UFC Fight Night - Strickland vs Hermansson - Official discussion

[BigSteve]

Erosa/Peterson: Peterson is quite bad. He has fought a really low lvl of competition in the UFC and is barely 50%. He is a brawler with decent jits game, but I think Erosa eats him up in the standup here. Peterson is getting hurt by Caceres, Davis, Pena. Martin Bravo is taking the piss out of him until he eats a meme spinning back fist. He also doesn't have the power to take advantage of Erosa's chin. Erasa is quite underrated in my opinion and has a big reach advantage here. I think he is live to finish Peterson, shame about the odds.

Almeida/Danilo: Some similarities with these two, both big boys looking to grind out and sub everyone they fight. Almeida for sure has more athletism and natural power. Odds are a bit out of hand, maybe Danilo puts up a bigger fight because he is getting a grappling fight. Although he is pretty stiff and hittable, and his cardio is atrocious. Almeida also gives me some flakey and gassy vibes. There's not much tape on him but he seems to be able to push through it. Potentially the under might be a decent spot, Almeida is a finisher.

Witt/Rowe: Rowe has a huge reach and some nice straight punches when he sits down and let's go. Also, a decent jits game to boot, but I'm not sure about his durability and IQ. He is fighting the chinniest man in the UFC here. Similar fight to the Cosce one, except Witt has way better cardio and Cosce has better durabilty. In that fight, Rowe was stuck against the cage for ages, pulled guard, and in round 2 jumped in with a flying knee and got clinched immediately. I almost pulled my hair out having a bet on him, especially when on the feet he was dominating. He got the KO eventually, against Witt he won't need that many punches. Witt is so hard to back even as a dog, knowing that he can get dropped super easy and lose rounds just like that. He probably gets easy takedowns here early, but at some point, I could see him getting murked. Rowe seems to be improving, I want to lay that juice because even if he doesn't get the KO, I could see him stealing rounds when he lets his hands go. Maybe at fav odds there isn't much value, but I am tempted. Even his last fight with Barbarena was a blood and guts war and he is completely washed.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Safest picks for me:
Sean Strickland
Punahele Soriano
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Phil Hawes
Tresean Gore
Julian Erosa
Miles Johns
Alexis Davis
Jailton Almeida
Denys Bondar

 

['Suga Daddy']

I’m wondering what people are seeing in Strickland, apart from the obvious hype and the fact he is on a win streak. Beating Uriah Hall by decision doesn’t justify these odds in my opinion

 

[2020Tracked]

Don't really see why people are so confident in Puna, gasses every fight and there isn't really any footage of him defending against a persistent takedown threat.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Don't really see why people are so confident in Puna, gasses every fight and there isn't really any footage of him defending against a persistent takedown threat.

Soriano:State champ wrestler, State champ judoka, All-American wrestler '
Nicks record is can stacked. At least Soriano has three solid wins in the ufc. and his hands and power are lethal. I can see a 1st round ko here. just on experience alone. Dusko was a good prospect before the ufc, he had a win on Michel Pereira, I think Dusko is far better than than Nick.

One last thing is Nick's last performance wasn't dominate. Cody managed to get top position over him in that third round. I just dont see much of an edge here for Nick. The grappling gap is not large enough to consider here, but I cant say the striking isn't. This is probably the safest fight next to Davis.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Don't really see why people are so confident in Puna, gasses every fight and there isn't really any footage of him defending against a persistent takedown threat.

For a moment I read that as 'a presidential takedown threat'. Which would be pretty novel.

 

[grujo]

Don't really see why people are so confident in Puna, gasses every fight and there isn't really any footage of him defending against a persistent takedown threat.

Puna was better in third round against Allen than in second, and he had a nasty weight cut. Against Pickett was ok also, other two fights in UFC he finished in r1, so.....can't see problems there. On the other hand Nick gassed really bad against Cody in third round.

My most confident pick on this card, tbh.

 

[mkess101]

Erosa/Peterson: Peterson is quite bad. He has fought a really low lvl of competition in the UFC and is barely 50%. He is a brawler with decent jits game, but I think Erosa eats him up in the standup here. Peterson is getting hurt by Caceres, Davis, Pena. Martin Bravo is taking the piss out of him until he eats a meme spinning back fist. He also doesn't have the power to take advantage of Erosa's chin. Erasa is quite underrated in my opinion and has a big reach advantage here. I think he is live to finish Peterson, shame about the odds.

Almeida/Danilo: Some similarities with these two, both big boys looking to grind out and sub everyone they fight. Almeida for sure has more athletism and natural power. Odds are a bit out of hand, maybe Danilo puts up a bigger fight because he is getting a grappling fight. Although he is pretty stiff and hittable, and his cardio is atrocious. Almeida also gives me some flakey and gassy vibes. There's not much tape on him but he seems to be able to push through it. Potentially the under might be a decent spot, Almeida is a finisher.

