UFC on ESPN+ 22 Blachowicz vs Jacare

Haha I'm the biggest Craig mark in the world and have bet small money on him here knowing full well he is so fucking terrible and is going to lose probably. DO NOT parlay Craig. DO NOT play him heavy. Shogun might be shot, but he also might not be. A shot Shogun can still win. A non-shot Shogun WILL win.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Haha I'm the biggest Craig mark in the world and have bet small money on him here knowing full well he is so fucking terrible and is going to lose probably. DO NOT parlay Craig. DO NOT play him heavy. Shogun might be shot, but he also might not be. A shot Shogun can still win. A non-shot Shogun WILL win.
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He’s definitely shot.

but yea he can still beat Craig

Whoever is paying almost -300 for him is crazy
 
Have the casual public moved the Craig line to where it's currently at?
 
ill800 said:
Shogun has been rocked in almost all of his recent fights

no reason to think Paul cant hurt him striking
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Craig's striking is absolutely horrible though, Shogun has a shaky chin now, but can Craig touch it?
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Craig's striking is absolutely horrible though, Shogun has a shaky chin now, but can Craig touch it?
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Have you watched shogun recently? His reaction time is shot.

He’s very predictable and he’s lost most of that speed that made him the fighter he was.

a gust of wind might rock him these days.
 
Info: Veronica Macedo are have very hard weight cut.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Haha I'm the biggest Craig mark in the world and have bet small money on him here knowing full well he is so fucking terrible and is going to lose probably. DO NOT parlay Craig. DO NOT play him heavy. Shogun might be shot, but he also might not be. A shot Shogun can still win. A non-shot Shogun WILL win.
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angry-dark-stare.png
 
If anyone hasn't seen the face offs.
 
ill800 said:
He’s definitely shot.

but yea he can still beat Craig

Whoever is paying almost -300 for him is crazy
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I don't like paying much more than -200 but I think Shogun handles Craig. Shogun is a veteran and I think he has settled in quite well to being an older fighter. His showings against Anderson, Villante, and Pedro were all decent. I would group Pedro together with Craig as being similar in style. They are both super aggressive and are looking for an early finish/sub. Shogun is a real fighter tho and is going in there to fight 3 hard rounds.
 
Small confidence increase for Turman, Perez looks a little cocky to say the least. Liking the stalwart look of Muniz as well.
Nice suit for Oliveira not sure about the foot wear but he looks huge next to Gordon.
Speaking of size Craig looking down on Rua interesting I hate Craigs striking and haven't finished my homework on Rua though.
@Vir I have to agree Souza is looking thick wonder if this is some of the reason for the line movement earlier?
Tempted to take a stab we know Weidmans chin was about gone, that and Rockhold always had bad strike defense. Souza may be losing a step but he has always seemed like a solid dog
 
Jacere by cardio? I'm rusty on that Hermanson bout but it seemed like Jack gave up round r3 maybe?
Either way seemed like he took a round off to save some energy and out work Souza in the late game, not like he steam rolled him. Probably waiting until the actually weigh ins at least but I'm starting to wonder if that therapy did Souza more good than I thought he looks healthy at the least.
 
Sono07 said:
Jacere by cardio? I'm rusty on that Hermanson bout but it seemed like Jack gave up round r3 maybe?
Either way seemed like he took a round off to save some energy and out work Souza in the late game, not like he steam rolled him. Probably waiting until the actually weigh ins at least but I'm starting to wonder if that therapy did Souza more good than I thought he looks healthy at the least.
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I don't think it was a cardio thing for Herm. Whenever Jacare went to the body Herm slowed down a lot, but whenever that happened Jacare would go back to head hunting and let Herm recover from the bdoy shots and get back into the fight.

You can see it in the stats, Jacare won R3 after landing 9 body shots but then only went for 3 in R4 and let Herm recover and take the round. Then he went back to them in R5 landing 10 and took that round as well.

Hated watching it live as Jacare could have probably got a late TKO or clear decision if he just had a bit of fight IQ striking.
 
ill800 said:
He’s definitely shot.

but yea he can still beat Craig

Whoever is paying almost -300 for him is crazy
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I'm betting on Jan to win - nvm i changed my mind and im avoiding this bet
Shogun to win inside the distance, I don't think Paul Craig is going to last 3 rounds with ol Shogun
 
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ill800 said:
People really writing off jacare and using Jan as a parlay piece?

he had one bad fight vs Hermanson and now Jan blachowicz is going to roll him?
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I think we have seen a trend of MWs that aren't doing well and getting tuned up at 205. And MWs that are older and have battle damage.
 
Podcast for the card

I'm betting and confident in Cortez, Brown, Perez and Arroyo.

Like the value on Craig and Gordon too. I explain all my thoughts on these in the podcast, time stamps are available.
 
Jordan3399 said:
I don't think it was a cardio thing for Herm. Whenever Jacare went to the body Herm slowed down a lot, but whenever that happened Jacare would go back to head hunting and let Herm recover from the bdoy shots and get back into the fight.

You can see it in the stats, Jacare won R3 after landing 9 body shots but then only went for 3 in R4 and let Herm recover and take the round. Then he went back to them in R5 landing 10 and took that round as well.

Hated watching it live as Jacare could have probably got a late TKO or clear decision if he just had a bit of fight IQ striking.
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I need to go back through that one but I agree he seemed to be head hunting and chasing a finsh. Didn't he get dropped in r1 after trying to blitz Jack against the cage? It was definitely close I like Souza's fight IQ but he didn't seem to have a great gameplan there.
He shouldn't have to worry about Jan bringing the same volume/pace here though. Looking forward to the weigh-ins, at dog odds unless his chin is shot I don't think Jacere goes down easily in front of his home crowd.
 
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