UFC Fight Night: Thompson Vs. Neal

2020Tracked said:
Seeing a few people on MMA twitter and a few other spots, PigLord for example in his write up, talking about how Pereira is a BJJ black belt, which is true, but at no point has his ground game looked impressive at all. I've even seen him get beat up badly on the mat when he's on top.

And he got easily controlled by Tristan, fair enough Tristan is a black belt himself but he's also half of Pereira's size and turned up on a few days notice.

Not to say Khaos has any kind of ground game but he does like to get on top and work ground and pound, if he gets into those kind of positions I don't see Pereira sweeping him even getting up. I feel if he ends up on his back with Khaos on top he will stay there for the rest of the round
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i just threw it out there, i think it's probably going to be a striking fight where i like pereira (if he doesn't get death shotted in r1).
 
RingsAndThings said:
rich people have much better things to do than bet ufc early in the week at tiny limits. rich people who casually enjoy ufc bet on saturday afternoons.
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sure. lets carry on back to the topic and contribute to the thread bud.

Trying to do a dive on greg hardys social media to find anything that shows hes been working on his wrestling / TDD. even weirder that it looks like Din Thomas deleted his social media (generally shows how the camp is going).
During the Maurice Greene fight it's mentioned Greg is now working with Rashad 1 on 1.
 
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DarkneT said:
Kyle Marley doing ‘play of the year’ on this card
Anyone wanna leak it? I’m curious
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Geoff Neal (-115) vs. Stephen Thompson (-105): Neal by TKO

Geoff Neal is the real deal. He is one of my favorite strikers currently and this is a fight that should stay on the feet. Neal is more likely to look for takedowns, but I don't think he will need them. This should be a karate fighter versus boxer matchup, with Thompson being the one looking to stay on the outside, pick his shots and try to stay in kicking range. Neal has great, powerful kicks as well, but he should not be looking to play Thompson's game. Neal should be pushing him backward and taking the kicking game out of it. If he is pressuring Thompson heavily, I think he gets a stoppage at some point in this fight. I think Neal's hands are just too good and we have seen Thompson dropped by guys like a prime Tyron Woodley and Anthony Pettis, both of whom likely aren't on the same level as Neal is now.

Jose Aldo (-140) vs. Marlon Vera (+120): Aldo by decision

Aldo's best days are behind him and Vera is in the prime of his career and knocking on the door for a shot at the title. Both guys have solid grappling games, but I don't think we see a lot of takedown attempts and this should mainly take place on the feet. I still give Aldo the edge in the striking and I agree with the line making him a small favorite. I think this will be back-and-forth and close on volume. I think Aldo is the more technical and powerful striker, so I am going to lean with him.

Michel Pereira (-120) vs. Khaos Williams (+100): Pereira by decision

Williams is coming off two huge early KOs, so I expected him to be the slight favorite. Pereira has shown big power too and he gained attention before Williams did. He has shown improvement since then in putting a complete, dominant fight together in his last outing and getting a submission. Williams has power and could get a knockout, but he doesn't have the "touch of death," so not every punch he lands will rattle his opponent. I will take Pereira because I think he can put it all together and win in more ways than just by knockout.

Marlon Moraes (-145) vs. Rob Font (+125): Font by decision

This should be a fun striking match. Moraes is the more powerful striker, and his leg kicks could be a big factor. Font is the taller and longer guy and he is more of a volume puncher who should be throwing and landing more shots. He hits heavy as well and could get a knockout of his own, but Moraes has more one-shot power. Moraes also is more dangerous on the mat, but I don't see either guy having a grappling-heavy game plan. I think Font is a decent underdog pick and I think he can win this fight on volume alone.

Greg Hardy (-120) vs. Marcin Tybura (+100): Tybura by decision

This is a big step up for Hardy. If he can win, he likely headed toward a top-10 ranking. He is the more athletic, powerful, durable and faster fighter. Tybura is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter and, if his chin holds up, I like him to get the win. I think he can keep this fight close on the feet, if not even win the striking battles. However, if I were his coach, I would have him looking for takedowns because if he can land one each round, I think he can keep Hardy on his back long enough to win the rounds. He could also get a submission or stoppage if he has more of a grappling-heavy game plan.

Gillian Robertson (-110) vs. Talia Santos (-110): Santos by TKO

Robertson is purely a grappler and all she will be looking to do is grab Santos and drag her to the mat. That is going to be her game plan in every fight and, if it works, she has a decent chance at finding a submission. Santos is going to look to stuff those takedowns and, if she can, she is going to dominate the striking and probably get a TKO. I think Santos' edge on the feet is bigger than Robertson's edge on the mat, so I am going to lean with her to get a finish.

