UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson Official Bets

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

3.5u on McGee ML at average of -150
3.7u on Sakai ML at -140
1.3u on Sakai by decision at +242
3.2u on Cutelaba at average of -114

If McGee hits, I am putting most of the profits into a certain play...

Edit-

McGee misses, but I'm putting another 1.5u on Sakai ML, even at -155.

In live-betting, I put
0.7u on Esparza at -140 after round 2 (cashed, for the 0.5u profit)
3u on Arlovski at -180 after round 2 (sure he had won the first two, and wanted to hedge what I thought would be a huge loss)
0.5u on Hermansson at +180 after round 3 (cashed for the 0.9 profit)

After a crazy up-and-down night with McGee and Cutelaba disappointing, and Sakai winning the robbery, I end up -1.4u.

Don't mind the McGee bet (he looked like half the fighter he was in the victory against Garcia, with completely shot reactions and speed, and completely forgetting how to wrestle, and still ALMOST won) or the loss on the Moldovan Madman, who nearly had Teixeira finished multiple times in round 2 only to show far more impressively awful cardio in 2019 than he ever did back in 2016.

The Sakai bet? I thought I had a read that Arlovski's reactions were completely shot, and maybe they were, but he executed the perfect gameplan while Sakai thought like an absolute retard, including his imbecilic southpaw stance in round 1 and a lack of kicks, his bread-and-butter. Happens a lot between old veterans and younger fighters. Maybe I should have gone slightly lighter, but on the flipside, when you have a powerful read, you have to gofr it.

Think I'm really starting to get the hang of live-betting though, and might start betting a little more heavily in good spots.

On to next week!

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Weird ass night lol went up and down

Respect to Jack. He proved us all wrong. I jumped off his hype train too early haha but I still believe Jacare could have beaten him. He turned up way too late. Had to live bet Jack to reduce my Jacare loss, also hit an untracked parlay for +1u. I regret not betting Jack after round 3. He was at 3.75 while he was up 2-1.

Lost something between 1-2 units in total. Should have bet more on Glover because I was pretty confident in him. On to the next one.

 

[ApplesVild]

Hermansion £30 for £75

Lineker £10 for £16

Glover £10 for £22

Sakai £10 for £16

Brazilian Cowboy £5 for £7.50

Jandiroba £5 for £10

Bought out of my play on Ion, he has shit take down defence, gasses hard after a round and has no ground game. If Glover can survive the first 3/4 minutes he kills Ion with the grappling and ground game.

Picked Sandhagen in a few fights nkt poseerwho'll posted when I'm sober tomorrow, small profits madd

 

[Sadistics]

Souza -159 $2000
Souza ITD -161 $300

Hardy/Smolyakov DNGTD -305 $305
Hardy/Smolyakov U1 -121 $150
Hardy/Smolyakov U1minute +800 $25
Hardy RD1 +110 $100

Oliveira/Perry O1 -175 $175

Cutelaba -139 $500

Lineker -135 $570
Lineker NSC -119 $300

Sato -190 $250
Sato ITD -125 $125

Arlovski +127 $200
Arlovski DEC +220 $100
Arlovski/Sakai GTD -130 $200

Jandiroba +121 $900
Esparza DEC +145 $100

Gonzalez +140 $100
Gonzalez/Miller DNGTD -185 $185

Hill -164 $2000

McGee -117 $1500
McGee/Lima GTD -150 $250
Lima NSC +117 $250


Want to add to Lineker closer to evens, and may further reduce Jandiroba risk. I couldn't resist reducing Hill risk with the massive freeroll opportunity and cardio concerns. Interested in a couple handicaps when they release.

Regrets:
Touching the Cutelaba fight
Touching the Hardy fight
Playing more than just ML on McGee
Not waiting for the O1.5 in Perry/Oliveira

-$5326, or near 11u. Absolutely brutal night, was on the wrong side of every split decision, including +350 Piccolotti in Bellator which was the biggest robbery of the night. Avoided chasing for the longest time, but was so confident in Jacare and my units are near half what they should be so I upped the ML bet to 3500. I honestly didn't see a path for Hermansson, extremely impressed, but hard to appreciate these great breakout performances when betting. Hats off to Hermansson bettors, especially @Soccer Steve

Was less than 15k away from the 100k BR goal before tonight. Bit of a setback but hopeful I get there by summer.