Witt/Rowe: Rowe has a huge reach and some nice straight punches when he sits down and let's go. Also, a decent jits game to boot, but I'm not sure about his durability and IQ. He is fighting the chinniest man in the UFC here. Similar fight to the Cosce one, except Witt has way better cardio and Cosce has better durabilty. In that fight, Rowe was stuck against the cage for ages, pulled guard, and in round 2 jumped in with a flying knee and got clinched immediately. I almost pulled my hair out having a bet on him, especially when on the feet he was dominating. He got the KO eventually, against Witt he won't need that many punches. Witt is so hard to back even as a dog, knowing that he can get dropped super easy and lose rounds just like that. He probably gets easy takedowns here early, but at some point, I could see him getting murked. Rowe seems to be improving, I want to lay that juice because even if he doesn't get the KO, I could see him stealing rounds when he lets his hands go. Maybe at fav odds there isn't much value, but I am tempted. Even his last fight with Barbarena was a blood and guts war and he is completely washed.

Peterson is a jobber and Juicy J is far more skilled...but the gap in durability would concern me in paying juice on Juicy J (LOL juice on Juicy J...nice). Such a shitty feeling betting a big favorite against a less skilled but tough guy and the favorite is winning easily but the other guy just hangs in there and then lands that killshot because he can take a punch and his opponent can't.

Erosa -180...yes. Erosa -280? Hard pass.

Edit: To be clear, I think it's what you're saying too so I'm basically agreeing with you.

 

[Thesnake101]

Peterson is a jobber and Juicy J is far more skilled...but the gap in durability would concern me in paying juice on Juicy J (LOL juice on Juicy J...nice). Such a shitty feeling betting a big favorite against a less skilled but tough guy and the favorite is winning easily but the other guy just hangs in there and then lands that killshot because he can take a punch and his opponent can't.

Erosa -180...yes. Erosa -280? Hard pass.

Edit: To be clear, I think it's what you're saying too so I'm basically agreeing with you.

Peterson isn't much of a KO artist though (aside from that spinning backfist counter) and at this point, it's hard to write off Erosa's durability given how he survived Jourdain and Woodson.

Having said that, I'd probably hit Julian by decision if anything. I do agree that his ML nearing -300 is just not worth it.

 

[mkess101]

Peterson isn't much of a KO artist though (aside from that spinning backfist counter) and at this point, it's hard to write off Erosa's durability given how he survived Jourdain and Woodson.

Having said that, I'd probably hit Julian by decision if anything. I do agree that his ML nearing -300 is just not worth it.

Yeah...Juilan has seemed a bit less chinny lately I guess. I still give a pretty big durability edge to Peterson here though.

 

[2020Tracked]

Puna was better in third round against Allen than in second, and he had a nasty weight cut. Against Pickett was ok also, other two fights in UFC he finished in r1, so.....can't see problems there. On the other hand Nick gassed really bad against Cody in third round.

My most confident pick on this card, tbh.

He gassed out of his mind in the Pickett fight and had to just lay and pray for 2 rounds.

He has 100% TDD, but he's only had to defend one takedown in the UFC, Maximov was able to win the wrestling and grappling with Cody Brundage, a much more established wrestler with a gas tank.

Puna getting out struck by clunky, chinny Brendon Allen is a concern.

I'd be in no way surprised if Puna knocks Maximov out, but I'd also be in no way surprised if he gasses and gets worked

 

[matthew55]

Soriano:State champ wrestler, State champ judoka, All-American wrestler '
Nicks record is can stacked. At least Soriano has three solid wins in the ufc. and his hands and power are lethal. I can see a 1st round ko here. just on experience alone. Dusko was a good prospect before the ufc, he had a win on Michel Pereira, I think Dusko is far better than than Nick.

One last thing is Nick's last performance wasn't dominate. Cody managed to get top position over him in that third round. I just dont see much of an edge here for Nick. The grappling gap is not large enough to consider here, but I cant say the striking isn't. This is probably the safest fight next to Davis.


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I don't think Stoli is a gimme fight for Davis. If Julia can keep it standing, she wins, if not she could still get a sub. I do think Soriano rolls though

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Think I Want to play castenada, thought about gore. Money came in on both over the weekend.

not sure if I want to play gores ml, certainly not now. I’m only interested if he gets a ko. Battle isn’t the type of guy to let hang around for three rounds with all those muscles

already on Peterson at +285, Erosa is too much of a flake to be laying that kind of chalk on him. People are insane

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't think Stoli is a gimme fight for Davis. If Julia can keep it standing, she wins, if not she could still get a sub. I do think Soriano rolls though

I think you're vastly overestimating Stoliarenko's grappling. Davis has only been tapped once, and that came from having McMann on top.

If Juljia hunts for armbars all night, she's just going to waste energy.