Anthony Pettis (-230) vs. Alex Morono (+195): Morono by decision

Pettis is the more talented all-around fighter. He is the more technical striker and he has more power. He is probably the better grappler as well, but they are both solid grapplers. Pettis is on the downside of his career and Morono looks like he is in his prime. I think Pettis probably looks better early in this fight but, if Morono has the volume like he did in his last fight where he landed 176 significant strikes, I don't think Pettis can keep up. At these odds, I have to lean with the underdog, and I think he can win Rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised.

Belal Muhammad (-360) vs. Dhiego Lima (+300): Muhammad by decision

Muhammad is my most confident pick on the card. He should be the one leading the dance, pushing forward and landing more strikes while the fight is on the feet. He is also the better wrestler and he will probably be mixing in takedowns as well. Lima might have more one-punch power, and maybe he is the better submission grappler as well. I just don't see him getting the knockout and I don't think he can submit Muhammad from the bottom, where he will likely be if this fight hits the mat.

Sijara Eubanks (-165) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+145): Eubanks by decision

This is a close fight on the feet, and I expect it to go back and forth. I think this is 50-50 on the feet and I really don't see either fighter dominating the striking. I give Eubanks the edge on the mat, so I agree with her being the favorite. I will side with her as well because that is the only real edge that I see. This fight might not even hit the mat, but I see the striking being so close that one takedown and some ground-and-pound could steal a round for Eubanks.

Karl Roberson (-265) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+225): Roberson by TKO

Aside from power, I give Roberson the edge everywhere. He is the better overall striker with more tools, and he has the grappling edge as well. Lungiambula has the power to put anybody's lights out so I give him a puncher's chance, but I don't see him winning any other way.

Antonio Arroyo (-155) vs. Deron Winn (+135): Arroyo by TKO

Give me Arroyo in this fight. He is the better and more dangerous striker, and he has a 9-inch height advantage. He should look as though he is a weight class heavier. Winn is a short and thick wrestler, and he is going to need to rack up takedowns in order to win rounds. I don't see him finishing Arroyo and I think Arroyo is the better grappler. Winn could be the guy pressing forward with higher output on the feet and mixing in takedowns to steal rounds. I don't see that being enough for him and I will take Arroyo to get a knockout.

Drako Rodriguez (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+170): Rodriguez by decision

Zahabi is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting for his job against Rodriguez, who is making his UFC debut. Zahabi has decent technical striking, and his grappling is solid too. He just doesn't strike enough and he isn't a wrestler. His biggest issue is that he isn't a high-pace fighter, and Rodriguez looks to be the guy who will be fighting at a higher pace, throwing harder shots and looking to wrestle. I think Zahabi is going to need a finish to get his hand raised, but I don't see it happening and I think he gets outworked over 15 minutes.

Tafon Nchukwi (-320) vs. Jamie Pickett (+260): Nchukwi by TKO

Nchukwi is a beast. You can see just looking at him that he has a ton of power and all his wins are knockouts in the first two rounds. He was fighting at heavyweight and now he is making the drop to 185 pounds. Pickett is big and powerful himself and he looks to be the faster guy who is lighter on his feet. I think Nchukwi by knockout is the most likely outcome, so the Nchukwi by TKO prop (if available at your sportsbook) would be the best way to bet the favorite.

Jimmy Flick (-150) vs Cody Durden (+135): Flick by submission

This should be a grappling-heavy fight. On the feet, I give the edge to Durden and he has the power and durability edge as well. Durden might be the better wrestler, but I think Flick is on a different level in the grappling department and I don't see him accepting a striking battle. I think this fight hits the mat more than once, and I'll pick Flick to lock up a submission.

Rick Glenn (-330) vs. Carlton Minus (+270): Minus by decision

Glenn is coming up from featherweight and Minus is coming down from welterweight to meet at 155 pounds. Glenn will be the taller guy, but Minus will be the stronger fighter and he has a 5-inch reach advantage. Glenn is the more experienced fighter, and he is usually the one looking to push forward and bully his opponent. But he is usually the bigger guy in his fights, and I don't see him being able to dominate any part of this battle. I don't get these odds and I think this fight should be much closer to 50-50. I see this being a back-and-forth striking match that either guy can win, so I will side with the underdog.
 