 

[Bastaille]

Cutelaba 600$ to win 540$

Lineker 400$ to win 290$

Jandiroba 150$ to win 140$

Arlovski 180$ to win 225$

Mcgee 1k to win 580$

Gonzalez 180$ to win 240$

Parlay

Evloev/cutelaba 650$ to win 790$

Mcgee/Roosevelt 500$ to win 500$

What a shitty night, thank god for livebetting hermansson, sandhagen, burns and texeira to minimize my lost (-1.5k).
Ready for the next one

 

[Sadistics]

Look at this shit, robberies that were a combined 4k swing with Arlovski LBs

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

-$5326, or near 11u. Absolutely brutal night, was on the wrong side of every split decision, including +350 Piccolotti in Bellator which was the biggest robbery of the night. Avoided chasing for the longest time, but was so confident in Jacare and my units are near half what they should be so I upped the ML bet to 3500. I honestly didn't see a path for Hermansson, extremely impressed, but hard to appreciate these great breakout performances when betting. Hats off to Hermansson bettors, especially @Soccer Steve

Was less than 15k away from the 100k BR goal before tonight. Bit of a setback but hopeful I get there by summer.

Jesus christ dude...do you have it a sportsbook or your own personal bankroll in liquid cash?

Sorry bad the bad night. You will recover

 

[Sadistics]

Jesus christ dude...do you have it a sportsbook or your own personal bankroll in liquid cash?

Sorry bad the bad night. You will recover

Got it spread across various books and have a separate bank account for it. Appreciate the condolences, sounds like a lot but it's all relative, about 6.5% of BR

 

[nebulousned]

$30 on jacare to return $45
$20 on Hardy to return $28
$40 on Arlovski to return $88
$20 on Lineker to return $33.40
$20 on McGee to return $36.00

Increased my bets on Arlovski and Jacare, so these are all final bets above. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about this card. I refrained from touching the Glover and Perry fights cause I'm trying to be a better bettor. If I suck this time as well I'll have to have a long hard look in the mirror.

risked 130, got $28. disgusted with the arlovski decision which would have done a lot to alleviate my losses.

either way, guess i suck at betting. im gonna bet imaginary money from now on until my results get better.

edit: or give up entirely, hats off to all of you who have actually managed to succeed with this thing. it's hard!

 

[Soccer Steve]

Hermansson ML - 2u for 2.73u (+135/+160)
Hermansson Round 4 - 0.125u for 2.38u
Hermansson Round 5 - 0.125u for 3.13u
Hardy ML - 5u for 1.89u (-265)
Smoliakov Submission - 0.3u for 2.5u (+800)
Ion ML - 3u for 2.01u (-140/-147/-155)
Ion KO - 0.38u for 0.69u (+185)
Teixeira ML - 1u for 0.85u (-116/-120)
Virna ML - 3u for 3.3u (+110)
Draw - 0.125u for 7.5u (+6000)
Arlovski ML - 1u for 1.2u (+120)
Sakai ML - 2u for 1.38u (-140/-150)
Sakai Decision - 0.5u for 1.15u (+210/+242)
Sakai Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.34u (+1075)
FGTD - 1u for 0.69u (-145)
Lineker ML - 5u for 3.54u (-130/-145/-150/-155)
Lineker Round 2 - 0.125u for 0.81u (+650)
Lineker Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.25u (+1000)
Gonzalez ML - 2.5u for 3.24u (+125/+130/+133)
Gonzalez Submission - 0.25u for 2.73u (+1092)
McGee ML - 2u for 1.08u (-185)
McGee Decision - 1u for 1.3u (+130)
Roberts ML - 3u for 0.8u (-375)
Perry ML - 1.5u for 2.45u (+160/+165)
Perry KO - 0.38u for 1.09u (+290)
Perry Round 3 - 0.125u for 1.25u (+1100)
Sato ML - 2u for 0.95u (-210)
Saunders Submission - 0.125u for 0.59u (+475)
Hill + Roberts - 1u for 0.42u
Musaev (KSW) + Hardy - 2u for 1.44u

5.06u on my posted plays, made out alright in total (7u) but that's a bullshit final tally because...well, whatever, it just is. Thanks for the shout out @Sadistics now if you could just ignore my Gonzalez, Virna, Ion, Lineker, and McGee plays that'd be cool thanks. Hell, you can ignore my Hardy and Sakai plays too.

Was so certain Sato was gonna annihilate Ben; went 2u on a chalk ML.
Had basically no idea how Miller or Gonzalez would look; went 2.75u on a shrug.
Told myself 100x to buy out of Virna with Carla Decision; didn't.
Told myself 100x to buy out of Hardy play with Smol; didn't.
Was on the right side of Sakai, was on the wrong side of Lineker. McGee plain lost. But I still don't know how those same humans judged it for Sakai and not for Lineker.
Really underrated Glover. Probably really overrated Hermansson but I'll wear that gold star anyway.
Was a very strange night and strange lead-up too with all that line movement.
Hope you guys made out ok.

