Watched tape on Shevchenko/Pena. Typical striker vs grappler match up which means that the fight will be decided in the clinch IMO.
Pena's striking is very sloppy and kind of reminds me of Brunson rushing in except the fact that she knows that she has to get it to the ground. In the clinch she is pretty strong but did have a bit of trouble with Jessica Eye. On the ground she is very slick, even if she ends up on the bottom. From the top she is very aggressive. Her cardio seems to be pretty good too, 3 rounds grapple heavy fight with Zingano and looked fine after.
Shevchenko is obviously the better striker and a good clinch game too. Kept clinching with Kaufman and beating her there despite being the better striker. Great cardio and can keep the same output for 5 rounds as seen against Holm. The concern with her is the lack of punching power and the her game off her back. Against both Kaufman and Nunes she seemed pretty clueless when takendown and couldn't get up until her opponents went for a finish at the end of the round and got careless. Her top game is pretty good though, took Kaufman down and troubled Nunes (who was gassed at that point). Her clinch downs are quite effective too.
Overall, I think I have to favour Pena here. I think she can bumrush Shevchenko and clinch up. Although it will be very close in the clinch I think Pena's size and athleticism give her the slight edge. If it Pena ends up on top then she is very likely to keep that position until the end of the round since Shevchenko isn't great at getting up from the bottom. Shevchenko can win the fight by avoiding the clinch and catching Pena coming in, somewhat like Holm did against Rousey. I just think that if the fight ends up on the ground it is likely to look like Nunes/Shevchenko without Pena gassing out.
Interested to see what the odds are on fight doesn't go the distance and Pena ITD are.
Would love to hear what you guys think.