UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

[Stat_Collector]

more chit news

 

[Jordan3399]

Why is a guy like Staropoli with no power at 170 going up to 185, let alone doing it on short notice against a big MW. Ironically, Dolidze too looked rough changing weight class on short notice in his last fight.

Don't get the move at all, good luck point fighting the bigger man at a 5 inch reach disadvantage.

 

[2020Tracked]

UFC Vegas 28,
Saturday, June 5, 2021

#UFCVegas28

parlay +308

Tanner Boser -225
Tom Breese -230

Jordan Leavitt -230 "The Monkey King"
Mason Jones -300 "Dragon"





2019 Tanner Boser article:

Unlike most heavyweights, Tanner Boser doesn’t have the explosiveness nor the knockout power. What Boser does have is solid cardio, which is rare in most heavyweights. Boser likes to keep the fight upright and his takedown defense has held up for the most part of his career. His best weapon is his leg kicks, and when he decides to commit to it, he has landed so many that he has a few stoppages strictly due to leg kicks. Boser also does a nice job throwing his hands after his kicks. What he does lack is aggression as he is a point-fighter, picking his shots which has given him the label of “boring.” Despite his style, he’s only lost to good fighters and has done enough to deserve this opportunity. Boser isn’t too fast and his striking defense isn’t up to par and that allows more explosive guys to tee off on him. With good takedown defense, the times he’s winded up on his back he didn’t have much at all to offer. He’s been in danger quite a few times but has shown toughness, only getting finished once in his career. Boser is good but against an explosive striker, he will struggle. Boser also allows opponents to back him into the cage quite easily and that’s a concern going forward.

2021 Mason Jones article:

Mason Jones is a scrapper, an in-your-face volume puncher. He is a gritty fighter who loves to fight in close quarters with dirty boxing. Jones is so good in the clinch digging at the body, throwing short strikes, nasty elbows, and fight-ending knees. Jones mixes it up better than anyone in the clinch as he will just make his opponents’ lives very difficult in close range. “The Dragon” has an excellent jab usually doubling up and following with combinations. Jones does a fantastic job keeping busy with combinations. He will go body-head often while throwing a lot of leg kicks in combinations. He’s always throwing something different and always coming forward with constant pressure. Jones does slow down but his output and work rate stay progressive. Mason Jones is a solid wrestler as well and when he mixes that in with his striking, it’s when he’s at his best. He’s shown to do well timing his level changes and getting takedowns trapping a leg and shifting his hips for the takedown. Jones brings vicious ground and pound to the table when on top landing a lot of elbows. Sometimes he’s submission before position, but his jiu-jitsu is overlooked. Jones is tough as nails but can be too tough for his own good. Jones has no issue eating shots to give some of his own which is why he always wears damage. So far, his chin has held up but still needs to move his head more. Overall, Jones is a solid fighter and someone the UFC brass will love having on their roster.

• Striking: A
• Kickboxing: A-
• Clinch: A+
• Wrestling: B
• Grappling: B
• Striking Defense: C+
• Takedown Defense: C+
• Cardio: B-
• Biggest Strength: Output/Volume
• Biggest Weakness: Striking defense

Just lol at a 4 leg all the juice parley

 

[2020Tracked]

For anyone who's taped Zalal/Woodson and is taking Zalal can you tell me what you see? Seems to be a very popular dog this week

 

[Stat_Collector]

For anyone who's taped Zalal/Woodson and is taking Zalal can you tell me what you see? Seems to be a very popular dog this week

Better bjj ,exp, wrestling, and a decent darce choke that woodsen lost too. He also can move in and out, he's not going to stand there and trade with Sean. Look at his sapm it's in the 2. Range, against Choi who has good td defense ,he managed to take him down 3x. Got at least four minutes of Ctrl time. Woodsen is very green on the mat and his only pros are his hands and size. I don't see the threat of the ko there,sean will need a point decision, I can see two paths of victory for Zalal, sub or ground Ctrl decision.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Just lol at a 4 leg all the juice parley

Odds are in his favor, 67% favorites win. You'd rather bet on one 300+ dog or four favorable fighters with an edge? Believe it or not , spamming huge favorites with high wins consistency is a smart strategy.

imagine all the years of money you could have won on

Jones,Valentina,Nunes,Adesanya ,Usman, on all the mismatched fights they had. Parlaying these champions together and using the winnings to bet in their next bout for the last ten years, you could have made half a million dollars at least.

