UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson Official Bets

[Bastaille]

Cutelaba 600$ to win 540$

Lineker 400$ to win 290$

Jandiroba 150$ to win 140$

Arlovski 180$ to win 225$

Mcgee 1k to win 580$

Gonzalez 180$ to win 240$

Parlay

Evloev/cutelaba 650$ to win 790$

Mcgee/Roosevelt 500$ to win 500$

 

[Vir_Ars]

4u McGee 1.60
2u Gonzalez 2.25
2u Mikes 2.95
4u Lineker 1.62
4u Cuteleba 1.95
4u Hermansson 2.80

I think I'm gonna play Esquibel and Esparza as underdogs, just because i love WMMA underdog money, a lot of pass fights, but i maybe will live play some of that fights, I like Perry, Saunders, Arlovski, but not to put money now in.
GL.

 

[chemmy]

Esparza risk 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Lineker risk 1.35 to win 1 unit
Gonzalez risk 1 unit to win 1.37 units
Sakai risk 1.41 units to win 1 unit
Hill 5.3 units to win 2 units

 

[Soccer Steve]

Hermansson ML - 2u for 2.73u (+135/+160)
Hermansson Round 4 - 0.125u for 2.38u
Hermansson Round 5 - 0.125u for 3.13u

Hardy ML - 5u for 1.89u (-265)
Smoliakov Submission - 0.3u for 2.5u (+800)

Ion ML - 3u for 2.01u (-140/-147/-155)
Ion KO - 0.38u for 0.69u (+185)
Teixeira ML - 1u for 0.85u (-116/-120)

Virna ML - 3u for 3.3u (+110)
Draw - 0.125u for 7.5u (+6000)

Arlovski ML - 1u for 1.2u (+120)
Sakai ML - 2u for 1.38u (-140/-150)
Sakai Decision - 0.5u for 1.15u (+210/+242)
Sakai Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.34u (+1075)
FGTD - 1u for 0.69u (-145)

Lineker ML - 5u for 3.54u (-130/-145/-150/-155)
Lineker Round 2 - 0.125u for 0.81u (+650)
Lineker Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.25u (+1000)

Gonzalez ML - 2.5u for 3.24u (+125/+130/+133)
Gonzalez Submission - 0.25u for 2.73u (+1092)

McGee ML - 2u for 1.08u (-185)
McGee Decision - 1u for 1.3u (+130)

Roberts ML - 3u for 0.8u (-375)

Perry ML - 1.5u for 2.45u (+160/+165)
Perry KO - 0.38u for 1.09u (+290)
Perry Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.25u (+1100)

Sato ML - 2u for 0.95u (-210)
Saunders Submission - 0.125u for 0.59u (+475)

Hill + Roberts - 1u for 0.42u
Musaev (KSW) + Hardy - 2u for 1.44u


Should be done. Not very happy with my action to be honest, feels a little stretched thin. Line movement was unpredictable and hurt, but I'm hardly alone there at least. As much as I think Hardy smashes him, I'm definitely going to buy that down drastically, if not free-roll it altogether and be done with it. Just waiting on KSW to see my options. Bought down Ion ML to 2u. Hedged Arlovski and Sato. Almost expect to lose on Hermansson, Gonzalez, Perry, and Virna. Gonna have to be ready with live bet to get me out of some of these I think.

Good luck out there.

edit: addons

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I've been a bit lazy and haven't posted bets lately, will try to do better! I'm not in love with too many spots on this card. So far I have:

Lineker @1.68, 2u

Souza @1.60, 4u

Hardy @1.37, 5u (After having lost money betting Hardy against Crowder, I feel like a bit of an idiot betting him again. He showed a lack of experience against Crowder, but, even though he was slowing down, he was winning that fight. With less jitters, I just can't see him lose to Smolakov. I figure that the odds are closer than they should be because people who bet Hardy last time will be hesitant to do so again)


Having heard Schaub hype Sandhagen on several occasions, saying something like "guys, if you want to make some money bet on this kid", I knew I was going to try to make some dollars betting against him. This seems like the time to do it! Starting halfway, hoping for the line to improve (if casual bettors heed Schaub's advice, some money might come in on Sandhagen closer to the fight).

I'm very tempted to bet Virna Jandiroba as a dog, but all the biases seem to line up the wrong way (Esperza being dominated and finished in her last fight, Jandiroba being undefeated).

