UFC Fight Night: Thompson Vs. Neal

[Combat-Betting]

Thank you, some people just get unlucky with extra bone density and their overall build and stuff. Drives me crazy when people say DC could be a mw for example just because he's short. Deron Winn is just screwed with a shitty body type to have to fit into weight classes.

"Fedor could have cut to middleweight with a little discipline"

 

[loller90278]

avoiding this fight card for betting. The most confidence i have in a fight is for Aldo, and even then I think it's 60/40.

Arroyo should also win but not going to bet him a -160

 

[Broe.]

Thank you, some people just get unlucky with extra bone density and their overall build and stuff. Drives me crazy when people say DC could be a mw for example just because he's short. Deron Winn is just screwed with a shitty body type to have to fit into weight classes.

the kind of stuff obese housewives say:''Í have tried every diet!"

 

[fonus]

Deron Winn is undersized at middleweight, no question he should make welterweight. If Rumble could make it he can too. Read some study about skeletal build and bone density and the variance only amounts to a couple kilos.

 

[GoatArtemLobov]

Deron Winn is undersized at middleweight, no question he should make welterweight. If Rumble could make it he can too. Read some study about skeletal build and bone density and the variance only amounts to a couple kilos.

Yyeah, but, it's gonna sound like broscience, but everyone has a "natural" frame that is smaller or bigger, it just hasn't to do with height.
I get Cormier is a bit overweight but there is no way he could cut down to 135 like O'Malley, despite them being the same height.
Same thing could be said about Luis Pena and Arlovski. Height matters a lot but you have "natural" strong guys.
From a height standpoint, Winn is a BW at best, but I think his real weightclass would be 170, he is just a thick boy.

 

[piglord]

no value on arroyo -160 imo, but value on his ko line at +500.

 

[fonus]

Yyeah, but, it's gonna sound like broscience, but everyone has a "natural" frame that is smaller or bigger, it just hasn't to do with height.
I get Cormier is a bit overweight but there is no way he could cut down to 135 like O'Malley, despite them being the same height.
Same thing could be said about Luis Pena and Arlovski. Height matters a lot but you have "natural" strong guys.
From a height standpoint, Winn is a BW at best, but I think his real weightclass would be 170, he is just a thick boy.

True, people carry different amounts of muscle also.

 

[PuertoRican]

Nice breakdown for the Tybura-Hardy fight, I feel the same way and also think Tybura is a nice bet. One thing you didn't even mention is Hardy's shitty cardio. He was huffing and puffing a long while after his last fight against Greene, it looked quite bad. You also stated that the fight will probably stay standing, but I think Tybura should be able to get TD's pretty easily. Especially after Hardy is gassed.

Yeah, I forgot to mention it. I don't write stuff down, so I sometimes forget stuff.

I can't wait for this card.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Geoff Neal (-115) vs. Stephen Thompson (-105): Neal by TKO

Geoff Neal is the real deal. He is one of my favorite strikers currently and this is a fight that should stay on the feet. Neal is more likely to look for takedowns, but I don't think he will need them. This should be a karate fighter versus boxer matchup, with Thompson being the one looking to stay on the outside, pick his shots and try to stay in kicking range. Neal has great, powerful kicks as well, but he should not be looking to play Thompson's game. Neal should be pushing him backward and taking the kicking game out of it. If he is pressuring Thompson heavily, I think he gets a stoppage at some point in this fight. I think Neal's hands are just too good and we have seen Thompson dropped by guys like a prime Tyron Woodley and Anthony Pettis, both of whom likely aren't on the same level as Neal is now.

Jose Aldo (-140) vs. Marlon Vera (+120): Aldo by decision

Aldo's best days are behind him and Vera is in the prime of his career and knocking on the door for a shot at the title. Both guys have solid grappling games, but I don't think we see a lot of takedown attempts and this should mainly take place on the feet. I still give Aldo the edge in the striking and I agree with the line making him a small favorite. I think this will be back-and-forth and close on volume. I think Aldo is the more technical and powerful striker, so I am going to lean with him.

Michel Pereira (-120) vs. Khaos Williams (+100): Pereira by decision

Williams is coming off two huge early KOs, so I expected him to be the slight favorite. Pereira has shown big power too and he gained attention before Williams did. He has shown improvement since then in putting a complete, dominant fight together in his last outing and getting a submission. Williams has power and could get a knockout, but he doesn't have the "touch of death," so not every punch he lands will rattle his opponent. I will take Pereira because I think he can put it all together and win in more ways than just by knockout.

Marlon Moraes (-145) vs. Rob Font (+125): Font by decision

This should be a fun striking match. Moraes is the more powerful striker, and his leg kicks could be a big factor. Font is the taller and longer guy and he is more of a volume puncher who should be throwing and landing more shots. He hits heavy as well and could get a knockout of his own, but Moraes has more one-shot power. Moraes also is more dangerous on the mat, but I don't see either guy having a grappling-heavy game plan. I think Font is a decent underdog pick and I think he can win this fight on volume alone.

