[Gillian Roberson -205] vs Botelho +167
Roberson is a grappler first and foremost but not doggedly so. She's willing to stand and fight for uncomfortably long stretches, which really does her no favors. I say this because she strikes as though she's sparring or cardio kickboxing. Good volume and loose on her feet but absolutely nothing has power or commitment. It all comes out listless and lazy. This carries over into her defense which is defense in name only. Keeping her hands high but without the necessary movement, parries or tension in her hands to actually block anything. This opens her up to get bopped in the noodle quite a bit. If she would genuinely put in effort to striking, she could be solid as she already has the volume and variety, throwing at all levels currently, to make it work. Like I said in the beginning though, she really shines as a grappler. Smooth, fast, well timed takedowns of all types. Bodylock, single, double, trips, she can cut the corner and drive or dump effectively. Once she's on top she's got a developed, very aggressive deep half game built on immobilizing while she racks up control time and strikes, shifting between the deep half and side control as the opponent tries to keep up.
Everything about Botelho reeks of bravado and athletic gifts. She feints like your big brother trying to psyche you out and her slips are hands down body pulls that take her completely off platform. You can see it heavily in her clinch technique where she's just pressing with her monster strength and not fighting for a leverage position or concerned with top side grappling. This lead to her getting reversed quite a bit against Lauren Mueller who isn't the most proficient in her own right. I will give her credit for her power though, she's definitely got some heat, especially on her kicks but they don't come with enough volume or efficiency to be a big enough threat at that weight class. Her movement is plodding and slow and very on theme for the brutish game she's built. Even her takedowns are poor entry driving affairs leveraging her simply being stronger and more aggressive than the target. Against good competition she's going to need to rely on winning the first two rounds or getting finishes because she doesn't have the cardio if someone is making her work for 3 rounds.
Din Thomas gameplanning I think is gonna be the biggest key here. Botelho does a lot of stuff that leads me to believe she's going to her back. She bully feints a lot with her head and lead leg which if timed is gonna take away her ability to sprawl or cut out on the single, which is Roberson's favorite takedown. If I saw that on tape, they definitely did. Two she relies on kicks, they're good but they're probably going to get caught at some point in this fight. Three, she's not a technically sound striker, her kicks are fast and powerful but her hands and defensive keys are all street level. Minimal full body drive, follow up striking/footwork or layers to her striking game. If that's what her bread and butter looks like, athletically enabled swagger, I expect her takedown defense to be similar, which probably won't fly against Roberson's clean single drive/dump. She'd have a bigger advantage if she flurried more, The weak way Roberson's hands are held and her lack of pocket defense or head movement basically makes her gloves speed bumps when more than one punch comes. Maycee was a great matchup for Gillian's lazy cardio kickboxing offense/defense because she's always coming with volume. Gillian has a pretty good chin and I don't see Botelho's single strike style capitalizing enough to finish her before she shoots, if she can even track her down in the first place. Ultimately Gillian has a lot of different grappling attacks between the single, double and bodylock plus a super offensive top game built around her comfort in the deep half where I imagine Botelho's going to get mired down. I just don't see Botelho having the technical know-how to evade that for 2 of the 3 rounds or the striking to finish it and once her cardio goes, it'll be all downhill from there.
[Gamrot -310] vs Guram +242
Gamrot is a hell of an athlete and an incredible grappler but his striking is clearly developing but right now it's a lot of window dressing. He understands what he should be doing, active tight head movement, feints, level changes, hand trapping, quick feet, feints the whole nine but it doesn't actually hold up when strikes are coming his way. I'mma attribute this to him developing the movement patters without necessarily understanding the concepts behind it. This is really prevalent when we see looping hooks come his way as they run right past all of his defensive ques every time. Like his defense, his offense is also a work in progress. He's got clean, straight, fast hands with fantastic accuracy and volume but doesn't pack any zip and overextends whenever he wants to add some. Additionally he doesn't have any striking diversity short of basic boxing and chronically headhunts. It's a good attrition style for what it is but he's gonna need to add more layers to his striking game than passable boxing if he wants to stand with the killers at LW.
A lot of this is offset by his fantastic grappling though. Constant feinting compliments his super fast level change which he can convert into a variety of takedowns but his single to backtake is an absolute thing of beauty. His ability to chain wrestle already puts him ahead of the curve for transitioning grapplers. The only real issue with the ADCC Europe champions game is that he can overextend on the shot but I don't see that being a major problem long term and more him trying to learn how to blend his burgeoning striking game with a huge grappling skillset. All of this is wrapped around fantastic conditioning and athleticism that allows him to keep pouring on the volume and mixing it up into the 5th round of fights.