Added:
2u on Lineker @1.68, never saw much of that line change on my book unfortunately...
1u Souza KO @6.00

 

[Sadistics]

Souza -159 $2000
Souza ITD -161 $300

Hardy/Smolyakov DNGTD -305 $305
Hardy/Smolyakov U1 -121 $150
Hardy/Smolyakov U1minute +800 $25
Hardy RD1 +110 $100

Oliveira/Perry O1 -175 $175

Cutelaba -139 $500

Lineker -135 $570
Lineker NSC -119 $300

Sato -190 $250
Sato ITD -125 $125

Arlovski +127 $200
Arlovski DEC +220 $100
Arlovski/Sakai GTD -130 $200

Jandiroba +121 $900
Esparza DEC +145 $100

Gonzalez +140 $100
Gonzalez/Miller DNGTD -185 $185

Hill -164 $2000

McGee -117 $1500
McGee/Lima GTD -150 $250
Lima NSC +117 $250


Want to add to Lineker closer to evens, and may further reduce Jandiroba risk. I couldn't resist reducing Hill risk with the massive freeroll opportunity and cardio concerns. Interested in a couple handicaps when they release.

Regrets:
Touching the Cutelaba fight
Touching the Hardy fight
Playing more than just ML on McGee
Not waiting for the O1.5 in Perry/Oliveira

 

[Martialbeef]

Gil Burns
Court McGee
Arlovski fngtd
Lineker fngtd
Hardy
Souza

Went 20 on this one for returns of roughly 400.

 

[nebulousned]

$30 on jacare to return $45
$20 on Hardy to return $28
$40 on Arlovski to return $88
$20 on Lineker to return $33.40
$20 on McGee to return $36.00

Increased my bets on Arlovski and Jacare, so these are all final bets above. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about this card. I refrained from touching the Glover and Perry fights cause I'm trying to be a better bettor. If I suck this time as well I'll have to have a long hard look in the mirror.

 

[2bet]

1u plays:
Burns
Miller
Arlovski
Saunders/... ITD + Hardy/... ITD + Jacare/... ITD
Lineker + Jacare
Cutelaba + Rory

freerolling on Jandiroba

small card for me.
Sorry I don't have notes on the odds at hand, I got terrible odds on Lineker and Cutelaba, the others are average, nothing special

 

[NorthernLights]

I've been feeling very confident in Jacare since the fight was announced but I'll happily admit that when I saw that first @Sadistics post without any bets on Souza I was a bit shook.

Not because I have to tail him but it made me feel like I might have missed something crucial...

 

[theTKDguy]

Lineker 3u for 1.8 u
Perry 1u for 1.5u
Arlovski 1u for 1.3u
Texeira vs cutelaba fdgtd 4u for 1u
Gonzales,sakai cutelaba parlay 1u for 5u
Roberts, souza, tex vs cut u.1.5 parlay 1u for 1.2u
Roberts, lineker, souza, hardy parlay 1u for 2u

 

[Smoothie]

5u Jacare -205
4u Lineker -145
2u Arlovski +120
.5u Gonzalez +115
3u McGee -190
.5u Hardy ko -255
2u Cutelaba ko +130
1u Perry itd +235

 

[t6p]

1.35u Lineker -135
0.1u Lineker SUB +1500

Looking like that'll be it for me. Liked a few other spots but didn't get the prices I wanted. Sadly, I had Glover at +170 I believe the last time he was scheduled to fight Cutelaba, but I can't play him at these odds.

 

[null]

UFN 150 on ESPN+ 8 Risk $6,786.62

Ronaldo Souza (-182) vs Jack Hermansson $455.00 for $250.00
Ronaldo Souza (-184) vs Jack Hermansson $184.00 for $100.00
Ronaldo Souza (-185) vs Jack Hermansson $462.50 for $250.00
Ronlado Souza (-185) vs Jack Hermansson $370.00 for $200.00
Ronaldo Souza (-192) vs Jack Hermansson $384.62 for $200.00
Ronaldo Souza wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+350) $35.00 for $122.50
Ronaldo Souza wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Ronaldo Souza wins in round 2 (+300) $30.00 for $90.00
Ronaldo Souza/Jack Hermansson won’t start round 4 (-359) $359.00 for $100.00

Greg Hardy -3½ points (-285) vs Dmitry Smoliakov $285.00 for $100.00
Greg Hardy wins in round 1 (+100) $75.00 for $75.00
Greg Hardy wins in round 1 (+115) ~$26.50 for ~$30.48
Dmitry Smoliakov wins in round 2 (+1100) $20.00 for $220.00
Dmitry Smoliakov wins in round 3 (+1750) $20.00 for $350.00
Greg Hardy/Dmitry Smoliakov Under 1½ (-210) $210.00 for $100.00
Greg Hardy/Dmitry Smoliakov fight ends in first 60 seconds of round 1 (+950) ~$26.50 for ~$251.75