 

[mkess101]

Boser is a risky bet not for the striking factor but because his grappling is shit.



He could not scramble once, not even attempted.

Fair. That said, for all of his wrestling accolades, Latifi has never showed to be all that good an MMA grappler imo. And given he's undersized at HW I don't see him having a ton of success getting Boser down. Now...IF he does, I agree, could be bad for Boser.

 

[ballsackarino]

Odds are in his favor, 67% favorites win. You'd rather bet on one 300+ dog or four favorable fighters with an edge? Believe it or not , spamming huge favorites with high wins consistency is a smart strategy.

imagine all the years of money you could have won on

Jones,Valentina,Nunes,Adesanya ,Usman, on all the mismatched fights they had. Parlaying these champions together and using the winnings to bet in their next bout for the last ten years, you could have made half a million dollars at least.

Ah yes 19-6 Tanner Boser and notorious quitter Tom Breese known for their high win consistency. Go slam your account on that chalky play and see how it works out.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ah yes 19-6 Tanner Boser and notorious quitter Tom Breese known for their high win consistency. Go slam your account on that chalky play and see how it works out.

Dont agree with boser but brease is not losing that one. My point wasn’t about the picks themselves, but this mindset going around that betting on anything -200 makes it a bad stradegy.

 

[Broe.]

Ah yes 19-6 Tanner Boser and notorious quitter Tom Breese known for their high win consistency. Go slam your account on that chalky play and see how it works out.

i would argue that arroyo is a bigger quitter than Breese. arroyo has like 3 minutes of fight in him.

 

[Jordan3399]

Odds are in his favor, 67% favorites win. You'd rather bet on one 300+ dog or four favorable fighters with an edge? Believe it or not , spamming huge favorites with high wins consistency is a smart strategy.

imagine all the years of money you could have won on

Jones,Valentina,Nunes,Adesanya ,Usman, on all the mismatched fights they had. Parlaying these champions together and using the winnings to bet in their next bout for the last ten years, you could have made half a million dollars at least.

Can confirm betting gigantic favorites, especially parlayed together is the best strategy in MMA. All those unbeatable champs like Pettis, Joanna, Ronda, Barao, Rockhold etc. that you can easily cash as massive favorites.

Keep up the good work.

 

[Polarize]

Better bjj ,exp, wrestling, and a decent darce choke that woodsen lost too. He also can move in and out, he's not going to stand there and trade with Sean. Look at his sapm it's in the 2. Range, against Choi who has good td defense ,he managed to take him down 3x. Got at least four minutes of Ctrl time. Woodsen is very green on the mat and his only pros are his hands and size. I don't see the threat of the ko there,sean will need a point decision, I can see two paths of victory for Zalal, sub or ground Ctrl decision.

+1. I'm betting Zalal +175.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Can confirm betting gigantic favorites, especially parlayed together is the best strategy in MMA. All those unbeatable champs like Pettis, Joanna, Ronda, Barao, Rockhold etc. that you can easily cash as massive favorites.

Keep up the good work.

None of them are in the same league as the fighters i mentioned. And i said betting on mismatches. You can always spot a mismatch . Its not hard to determine who would win between a jon jones and a anthony smith, or Valentina vs Andrade, you avoid the close matups and you spot the ones who have too many advantages going in. If you ever taken the time to measure fighters through spreadsheets from wrestling,boxing,reach,gym,camp time, etc you would determine that certain fighters have zero to no chance against certain fighters.

 

[Jordan3399]

None of them are in the same league as the fighters i mentioned. And i said betting on mismatches. You can always spot a mismatch . Its not hard to determine who would win between a jon jones and a anthony smith, or Valentina vs Andrade, you avoid the close matups and you spot the ones who have too many advantages going in. If you ever taken the time to measure fighters through spreadsheets from wrestling,boxing,reach,gym,camp time, etc you would determine that certain fighters have zero to no chance against certain fighters.

They aren't in the same league because they lost, at one point people thought they were just as unbeatable that's why they too were gigantic favs. People thought RDA vs Pettis, Holm vs Rousey, Barao vs Dillashaw were all mismatches too. Jones almost got DQd as well even as a 'lock'.

You seem like an advocate for quantitative analysis, big parlays with juiced favourites, champ bias, recency bias and a whole host of horrendous betting practices lol

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fair. That said, for all of his wrestling accolades, Latifi has never showed to be all that good an MMA grappler imo. And given he's undersized at HW I don't see him having a ton of success getting Boser down. Now...IF he does, I agree, could be bad for Boser.