TrueAscension said:
Geoff Neal (-115) vs. Stephen Thompson (-105): Neal by TKO

Geoff Neal is the real deal. He is one of my favorite strikers currently and this is a fight that should stay on the feet. Neal is more likely to look for takedowns, but I don't think he will need them. This should be a karate fighter versus boxer matchup, with Thompson being the one looking to stay on the outside, pick his shots and try to stay in kicking range. Neal has great, powerful kicks as well, but he should not be looking to play Thompson's game. Neal should be pushing him backward and taking the kicking game out of it. If he is pressuring Thompson heavily, I think he gets a stoppage at some point in this fight. I think Neal's hands are just too good and we have seen Thompson dropped by guys like a prime Tyron Woodley and Anthony Pettis, both of whom likely aren't on the same level as Neal is now.

Jose Aldo (-140) vs. Marlon Vera (+120): Aldo by decision

Aldo's best days are behind him and Vera is in the prime of his career and knocking on the door for a shot at the title. Both guys have solid grappling games, but I don't think we see a lot of takedown attempts and this should mainly take place on the feet. I still give Aldo the edge in the striking and I agree with the line making him a small favorite. I think this will be back-and-forth and close on volume. I think Aldo is the more technical and powerful striker, so I am going to lean with him.

Michel Pereira (-120) vs. Khaos Williams (+100): Pereira by decision

Williams is coming off two huge early KOs, so I expected him to be the slight favorite. Pereira has shown big power too and he gained attention before Williams did. He has shown improvement since then in putting a complete, dominant fight together in his last outing and getting a submission. Williams has power and could get a knockout, but he doesn't have the "touch of death," so not every punch he lands will rattle his opponent. I will take Pereira because I think he can put it all together and win in more ways than just by knockout.

Marlon Moraes (-145) vs. Rob Font (+125): Font by decision

This should be a fun striking match. Moraes is the more powerful striker, and his leg kicks could be a big factor. Font is the taller and longer guy and he is more of a volume puncher who should be throwing and landing more shots. He hits heavy as well and could get a knockout of his own, but Moraes has more one-shot power. Moraes also is more dangerous on the mat, but I don't see either guy having a grappling-heavy game plan. I think Font is a decent underdog pick and I think he can win this fight on volume alone.

Greg Hardy (-120) vs. Marcin Tybura (+100): Tybura by decision

This is a big step up for Hardy. If he can win, he likely headed toward a top-10 ranking. He is the more athletic, powerful, durable and faster fighter. Tybura is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter and, if his chin holds up, I like him to get the win. I think he can keep this fight close on the feet, if not even win the striking battles. However, if I were his coach, I would have him looking for takedowns because if he can land one each round, I think he can keep Hardy on his back long enough to win the rounds. He could also get a submission or stoppage if he has more of a grappling-heavy game plan.

Gillian Robertson (-110) vs. Talia Santos (-110): Santos by TKO

Robertson is purely a grappler and all she will be looking to do is grab Santos and drag her to the mat. That is going to be her game plan in every fight and, if it works, she has a decent chance at finding a submission. Santos is going to look to stuff those takedowns and, if she can, she is going to dominate the striking and probably get a TKO. I think Santos' edge on the feet is bigger than Robertson's edge on the mat, so I am going to lean with her to get a finish.

Anthony Pettis (-230) vs. Alex Morono (+195): Morono by decision

Pettis is the more talented all-around fighter. He is the more technical striker and he has more power. He is probably the better grappler as well, but they are both solid grapplers. Pettis is on the downside of his career and Morono looks like he is in his prime. I think Pettis probably looks better early in this fight but, if Morono has the volume like he did in his last fight where he landed 176 significant strikes, I don't think Pettis can keep up. At these odds, I have to lean with the underdog, and I think he can win Rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised.

Belal Muhammad (-360) vs. Dhiego Lima (+300): Muhammad by decision

Muhammad is my most confident pick on the card. He should be the one leading the dance, pushing forward and landing more strikes while the fight is on the feet. He is also the better wrestler and he will probably be mixing in takedowns as well. Lima might have more one-punch power, and maybe he is the better submission grappler as well. I just don't see him getting the knockout and I don't think he can submit Muhammad from the bottom, where he will likely be if this fight hits the mat.