Greg Hardy (-120) vs. Marcin Tybura (+100): Tybura by decision

This is a big step up for Hardy. If he can win, he likely headed toward a top-10 ranking. He is the more athletic, powerful, durable and faster fighter. Tybura is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter and, if his chin holds up, I like him to get the win. I think he can keep this fight close on the feet, if not even win the striking battles. However, if I were his coach, I would have him looking for takedowns because if he can land one each round, I think he can keep Hardy on his back long enough to win the rounds. He could also get a submission or stoppage if he has more of a grappling-heavy game plan.

Gillian Robertson (-110) vs. Talia Santos (-110): Santos by TKO

Robertson is purely a grappler and all she will be looking to do is grab Santos and drag her to the mat. That is going to be her game plan in every fight and, if it works, she has a decent chance at finding a submission. Santos is going to look to stuff those takedowns and, if she can, she is going to dominate the striking and probably get a TKO. I think Santos' edge on the feet is bigger than Robertson's edge on the mat, so I am going to lean with her to get a finish.

Anthony Pettis (-230) vs. Alex Morono (+195): Morono by decision

Pettis is the more talented all-around fighter. He is the more technical striker and he has more power. He is probably the better grappler as well, but they are both solid grapplers. Pettis is on the downside of his career and Morono looks like he is in his prime. I think Pettis probably looks better early in this fight but, if Morono has the volume like he did in his last fight where he landed 176 significant strikes, I don't think Pettis can keep up. At these odds, I have to lean with the underdog, and I think he can win Rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised.

Belal Muhammad (-360) vs. Dhiego Lima (+300): Muhammad by decision

Muhammad is my most confident pick on the card. He should be the one leading the dance, pushing forward and landing more strikes while the fight is on the feet. He is also the better wrestler and he will probably be mixing in takedowns as well. Lima might have more one-punch power, and maybe he is the better submission grappler as well. I just don't see him getting the knockout and I don't think he can submit Muhammad from the bottom, where he will likely be if this fight hits the mat.

Sijara Eubanks (-165) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+145): Eubanks by decision

This is a close fight on the feet, and I expect it to go back and forth. I think this is 50-50 on the feet and I really don't see either fighter dominating the striking. I give Eubanks the edge on the mat, so I agree with her being the favorite. I will side with her as well because that is the only real edge that I see. This fight might not even hit the mat, but I see the striking being so close that one takedown and some ground-and-pound could steal a round for Eubanks.

Karl Roberson (-265) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+225): Roberson by TKO

Aside from power, I give Roberson the edge everywhere. He is the better overall striker with more tools, and he has the grappling edge as well. Lungiambula has the power to put anybody's lights out so I give him a puncher's chance, but I don't see him winning any other way.

Antonio Arroyo (-155) vs. Deron Winn (+135): Arroyo by TKO

Give me Arroyo in this fight. He is the better and more dangerous striker, and he has a 9-inch height advantage. He should look as though he is a weight class heavier. Winn is a short and thick wrestler, and he is going to need to rack up takedowns in order to win rounds. I don't see him finishing Arroyo and I think Arroyo is the better grappler. Winn could be the guy pressing forward with higher output on the feet and mixing in takedowns to steal rounds. I don't see that being enough for him and I will take Arroyo to get a knockout.

Drako Rodriguez (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+170): Rodriguez by decision

Zahabi is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting for his job against Rodriguez, who is making his UFC debut. Zahabi has decent technical striking, and his grappling is solid too. He just doesn't strike enough and he isn't a wrestler. His biggest issue is that he isn't a high-pace fighter, and Rodriguez looks to be the guy who will be fighting at a higher pace, throwing harder shots and looking to wrestle. I think Zahabi is going to need a finish to get his hand raised, but I don't see it happening and I think he gets outworked over 15 minutes.

Tafon Nchukwi (-320) vs. Jamie Pickett (+260): Nchukwi by TKO

Nchukwi is a beast. You can see just looking at him that he has a ton of power and all his wins are knockouts in the first two rounds. He was fighting at heavyweight and now he is making the drop to 185 pounds. Pickett is big and powerful himself and he looks to be the faster guy who is lighter on his feet. I think Nchukwi by knockout is the most likely outcome, so the Nchukwi by TKO prop (if available at your sportsbook) would be the best way to bet the favorite.

Jimmy Flick (-150) vs Cody Durden (+135): Flick by submission

This should be a grappling-heavy fight. On the feet, I give the edge to Durden and he has the power and durability edge as well. Durden might be the better wrestler, but I think Flick is on a different level in the grappling department and I don't see him accepting a striking battle. I think this fight hits the mat more than once, and I'll pick Flick to lock up a submission.

