UFC Fight Night: Santos v Texeira

Vitor Apologist said:
Lol, go ham on her like you went ham on imdaev.
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4500 on imadaev at +120 wasnt ham...
When I go ham on a bet I really like ill let you know ... and it won't be no -310 spot

Majority of the free money is usually in boxing anyway. Joe Smith at dog odds offset that munhoz loss couple weeks back. If munhoz got the win (I felt he deserved) my parlays and live bets on munhoz wouldve made it like a 15k night for me.
 
Better play. Azaitar +115 or schnell +105 ?
Angela Hill could be nice spot to bet large at -125
There are 5 live dogs in the +200 range (ivy, nelson, weaver, patrick, kish)
Mike rodriguez amd Andrea Lee are great parlay pieces
I currently have no idea who wins roberts frevola fight and Avila-eubanks is too much juice
 
Don't mind Frevola just since I think his come-forward and workrate'll go a long way in what'll probably be a stupid split.

Also crazy Frevola's fighting his third 6'2+ LW in a row.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Otman Azaitar at dog odds, hmmmmm

Worthy had alot of luck in previous fights
Fluke ko and lucky sub
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Azaitar opened as the favorite, the public moved the line.

Also, the 'lucky sub' was in the third round of a fight he would have otherwise won by decision, his opponent (Luis Pena) was panic wrestling after a failed takedown attempt and reshot into a guillotine.
 
TrueAscension said:
much respect to the great post and I think KH has her by a mile if it gets to the ground a sub is the most likely PTV. Maybe I’m wrong but I thought this was a 3 round fight? Hill won’t gas in 3 rounds and she has far crisper striking and power in my opinion -
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Michelle looks to be in great shape right now. Of course it's only looks, but compared to how she looked physically against Esparza (she looked to be carrying more body fat), I expect big things here. She's said to expect more offense this time around. I could be wrong but I have a sneaky feeling Hill backers are going to be huge victims to her getting more media exposure as of late. Hill has never beaten the next step up in competition.

Not saying Michelle is a world beater, but given the opportunity - she will find a finish. This fight gets to the ground and Waterson will find Hill's back and choke her out
 
Kazda1 said:
Michelle looks to be in great shape right now. Of course it's only looks, but compared to how she looked physically against Esparza (she looked to be carrying more body fat), I expect big things here. She's said to expect more offense this time around. I could be wrong but I have a sneaky feeling Hill backers are going to be huge victims to her getting more media exposure as of late. Hill has never beaten the next step up in competition.

Not saying Michelle is a world beater, but given the opportunity - she will find a finish. This fight gets to the ground and Waterson will find Hill's back and choke her out
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I mean you are obviously on Michelle and I am obviously on Hill so let's take this with a grain of salt.

Hill just lost to Claudia Gadelha in one of the worst decisions I've seen this year which is saying a lot. Claudia was a huge step up in competition from the cans she recently knocked out admittedly but she won 2/3 rounds in pretty convincing fashion. She's been the more active fighter and while she may not have the full arsenal that Watterson has, she hits with more power in my opinion.

Michelle Watterson, though against much higher (and I cannot stress this enough WMMA) competition, has lost 4 of her last 7 with her best win being over a pretty shitty fighter in KK. If we are going to speak about stepping up in competition and not getting the job done, we should be speaking about Michelle Watterson.

As far as getting the finish, both women are fully capable of doing that so perhaps we join hands, sing Koom Bai Ya and take the "fight doesn't go the distance" prop
 
I got just under 2u on Worthy at 2.43. After research It looks to me like Azaitar has a solid chance of cracking Worthy. I am deffs eyeing that prop off as a hedge. Potentially even reducing my action in half.
 
So Bobby Green is in against Alan Patrick. I love Green but kind of worrisome considering he said one of his hands was jacked after the Vannatta fight.
 
StewDogg11 said:
So Bobby Green is in against Alan Patrick. I love Green but kind of worrisome considering he said one of his hands was jacked after the Vannatta fight.
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yeah I like patrick here as a +200 dog, Green's takedown defense is also not great, could be a favourable matchup for Patrick tbh.
 
Broe. said:
yeah I like patrick here as a +200 dog, Green's takedown defense is also not great, could be a favourable matchup for Patrick tbh.
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I think you’re selling Green’s takedown defense short as he’s fought a ton of wrestlers and no one’s really been able to hold him down. He also has underrated scrambling and jiu jitsu in my humble opinion. His hand is the most worrisome thing about this fight to me.
 
chemmy said:
Green’s takedown defense is pretty solid. It’s his lack of urgency and aggression that costs him at times and could make this fight a lot closer than it needs to be.
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well I would argue that his scrambling ability is good and it is hard to keep him down, but just look at how many takedowns he gives away some fights, 4 against Vannata in their first fight, 3 against Guida.
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
4500 on imadaev at +120 wasnt ham...
When I go ham on a bet I really like ill let you know ... and it won't be no -310 spot