 

[2020Tracked]

Soriano:State champ wrestler, State champ judoka, All-American wrestler '
Nicks record is can stacked. At least Soriano has three solid wins in the ufc. and his hands and power are lethal. I can see a 1st round ko here. just on experience alone. Dusko was a good prospect before the ufc, he had a win on Michel Pereira, I think Dusko is far better than than Nick.

One last thing is Nick's last performance wasn't dominate. Cody managed to get top position over him in that third round. I just dont see much of an edge here for Nick. The grappling gap is not large enough to consider here, but I cant say the striking isn't. This is probably the safest fight next to Davis.


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Just reading off some wrestling credentials is meaningless, we've never seen him defend against persistent wrestlers and grapplers. His hands are lethal and his striking is elite... Got out stuck for 3 rounds against Brendon Allan

 

[Jonathan Utah]

Why am I looking at Sam Alvey? Someone convince me not to.

 

[mkess101]

Why am I looking at Sam Alvey? Someone convince me not to.

Well...he's 0-6-1 in his last 7 fights. He was never smooth, quick, or athletic. In his prime he was a low volume power puncher with good counter wrestling and a solid chin. He was good at baiting guys into his power, sort of lulling them into thinking they were in a safe rhythm and then landing one bomb that won him the fight. Now he's old and even slower than before (which was already pretty slow) and his chin isn't what it was (although it's still probably not totally cracked).

Hawes actually looked REALLY good vs Curtis and was outclassing him and landing at will before getting caught. But at this point, Alvey might just be way too slow to land the shot that Curtis landed that hurt Hawes and led to the end of the fight.

I'm not saying -350 or worse is something I'd be excited to pay on Hawes either. But Alvey is washed imo. Odds seem probably **about** right.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Just reading off some wrestling credentials is meaningless, we've never seen him defend against persistent wrestlers and grapplers. His hands are lethal and his striking is elite... Got out stuck for 3 rounds against Brendon Allan

Defensively no, but we did see his wrestling against Pickett. We know he is comfortable wrestling a big guy like jaime. And him having grappling background means he had to defend takedowns during his wrestling days, means he has logged in massive hours of takedown defense, and state champion wrestler is a high prestige.

Brandon Allen was coming off a loss to Sean and went full focus on standup, he employed a solid leg kick to Sorianos lead leg , that was a good stradegy, that is just testiment to brendon allen having superior experience. He had been in more competitive fights and got himself a decision win. Nick doesn’t have that experience, nick doesn’t have the finish rate(against ufc talent), nick doesnt have the size, nick doesnt have the standup of even a Brendon Allen, can you honestly tell me what would happen to soriano if nick gets him down? You think he cant scramble back up? If Nick had submitted Cody and the dwcs guy i would rate his submission offense a threat to soriano, but he did not do that, his best submission wins are the following records: 1-3 , 1-11, 1-5, his tko wins 1-1 , 0-3

when you compare this to the ko wins of soriano”s against just Dusko alone, it out shines every thing nick has accomplished. Soriano has natural power, durability and combate tested. His lead hook and overhand right is the stuff you find commonly in somoan fighters like Hunt and David Tua, its why you see so many talented polynesians that get into boxing.

 

[BigSteve]

Safest picks for me:
Sean Strickland
Punahele Soriano
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Phil Hawes
Tresean Gore
Julian Erosa
Miles Johns
Alexis Davis
Jailton Almeida
Denys Bondar

thats a lot of 'safe' picks in mma my man haha. Wish it was that easy to make a fortune

 

[BigSteve]

Just reading off some wrestling credentials is meaningless, we've never seen him defend against persistent wrestlers and grapplers. His hands are lethal and his striking is elite... Got out stuck for 3 rounds against Brendon Allan

I think its more that we have seen Maximovs takedowns stuffed a lot. Hes not a great wrestler at all, he is just persistent like you say. And that is against low level of oposition too. He is a grinder, average standup, no GNP on top and cardio not the best either. Puna you have to dig deep to find snippets, kind of like Strickland. Puna is tossing people around on regionals, and even Picket in the third while he was gassed. He is naturally the better wrestler and way more explosive.You can see some grappling exchanges against Piechota who is a decent black belt European champion. Puna is hard to control. Not many people consistently go for takedowns against Puna because when they do they get instantly stuffed, cant even get on his hips. When you are fighting or grappling that lingers in your mind, and you dont want to waste you energy going for takedowns against a guy that hard to takedown. Allan shot randomly in round 2 after they were striking for 8 minutes and Puna instantly defended with a high-level sprawl. He was puffing at that point. He was tossing Todorovic around whenever he tried to clinch up with him. although Dusko probably needs to drop down he seemed weak against Pitolo too. Maximov is different because he will dive in on ankles, but unless you are Kabib thats not a good fight style in the UFC. He lost round three to Cody being stuffed and eating punches. Can you imagine Punas GNP while on top lol, it would easily sway the judges. Cody could have easily won round 2 if he didnt shoot his own takedown like a moron, Krause ripped into him about that as well.