Alex Oliveira (-156) vs Mike Perry $312.50 for $200.00
Alex Oliveira (-159) vs Mike Perry $397.50 for $250.00
Alex Oliveira wins by submission (+195) $75.00 for $146.25
Alex Oliveira wins in round 2 (+475) $25.00 for $118.75
Alex Oliveira wins in round 3 (+1000) $15.00 for $150.00
Alex Oliveira/Mike Perry Over 1½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00

Ion Cutelaba (+107) vs Glover Teixeira $100.00 for $107.00
Ion Cutelaba (+105) vs Glover Teixeira $100.00 for $105.00
Glover Teixeira wins by TKO/KO (+775) $30.00 for $232.50

John Lineker (-130) vs Cory Sandhagen $325.00 for $250.00
John Lineker (-140) vs Cory Sandhagen $280.00 for $200.00
John Lineker wins by TKO/KO (+240) $50.00 for $120.00
John Lineker wins in round 3 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00

Roosevelt Roberts/Thomas Gifford Under 1½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Takashi Sato/Ben Saunders Under 1½ (-117) $117.00 for $100.00

Andrei Arlovski (+130) vs Augusto Sakai $100.00 for $130.00
Andrei Arlovski wins by decision or technical decision (+210) $50.00 for $105.00

Carla Esparza (+107) vs Virna Jandiroba $100.00 for $107.00
Carla Esparza (+105) vs Virna Jandiroba $100.00 for $105.00

Gilbert Burns/Mike Davis Over 1½ (-127) $63.50 for $50.00

Jason Gonzalez (+125) vs Jim Miller $100.00 for $125.00
Jason Gonzalez/Jim Miller Over 1½ (-136) $136.00 for $100.00

Angela Hill/Jodie Esquibel goes 3 round distance (-425) $170.00 for $40.00

Court McGee (-150) vs Dhiego Lima $300.00 for $200.00
Court McGee (-171) vs Dhiego Lima $342.00 for $200.00
Court McGee wins by 3 round decision (+130) $75.00 for $97.50

Parlay:
Angela Hill (-535) vs Jodie Esquibel + Roosevelt Roberts (-431) vs Thomas Gifford $220.00 for $101.71

 

[hugdeeznuts]

Perry
Jacare by submission
Glover
Lineker
Saunders
Arlovski
Carla
Burns itd
Miller
Roosevelt/Hill/Hardy
Mcgee

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

3.5u on McGee ML at average of -150
3.7u on Sakai ML at -140
1.3u on Sakai by decision at +242
3.2u on Cutelaba at average of -114

If McGee hits, I am putting most of the profits into a certain play...

Edit-

McGee misses, but I'm putting another 1.5u on Sakai ML, even at -155.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

here are my picks sorry for late post all EASY MONEY BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lima-Dec(+142)
Esquibel-Dec(+415)
Gonzales-Sub2(+115)
Burns-Wins by Dec(+385)
Jandiroba-Wins by dec(+200)
Sakai-Wins by KO(+211)
Sato- Wins in rd 2(+425)
Roberts-Wins by sub(+102)
Lineker-Wins by dec(+215)
Texeria-Wins by KO(+525)
Oliveria-Wins by Sub(+185)
Hardy Smolkiaov- NO Bet I like Hardy KO rd 1 though
Souza-Wins by sub(+125)

Lock them in now All easy money BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I also like these event props not really Like lol but good odds for little money high payout 25$ on each!!!!!!!! 1 IS BOUND TO HIT THATS ALL I NEED
1- Fight ends in KO +3475
2- Fights end in KO+1079
8- Fights end in KO +2185
Realistically I see 4 fights ending in KO not great odds

0- Fights end in sub+3300
6- Fights end in Sub+1375
7- Fights end in Sub+3925
Realistically I see 4 fights ending in Sub

1- Fight goes to a Dec+8175
2- fights goes to a dec+1783
8- Fights goes to a dec+1400
Realistically I see 5 fights going to a dec

 

[mposhtkouhi]

I got Lima+121 sucks could of had him+142

 

[mposhtkouhi]

close rd 1-0 Lima

 

[Doc R]

-10U. Would have been up 10U min with a Jacare win depending on method of victory. Didn't wanna hedge my parlays