Majority of the free money is usually in boxing anyway. Joe Smith at dog odds offset that munhoz loss couple weeks back. If munhoz got the win (I felt he deserved) my parlays and live bets on munhoz wouldve made it like a 15k night for me.
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What you do with your money is your own business. But to be honest, putting 4500$ on a fighter like Imadaev is probably one of the worse bets I've seen in a long time. He has fought terrible competition; most of his opponents outside of the UFC have losing records and not surprisingly: Imadaev looked terrible in the UFC! When having the option to bet on good underdogs like Andre Muniz, Ovince St. Preux and Alistair Overeem, it still blows my mind that you somehow thought that it was a good idea to put money on a guy like Imadaev. I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but it was kind of a ridiculous bet to make. I had Pereira winning 9/10 times pre fight.
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
Better play. Azaitar +115 or schnell +105 ?
Angela Hill could be nice spot to bet large at -125
There are 5 live dogs in the +200 range (ivy, nelson, weaver, patrick, kish)
Mike rodriguez amd Andrea Lee are great parlay pieces
I currently have no idea who wins roberts frevola fight and Avila-eubanks is too much juice
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1.) Azaitar
2.) Bet large on a 50/50 WMMA fight? Nope
3.) I don't really like any of your "5 live dogs". I see Ivy, Weaver (not that I trust Camacho lol) and Patrick losing, Kish isn't a terrible bet as an underdog in a more or less 50/50 WMMA fight and Nelson has a chance to win in the first round. If the fight goes out of the first, he will gas hard and probably get finished.
4.) I don't trust Mike Rodriguez, Lee is ok as a parlay piece.
5.) Give me Frevole as a small underdog, I'm pretty confident.
 
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Broe. said:
well I would argue that his scrambling ability is good and it is hard to keep him down, but just look at how many takedowns he gives away some fights, 4 against Vannata in their first fight, 3 against Guida.
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I can see Patrick getting some early takedowns, but Green will make him work HARD for every takedown and will scramble back to his feet. After the first round, Patrick will be dead in the water.
 
mmaday4day said:
I can see Patrick getting some early takedowns, but Green will make him work HARD for every takedown and will scramble back to his feet. After the first round, Patrick will be dead in the water.
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maybe, but he is the -220 favourite.
 
Green seems to let guys have the fight they want with him, and it always ends up making things close. He should school Patrick standing but hmm, maybe he will do a typical Green and let him engage all the grappling and wrestling exchanges he likes.

Greens best win in 6 years is Lando Vanata, whatever
 
TrueAscension said:
I mean you are obviously on Michelle and I am obviously on Hill so let's take this with a grain of salt.

Hill just lost to Claudia Gadelha in one of the worst decisions I've seen this year which is saying a lot. Claudia was a huge step up in competition from the cans she recently knocked out admittedly but she won 2/3 rounds in pretty convincing fashion. She's been the more active fighter and while she may not have the full arsenal that Watterson has, she hits with more power in my opinion.

Michelle Watterson, though against much higher (and I cannot stress this enough WMMA) competition, has lost 4 of her last 7 with her best win being over a pretty shitty fighter in KK. If we are going to speak about stepping up in competition and not getting the job done, we should be speaking about Michelle Watterson.

As far as getting the finish, both women are fully capable of doing that so perhaps we join hands, sing Koom Bai Ya and take the "fight doesn't go the distance" prop
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I hope you don't take my post personally or think I have something against you. It's not - it's just discussion / fight banter. Best of luck to you on your side. I'm just more or less trying to understand your reasoning, is all.

You make fair points in this post which I can't deny. But I have to ask - if Hill doesn't knock down Gadelha in RD 2 and for whatever reason Gadelha doesn't fight Hill's fight and fight the way we know she was once capable of, is that fight even remotely as close as we think it was? Even fighting a style she's not capable of and gassing in the process, Gadelha still won. We as MMA fans need to stop acting like Claudia Gadelha is as good as she used to be - she's a name at this point without the style we knew her to have. If Gadelha doesn't stand with Hill, that fight doesn't go the full 3 rounds.

Even still, I say Waterson has fought better competition to this point, and yes - she's lost to them as well, but the bottom of the barrel 115lb. losses Hill has, Waterson doesn't. (I'm going to include losses to Markos, Casey and the 2017 version of Ansaroff in this argument) Otherwise, Waterson has beaten Casey and Herrig who I would say is on Hill's level.

Hill is very accurate as a striker which may give the illusion of power, but she's not stopping anybody with strikes in the UFC not named Hannah Cifers. Waterson won't either for what it's worth. But in a point fighting contest where Hill hasn't fought someone in a while who's fairly decorated as a striker since maybe Andrade - where's her advantage to get a stoppage? Waterson hasn't been stopped to strikes in the UFC yet.

There's evidence that suggests on multiple occasions if Hill gets put in a bad spot on the ground (and she will give up takedowns) she's going to tap. But I do agree with you - this one's not going the distance.
 
mmaday4day said:
What you do with your money is your own business. But to be honest, putting 4500$ on a fighter like Imadaev is probably one of the worse bets I've seen in a long time. He has fought terrible competition; most of his opponents outside of the UFC have losing records and not surprisingly: Imadaev looked terrible in the UFC! When having the option to bet on good underdogs like Andre Muniz, Ovince St. Preux and Alistair Overeem, it still blows my mind that you somehow thought that it was a good idea to put money on a guy like Imadaev. I'm not trying to bust your balls here, but it was kind of a ridiculous bet to make. I had Pereira winning 9/10 times pre fight.
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I hit with muniz for alot and hit overeem for a lesser amount.. i really honestly just didn't think pereira was that good and saw imadaev landing bombs on him w his boxing. I was woefully wrong... before imadaev I hit every fight. Then imadaev and menifield happened. O well.. imadaev will go down as one of my worst bets he literally got bitch slapped... but we look to the future
 
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