to the cage, gets the clinch or body lock positions and works from there. Allen hurts and cuts him opponents in almost every fight, he does damage when he gets position. Is Strickland going to be able to keep him at bay and back him off with just his jab and movement for three rounds?

 

[Broe.]

I personally can't see why people are taking Strickland here, he works the jab well, and he's generally pretty clean and tight with his boxing but I don't think he's a true middle weight. He's more of an inbetweener. Allen should have a physical advantage, more power, heavier on top. Allen pressured right off the bat, I think he closes the distance early, pressures to the cage, gets the clinch or body lock positions and works from there. Allen hurts and cuts him opponents in almost every fight, he does damage when he gets position. Is Strickland going to be able to keep him at bay and back him off with just his jab and movement for three rounds?

I think he might. This is actually what Strickland is good at. Brendan Allen also hasn't taken down any good wrestlers yet. I am curious to see what happens but would not be at all surprised if Strickland wins a comfortable 30-27 decision.

 

[piglord]

I personally can't see why people are taking Strickland here, he works the jab well, and he's generally pretty clean and tight with his boxing but I don't think he's a true middle weight. He's more of an inbetweener. Allen should have a physical advantage, more power, heavier on top. Allen pressured right off the bat, I think he closes the distance early, pressures to the cage, gets the clinch or body lock positions and works from there. Allen hurts and cuts him opponents in almost every fight, he does damage when he gets position. Is Strickland going to be able to keep him at bay and back him off with just his jab and movement for three rounds?

strickland walks around 212, that is pretty solid for a middleweight. he said he was killing himself to make welterweight and the entire thing was a bad idea.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

I think he might. This is actually what Strickland is good at. Brendan Allen also hasn't taken down any good wrestlers yet. I am curious to see what happens but would not be at all surprised if Strickland wins a comfortable 30-27 decision.

I’m genuinely curious as to what Strickland has done at MW to make you so confident he will beat Allen? Strickland has fought once at MW against a low level fighter in Marshmam after a 2 year layoff. He couldn’t even finish him.

Allen has finished 3 of his last 4 fights. Sub’d Jefferies on contender series, sub’d Holland (in his UFC debut), tko win over Breese in his second Ufc fight, and a hard fought decision win over a legit new contender in Kyle Daukus who was undefeated before facing Allen.

I just don’t see how a lifelong WW who moved up to MW after a 2 year layoff, gets a win over Jack Marshman, and now 2 weeks later will be able to beat a killer in Allen. I don’t see it.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I’m genuinely curious as to what Strickland has done at MW to make you so confident he will beat Allen? Strickland has fought once at MW against a low level fighter in Marshmam after a 2 year layoff. He couldn’t even finish him.

Allen has finished 3 of his last 4 fights. Sub’d Jefferies on contender series, sub’d Holland (in his UFC debut), tko win over Breese in his second Ufc fight, and a hard fought decision win over a legit new contender in Kyle Daukus who was undefeated before facing Allen.

I just don’t see how a lifelong WW who moved up to MW after a 2 year layoff, gets a win over Jack Marshman, and now 2 weeks later will be able to beat a killer in Allen. I don’t see it.

I like Allen but I think you’re overrating him.

wasn’t he in trouble in all of his ufc fights?

 

[Broe.]

I’m genuinely curious as to what Strickland has done at MW to make you so confident he will beat Allen? Strickland has fought once at MW against a low level fighter in Marshmam after a 2 year layoff. He couldn’t even finish him.

Allen has finished 3 of his last 4 fights. Sub’d Jefferies on contender series, sub’d Holland (in his UFC debut), tko win over Breese in his second Ufc fight, and a hard fought decision win over a legit new contender in Kyle Daukus who was undefeated before facing Allen.

I just don’t see how a lifelong WW who moved up to MW after a 2 year layoff, gets a win over Jack Marshman, and now 2 weeks later will be able to beat a killer in Allen. I don’t see it.