Guram isn't bad but he isn't good either. Built from a striking mold but lacking a lot of nuance, Guram's whole game is to set up big power shots but it's too thinly veiled to be effective. We can see this in his wide, bobbing low stance where darting flick shots are immediately followed by him resetting and re-squaring up to dig in for a cannon. He doesn't have the speed or technique to land these consistently enough, especially his kicks which look like they're coming from underwater. He simply isn't smooth, fast or technical enough to implement this game against most high level competition. He does pack heat though if he lands, driving from cartoonishly big quads through hooks and high kicks. Like Gamrot he's pretty athletic in his own right and should have the cardio to keep this fight competitive, should it stay a kickboxing affair. He very clearly doesn't have the takedown defense necessary to stop Gamrot if he wrestles with any regularity. His first level defense is fine but he's susceptible to chain wrestling and gave up a backtake to Erick Silva that Gamrot will take with infinitely more speed.
I really want to see Gamrot come out and wrestle in this one. I know people are predicting a washing here but he's going to be susceptible to Guram's power hooks. If Gamrot mixes in his takedowns early and often he'll absolutely dominate this fight because even if Guram stands back up, he'll never be able to get into the settled striking space he's looking for. That's assuming he doesn't get subbed which is a real possibility. If it does stay on the feet due to a terrible lapse of decision making on Gamrot's part, he could still win it. While his game is a work in progress, I would say it's still ahead of Guram's sans the power. They both feint but Gamrot's are more diverse and subtle, his volume is better, he's more accurate and I just expect him to progress from fight to fight, though I could be wrong on that. Inversely Guram really only has a punchers chance here and lacks a lot of the setup necessary to complete it, assuming Gamrot's defensive ability solidify just a little bit. It's hard to justify -310 here because a finish is an outside shot but unless Gamrot eats a hook through a mirage of defense, he should coast to a jab and takedown heavy victory.
Claudio Silva +122 vs [James Krause -150]
I came into this tape remembering Silva being a lot better than he actually is. Calling him Makenzie Dern with better takedowns and infinitely worse BJJ is apt. He's got all of the aggression and punchability with significantly less venom. Obviously this is all in order to allow his awkward BJJ takedowns (usually just clinches in order to scramble to something) to hit but once he's there he doesn't have the technique, guile or athleticism to dominate. Don't get me wrong, he has a solid pressure game but it's clear he came up in a gi and the lack of it shows when he shifts from positional grappling to offense and lacks the wrestling or no-gi technique to do so in a controlled manner. His striking is just bad. He keeps his hands low, wings shots that carry a lot less power than they should and doesn't have the volume or cardio to win consistently without getting finishes. I just don't think there's enough here to compete against anyone genuinely talented. Obviously he picked up a decent win against Nordine but he was on his way to losing against Roberts before picking up a very sketchy finish. I don't think his lucky is going to carry on much longer and wouldn't be surprised at all if a loss here took him into a losing streak.
Inversely I like James Krause a lot. He probably isn't great enough at anything to ever be a title challenger but he's definitely skilled enough at everything to be a high level journeyman. He's shown he's got the cardio to go deep, a round winning style built on volume and effective grappling and the defensive ability and toughness to hang with Giles, a weight class up on a days notice. He's very confident in his grappling ability as he should be, it's definitely the bread and butter of his skillset. His striking has improved from fight to fight however and now boasts a consistent low kick, great straight punches and the ability to pressure while keeping a multi-layered defense. I think it's obvious he isn't a natural striker, especially in his earlier fights but it is definitely enough to compliment his grappling to make a well rounded, dependable game.
I don't think Silva's game is nearly good enough to sub Krause or hold him down for stretches though he will probably get a scramble takedown at some point. Outside of the fact that James has already survived on the ground against a much better grappler in Moraes, he could very well simply be better than Silva outright. I genuinely wouldn't be shocked to see Krause hit a situational takedown here knowing he's safe. If he keeps it on the feet, he's going to have a significant advantage as he's polished everywhere, aside from the occasional wonky high kick. His low kick, straight punches and defensive sensibility should tear up Silva late. The only real shot I see for Silva here is if Krause decides he's content hanging out on bottom but I just don't think that's likely, especially after the first.
Almeida vs Martinez
Why is anyone trying to bet this? We haven't seen Almeida in nearly 3 years. People keep saying 2 but the reality is we're 3 months away from it being 3 years since he stepped in the cage. No one has any idea what kind of fighter is stepping into the cage and I just can't recommend anyone bet this fight.