I wonder if the small frame works to his advantage the way did for Cormier. He looks more slim now too, lost some fat in the gut. His ability to takedown a Strong guy like Lewis is impressive. But Tanner does control his range better than Lewis and he can chop that leg of latifi who has been stopped on the feet four times. I would not expose myself too much with either one. For Tanner I would rather replace him with Jamal hill vs Paul Craig in the next card for near the same odds. I feel safer with that fight.But I'm a parlay guy, so if you like live bets this does not apply .

 

[Stat_Collector]

They aren't in the same league because they lost, at one point people thought they were just as unbeatable that's why they too were gigantic favs. People thought RDA vs Pettis, Holm vs Rousey, Barao vs Dillashaw were all mismatches too. Jones almost got DQd as well even as a 'lock'.

You seem like an advocate for quantitative analysis, big parlays with juiced favourites, champ bias, recency bias and a whole host of horrendous betting practices lol

I can post you a link of me predicting Holly Holm beating Ronda prediction two years before it even happened on esb forum.

That's difference between you and me. I determined Holly has previous exp in other combat sports, has better boxing, kicking, trains at a better gym, and was in better shape and frame. What edge did Ronda have? Holly had a 100% td defense. I wasn't at all surprised by the outcome.

 

[2020Tracked]

Better bjj ,exp, wrestling, and a decent darce choke that woodsen lost too. He also can move in and out, he's not going to stand there and trade with Sean. Look at his sapm it's in the 2. Range, against Choi who has good td defense ,he managed to take him down 3x. Got at least four minutes of Ctrl time. Woodsen is very green on the mat and his only pros are his hands and size. I don't see the threat of the ko there,sean will need a point decision, I can see two paths of victory for Zalal, sub or ground Ctrl decision.

Just because he attempted a darce choke doesn't mean it's good, he tried to darce Lingo about 5 times and failed.

I'm not sure, the line is wide but hmm I actually think Woodson's TDD looks fine, pretty decent really, it's more an issue with him being held against the cage for periods and then if the takedown does come he tends to give up his back and his ground game is some what weak. He looks okay defensively, doesn't take much damage and can fights hands fine but he can lose a whole round to the position without showing any real attempt to get up, but he's shown a decent sprawl, in the open people tend to grab a single but his balance is good, he'll get ran back to the cage and then usually guys switch off the single and look to get in on the hips where he has a wide base, just an awkward guy to deal with. People seem to have more success if they can spin to his back and try to elevate him from there.

I don't think Zelal gets takedowns at a high clip, he uses the same single leg entry that everyone does against Woodson, which will lead to cage push and Woodson is good at defending there. Plus Scoring wise Zalal is pretty low volume and if he gets the cage push time he's not going to be doing damage there. I think Zalal has to get cage control/top time and do damage because the volume gulf standing will be huge.

Erosa went strike for strike in terms of output with Woodson like both threw 170+ strikes but Erose still got landed on like 30% more.

Woodson decision for me, maybe Zalal flukes a darce, he has 3/4 attempts against Lingo from various positions and that's how Erosa finished him as you say but how high percentage is that, how does he get it there? It's not like Zelal is shooting doubles

 

[Jordan3399]

I can post you a link of me predicting Holly Holm beating Ronda prediction two years before it even happened on esb forum.

That's difference between you and me. I determined Holly has previous exp in other combat sports, has better boxing, kicking, trains at a better gym, and was in better shape and frame. What edge did Ronda have? Holly had a 100% td defense. I wasn't at all surprised by the outcome.

Look, I'm sorry for criticizing your betting strategies. I have no right or reason to do so and it is completely illogical of me. Stick to your guns and I hope you serve as inspiration to other bettors out there, I hope many people adopt your system and ideally it attracts as much action as possible. I truly believe it is for the greater good that this occurs.

Guys like you keep me in business and that is absolutely fine.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Look, I'm sorry for criticizing your betting strategies. I have no right or reason to do so and it is completely illogical of me. Stick to your guns and I hope you serve as inspiration to other bettors out there, I hope many people adopt your system and ideally it attracts as much action as possible. I truly believe it is for the greater good that this occurs.

Guys like you keep me in business and that is absolutely fine.

What ever that means dude.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Is it just me or is mdlr going to turn lipski into a pretzel on the ground?