I just look at strickland's frame and height and I don't see a big size difference, we will see how it plays out I guess.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I am liking Smolka i think i will probably take his ITD a bit later today i wait before weigh ins.
For Women's MMA anyone on Yoder?

 

[Broe.]

I am liking Smolka i think i will probably take his ITD a bit later today i wait before weigh ins.
For Women's MMA anyone on Yoder?

smolka missed wieght by 3 lbs

 

[Card]

Abdul Razak Alhassan (172.5)* vs. Khaos Williams (170)
Eryk Anders (187.5)** vs. Antonio Arroyo (185.5)
Louis Smolka (139)*** vs. Jose Quinonez (135)

*Alhassan missed the welterweight limit and will be fined 20 percent of his purse.
**Anders missed the middleweight limit and will be fined 20 percent of his purse.
***Smolka missed the bantamweight limit and will be fined 20 percent of his purse.

 

[rev0lver]

I think Smolka is a really risky bet here. He's looked completely lost in nearly all his UFC fights since he fought Moreno. Quinonez isn't great, but he has decent wrestling and has only really lost to prospects.

 

[avid1]

That's a lot of fighters missing weight. Smolka 4 lbs at that weight class is outrageous. Can't believe he's only punished with 20% purse. I'd love to see a rapid increase of purse-cut for every pound based on weight class.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

I like Allen but I think you’re overrating him.

wasn’t he in trouble in all of his ufc fights?

Eh’, I don’t think so. How many other fighters go 4-0 in their UFC debut?

I think the only fight I felt nervous in was his last one against Daukaus who I’ve mentioned is a LEGIT grappler.

 

[avid1]

I think Smolka is a really risky bet here. He's looked completely lost in nearly all his UFC fights since he fought Moreno. Quinonez isn't great, but he has decent wrestling and has only really lost to prospects.

I'm an idiot on this topic so please educate me. What is the reasoning behind betting against people missing weight? Because they had a bad weight-cut and being totally drained or is there something else to it.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

I'm an idiot on this topic so please educate me. What is the reasoning behind betting against people missing weight? Because they had a bad weight-cut and being totally drained or is there something else to it.

there’s nothing to it. If you look at fighters missing weight (last 100 fighters) there isn’t any noticeable trends worth betting on. Look for other advantages because this ain’t one. Unless the fighter looks like death on the scale, pay no mind.

Also, I’m on Khaos now. Hassan missing weight makes me think he had a rough cut and will possibly have a weakened chin. Chaos bangs. I’ll take the under rounds and the Dog in this situation.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Julian Marquez vs. Saparbeg Safarov is off.

 

[InTheCut]

there’s nothing to it. If you look at fighters missing weight (last 100 fighters) there isn’t any noticeable trends worth betting on. Look for other advantages because this ain’t one. Unless the fighter looks like death on the scale, pay no mind.

Also, I’m on Khaos now. Hassan missing weight makes me think he had a rough cut and will possibly have a weakened chin. Chaos bangs. I’ll take the under rounds and the Dog in this situation.

Could be intentional as well, seeing how he gasses after going crazy in R1

 

[rev0lver]

I'm an idiot on this topic so please educate me. What is the reasoning behind betting against people missing weight? Because they had a bad weight-cut and being totally drained or is there something else to it.

there’s nothing to it. If you look at fighters missing weight (last 100 fighters) there isn’t any noticeable trends worth betting on. Look for other advantages because this ain’t one. Unless the fighter looks like death on the scale, pay no mind.

^ this is true. But it can sometimes come down to individual circumstances. Sometimes them missing weight is a mentality problem and they genuinely don't care that much. Sometimes they had a fine camp, just screwed up their cut a little bit and didn't want to torture themselves so they can be healthy on fight day. Sometimes they're actually unhealthy. Impossible to know without more info.

I'm not betting against Smolka because he missed weight (although 139 says something could be going on), it's just hard to trust him against anyone halfway decent. Not going huge on Quinonez, just wouldn't lay money on Smolka as a favorite.