Sijara Eubanks (-165) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+145): Eubanks by decision

This is a close fight on the feet, and I expect it to go back and forth. I think this is 50-50 on the feet and I really don't see either fighter dominating the striking. I give Eubanks the edge on the mat, so I agree with her being the favorite. I will side with her as well because that is the only real edge that I see. This fight might not even hit the mat, but I see the striking being so close that one takedown and some ground-and-pound could steal a round for Eubanks.

Karl Roberson (-265) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+225): Roberson by TKO

Aside from power, I give Roberson the edge everywhere. He is the better overall striker with more tools, and he has the grappling edge as well. Lungiambula has the power to put anybody's lights out so I give him a puncher's chance, but I don't see him winning any other way.

Antonio Arroyo (-155) vs. Deron Winn (+135): Arroyo by TKO

Give me Arroyo in this fight. He is the better and more dangerous striker, and he has a 9-inch height advantage. He should look as though he is a weight class heavier. Winn is a short and thick wrestler, and he is going to need to rack up takedowns in order to win rounds. I don't see him finishing Arroyo and I think Arroyo is the better grappler. Winn could be the guy pressing forward with higher output on the feet and mixing in takedowns to steal rounds. I don't see that being enough for him and I will take Arroyo to get a knockout.

Drako Rodriguez (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+170): Rodriguez by decision

Zahabi is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting for his job against Rodriguez, who is making his UFC debut. Zahabi has decent technical striking, and his grappling is solid too. He just doesn't strike enough and he isn't a wrestler. His biggest issue is that he isn't a high-pace fighter, and Rodriguez looks to be the guy who will be fighting at a higher pace, throwing harder shots and looking to wrestle. I think Zahabi is going to need a finish to get his hand raised, but I don't see it happening and I think he gets outworked over 15 minutes.

Tafon Nchukwi (-320) vs. Jamie Pickett (+260): Nchukwi by TKO

Nchukwi is a beast. You can see just looking at him that he has a ton of power and all his wins are knockouts in the first two rounds. He was fighting at heavyweight and now he is making the drop to 185 pounds. Pickett is big and powerful himself and he looks to be the faster guy who is lighter on his feet. I think Nchukwi by knockout is the most likely outcome, so the Nchukwi by TKO prop (if available at your sportsbook) would be the best way to bet the favorite.

Jimmy Flick (-150) vs Cody Durden (+135): Flick by submission

This should be a grappling-heavy fight. On the feet, I give the edge to Durden and he has the power and durability edge as well. Durden might be the better wrestler, but I think Flick is on a different level in the grappling department and I don't see him accepting a striking battle. I think this fight hits the mat more than once, and I'll pick Flick to lock up a submission.

Rick Glenn (-330) vs. Carlton Minus (+270): Minus by decision

Glenn is coming up from featherweight and Minus is coming down from welterweight to meet at 155 pounds. Glenn will be the taller guy, but Minus will be the stronger fighter and he has a 5-inch reach advantage. Glenn is the more experienced fighter, and he is usually the one looking to push forward and bully his opponent. But he is usually the bigger guy in his fights, and I don't see him being able to dominate any part of this battle. I don't get these odds and I think this fight should be much closer to 50-50. I see this being a back-and-forth striking match that either guy can win, so I will side with the underdog.
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None of his breakdowns look like he is about to make a play of the year.
 
DarkneT said:
Geoff Neal but he’s ‘play of the year’

Geoff steal
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I like Neal and I'd like to see him get past Thompson and eventually Usman as well but this is a particularly stiff step up for him. And then there are also some health problems for Geoff? This fight is not a lock.
 
sonhow said:
I like Neal and I'd like to see him get past Thompson and eventually Usman as well but this is a particularly stiff step up for him. And then there are also some health problems for Geoff? This fight is not a lock.
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Nah I was joking.
Seems a few of the Twitter dick heads are on Geoff and I’m like..
So you’re that confident in Geoff to do something Luque and Masvidal couldnt do?
Interesting..
Is a win over Perry that valuable? Or Camacho?
I remember Niko hitting Geoff for fun.
I also ponder what Thompson would do to any of the three mentioned, considering he beat the brakes off Luque and Mas who are two of the slickest strikers in the division.

the Pettis thing to me is one of those moments in mma where shit happens, and to be honest Thompson was WHOPPING him in that fight until Pettis threw a Hail Mary and it landed.