Rick Glenn (-330) vs. Carlton Minus (+270): Minus by decision

Glenn is coming up from featherweight and Minus is coming down from welterweight to meet at 155 pounds. Glenn will be the taller guy, but Minus will be the stronger fighter and he has a 5-inch reach advantage. Glenn is the more experienced fighter, and he is usually the one looking to push forward and bully his opponent. But he is usually the bigger guy in his fights, and I don't see him being able to dominate any part of this battle. I don't get these odds and I think this fight should be much closer to 50-50. I see this being a back-and-forth striking match that either guy can win, so I will side with the underdog.

Thanks for sharing as usual

 

[Hashish]

Thank you, some people just get unlucky with extra bone density and their overall build and stuff. Drives me crazy when people say DC could be a mw for example just because he's short. Deron Winn is just screwed with a shitty body type to have to fit into weight classes.

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You sure about that, chief?

 

[2020Tracked]

Okay, so what fight has Aldo looked good off his back in the past five years?

 

[BigSteve]

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You sure about that, chief?

19 years ago......

 

[2020Tracked]

14 fights back on as Christos Giagos replaces Glenn.

Back to 13, Drako/Zahabi cancelled

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Back to 13, Drako/Zahabi cancelled

Damn

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I've made 4 bets so far, about 600 deep. 2 are parlays.

Just added this, because 4 other books I use, he's -110. If he moves to +125 so be it, but I think this line is more than fair.



With the parlays, my exposure to Tybura will be close to 500$.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

The main card starts at 4pm west coast? Damn. Early card.

 

[Spath]

The main card starts at 4pm west coast? Damn. Early card.

2 am for me. Last one started at 5 am



For obvious reasons I can only watch a few cards a year live. Best of luck with the bets, gentlemen! I hope all the fights deliver and we get to start xmas the right way... The Just Bleed God way!

 

[Spath]

Okay, so what fight has Aldo looked good off his back in the past five years?

I think it’s more of a question that who are the fighters that have dominated Aldo on the ground, ever. Who are those? He has fought some great wrestlers, some really tough grapplers (Edgar and Mendes a couple times each, you could say prime versions too). None of them could really even get Aldo to the mat and if they did Aldo pretty much sprang just right back up. They couldn’t do much to him on the ground.

In case you haven’t been watching Aldo for a long time, I’ll tell you what he’s known for. He’s known for his GOAT level takedown defense probably almost as much as his deadly muay thai skills. He has very strong hips, he’s very explosive and understands angles and timing very well, frames his opponent very well when they are trying to take him down.

On the ground we haven’t seen him that much, because of what I just wrote and he chooses to keep the fight standing. What we have seen and what we know is that Aldo is a legit BJJ black belt and his grappling makes his style work, makes him a complete, well rounded fighter.

I have a hard time seeing Vera getting Aldo down and keeping him there, inflicting damage on the ground. This is my opinion and how I see it based on the last 20 or so Aldo fights that I’ve watched.

 

[Martialbeef]

Aldo in the empty Apex landing blows and verbally confirming those blows to the judges = Aldo dec

 

[2020Tracked]

I think it’s more of a question that who are the fighters that have dominated Aldo on the ground, ever. Who are those? He has fought some great wrestlers, some really tough grapplers (Edgar and Mendes a couple times each, you could say prime versions too). None of them could really even get Aldo to the mat and if they did Aldo pretty much sprang just right back up. They couldn’t do much to him on the ground.

In case you haven’t been watching Aldo for a long time, I’ll tell you what he’s known for. He’s known for his GOAT level takedown defense probably almost as much as his deadly muay thai skills. He has very strong hips, he’s very explosive and understands angles and timing very well, frames his opponent very well when they are trying to take him down.

On the ground we haven’t seen him that much, because of what I just wrote and he chooses to keep the fight standing. What we have seen and what we know is that Aldo is a legit BJJ black belt and his grappling makes his style work, makes him a complete, well rounded fighter.

I have a hard time seeing Vera getting Aldo down and keeping him there, inflicting damage on the ground. This is my opinion and how I see it based on the last 20 or so Aldo fights that I’ve watched.

I never said anything about his take down defence, I know all about Aldo and all about his amazing takedown defence.

I said he may be a can off of his back, and said in the past five years.

The fact he has spent so little time over the years in the position probably means he doesn't spend much time training it, because the second Yan got on top Aldo looked panicked and almost got KO'ed everytime.

Yan ends up on top at the end of the first round, Aldo gets beat up and almost finished and is saved by the bell. Yan gets on top at the end of the 4th, the same again, and then at the end of the 5th, Yan again gets on top and beats the shit out of Aldo who just covers up and gets finished.

Finished by Holloway twice in a row, both times when Holloway gets on top and just easily rains down ground and pound, Aldo doesn't really show any defensive acumen. He just gets his legs thrown to the side and then he puts his hands up to his head as he gets pummelled.

How can you watch 20 of his fights and not see this? Again, not talking about his take down defence, I'm talking about him when he is on his back.

Again, him being a BJJ black belt means nothing, it's just words until you see it put to use. When has he shown the skills of a BJJ black belt in the past five years? He hasn't