 

[Soccer Steve]

risked 130, got $28. disgusted with the arlovski decision which would have made me profitable if it went the other way.

either way, guess i suck at betting. im gonna bet imaginary money from now on until my results get better.

edit: or give up entirely, hats of to all of you who have actually managed to succeed with this thing. it's hard!

Arlovski - robbery (although I was the only one in the pbp thread who said they understood a Sakai nod)
Lineker - robbery (see my above comment? fuck that and fuck those idiot judges)
McGee - split loss (he lost, no doubt, but he also looked unexpectedly poor, and maybe Lima looked unexpectedly decent)
Hardy - free money (nice pick, there weren't many of us who saw that as easy coin)
Jacare - tough loss (I did a few write-ups about the warning signs of a Jacare pick, but that performance by Hermansson exceeded what I thought he could do. Alot of sharp people smashed Jacare, no shame there.)

You did fine, man. These nights happen. Chin up and keep at it.

 

[nebulousned]

Arlovski - robbery (although I was the only one in the pbp thread who said they understood a Sakai nod)
Lineker - robbery (see my above comment? fuck that and fuck those idiot judges)
McGee - split loss (he lost, no doubt, but he also looked unexpectedly poor, and maybe Lima looked unexpectedly decent)
Hardy - free money (nice pick, there weren't many of us who saw that as easy coin)
Jacare - tough loss (I did a few write-ups about the warning signs of a Jacare pick, but that performance by Hermansson exceeded what I thought he could do. Alot of sharp people smashed Jacare, no shame there.)

You did fine, man. These nights happen. Chin up and keep at it.

thank you for the kind words. being a profitable bettor is no easy feat.

 

[ApplesVild]

I would have done so much better if I had stuck with my gut instinct and early thoughts, also if I'd stayed sober and been more clever with my live bets, but either way a decent profit and all the guys that people were doubting early in the week came in and crushed it for me

 

[2bet]

1u plays:
Burns
Miller
Arlovski
Saunders/... ITD + Hardy/... ITD + Jacare/... ITD
Lineker + Jacare
Cutelaba + Rory

freerolling on Jandiroba

small card for me.
Sorry I don't have notes on the odds at hand, I got terrible odds on Lineker and Cutelaba, the others are average, nothing special

around 3u down on this event, which makes it my second worst event in 2019

Arlovski was robbed 100% imo
I am happy that I just freerolled Jandiroba
Main Event ITD was my squarest bet this year, that was stupid
Besides that i didn't bet anything wrong IMO, it was a tough event to bet on so I am glad that I didn't put much on the line

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Lineker @1.68, 2u

Souza @1.60, 4u

Hardy @1.37, 5u

Added:
2u on Lineker @1.68
1u Souza KO @6.00

Down a very painful 7.15u. I actually haven't had the time to watch the fights yet, so don't have an analysis of how poor my bets were. Despite the result I'm trying to take away as a positive that I managed to stay disciplined and resist the urge to bet every fight... Last time I only bet three fights I

As a Swede, and a fan, I'm happy for Hermansson–though I'd rather have had him knocked out, haha.

Congrats to Hermansson bettors! Haven't seen the fight yet, but from what I've heard soccersteve's comment about Hermansson being the more motivated and focused fighter seems to have been on point!

 

[t6p]

1.35u Lineker -135
0.1u Lineker SUB +1500

So close to cashing both bets. Hit Glover live for 0.5u at +170 and 0.5u main event FDGTD +100 after round 3. Broke my 4 event winning streak, but just a small loss and I’m glad I didn’t force any other plays.

NET: -1.1u

 

[Red_2]

I would have done so much better if I had stuck with my gut instinct and early thoughts, also if I'd stayed sober and been more clever with my live bets, but either way a decent profit and all the guys that people were doubting early in the week came in and crushed it for me

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Good lord, that 3-way parlay was a fucking great one. Well done.

 

[Red_2]

McGee and Cutelaba fucked everyone. Never trust the circle jerk

 

[ApplesVild]

Good lord, that 3-way parlay was a fucking great one. Well done.

Thanks mate, I would have made a good £100+ more is Andrie didn't get fucked by the judges

 

[Austisthunder]

The Prince of War - 3U -290

Ion 2U -115

Roosevelt 3U -350

Lineker 1U -135

Jacare 3U -175

Rory Mac 1U -360

Wanna go on macfarlan too but thats odds dependant

Down a little over a U due to Tex Sub as insurance on the Cutelaba fight.

Relatively unscathed