Tell my wife I’ve just bet the house on Stevie wonder(boy)
 
DarkneT said:
Nah I was joking.
Seems a few of the Twitter dick heads are on Geoff and I’m like..
So you’re that confident in Geoff to do something Luque and Masvidal couldnt do?
Interesting..
Is a win over Perry that valuable? Or Camacho?
I remember Niko hitting Geoff for fun.
I also ponder what Thompson would do to any of the three mentioned, considering he beat the brakes off Luque and Mas who are two of the slickest strikers in the division.

the Pettis thing to me is one of those moments in mma where shit happens, and to be honest Thompson was WHOPPING him in that fight until Pettis threw a Hail Mary and it landed.

Tell my wife I’ve just bet the house on Stevie wonder(boy)
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Also I know it was a few years back but see how susceptible Neal was to sidekicks of Kevin Holland. He walked into every kick Holland threw almost.
 
Broe. said:
Also I know it was a few years back but see how susceptible Neal was to sidekicks of Kevin Holland. He walked into every kick Holland threw almost.
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fuck it

I’m in, wonderboy let’s go daddy
 
Win:Rodriguez, Drako
Zahabi, Aiemann - Rodriguez, Drako
Win:Moraes, Marlon
Moraes, Marlon - Font, Rob
1,60
Win:Arroyo, Antonio
Winn, Deron - Arroyo, Antonio
1,55
Win:Tybura, Marcin
Tybura, Marcin - Hardy, Greg
1,95
Win: Pereira, Michel
Pereira, Michel - Williams, Khaos
1,80
Win:Thompson, Stephen
Thompson, Stephen - Neal, Geofrey
1,90

My picks and the odds of the site that I am using, feel really unsure about the Pereira fight and the Mainevent.
Moraes also didn't look too convicing in his last fight and I am kinda afraid that Hardy lands some Hail Mary Overhand or something in the first round will watch the Odds until tomorrow and how they all look at the Weigh ins.
 
I'm starting to think Perreira or Tybura is a trap. There is such clear path to win for both men and both are favored by most "experts"and the odds look good but shit just happens.
Similar to Holland knocking out Jacare from back or Chase getting a sub he had no business getting.
 
Neals the kind of guy that looks like an amazing striker to people who don't know about striking. Total lack of depth to everything he does and he's going up against one of the most layered strikers in MMA history.
 
Man, I kind of think Aldo might be a bum off his back and get KO'ed there if he gets taken down
 
2020Tracked said:
Man, I kind of think Aldo might be a bum off his back and get KO'ed there if he gets taken down
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tenor.gif
 
Jordan3399 said:
Neals the kind of guy that looks like an amazing striker to people who don't know about striking. Total lack of depth to everything he does and he's going up against one of the most layered strikers in MMA history.
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My opinion is not as strong as yours, but I do think Neal is somewhat predictable. All his weapons come from the left side. I feel like Thompson can see that and exploit it by keeping that side occupied with kicks from the outside. Also I noticed in his fight against Muhammad that Neal doesn't react to well when he receives bodyshots, which could also be an opportunity.
The thing that's clearly not in favor of Thompson is the small cage though, especially because Neal is fairly good at pressuring and cutting of the cage.
 
chemmy said:
He is stupidly short for the division, but have you seen his body type? No way in hell he’d ever be able to cut to 155lbs and it’s not laziness that’s stopping him.
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Thank you, some people just get unlucky with extra bone density and their overall build and stuff. Drives me crazy when people say DC could be a mw for example just because he's short. Deron Winn is just screwed with a shitty body type to have to fit into weight classes.
 
PuertoRican said:



@Rebel_LioN & @PuertoRican are back for the last card of the year. Enjoy.

I'll see some of you in Vegas tomorrow. <Moves>
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Nice breakdown for the Tybura-Hardy fight, I feel the same way and also think Tybura is a nice bet. One thing you didn't even mention is Hardy's shitty cardio. He was huffing and puffing a long while after his last fight against Greene, it looked quite bad. You also stated that the fight will probably stay standing, but I think Tybura should be able to get TD's pretty easily. Especially after Hardy is gassed.
 
stipeszn said:
Thank you, some people just get unlucky with extra bone density and their overall build and stuff. Drives me crazy when people say DC could be a mw for example just because he's short. Deron Winn is just screwed with a shitty body type to have to fit into weight classes.
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Bones take up a pretty small percentage of a person's overall weight (google says 15%), so a higher bone density would hardly add much to that. The 'stuff' you're talking about is sheer fat. Yes, they've got a naturally stocky build, but they're both bloated as hell and they'd both could easily drop a weightclass (possibly two) with some moderate lifestyle adjustments.
 
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