UFC Orlando: Thompson vs. Holland, Saturday, December 3

[Thesnake101]

I think Tai might get a bit more leeway just based on reputation. Refs do take that into account.

At the same time he's gotten stopped by old JDS and Gane, both of whom aren't exactly great finishers but managed to exploit Tai's sloppyness to great deal, which I think Sergei should be able to do as well if only due to his athletic gifts.

BB and Hardy are the two most prominent fights where Tai managed to fight through being rocked to score a finish, but these two are on the same boat of not exactly being very polished strikers, so it makes sense they'd make mistakes and put themselves in harm's way as soon as they smelled blood, which Pavlovich isn't too prone to do.

The string of finishes tell one story for Sergei, but back in FN he was no stranger to going the distance against guys he realistically should have finished, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick to a gameplan here instead of throwing the kitchen sink.

Basically, I think Tuivasa is utterly fucked in this matchup. Could be wrong, but I think his best case scenario is losing a lopsided decision where he catches Pavlovich once or twice.

Spoiler

This isn't me hyping up Sergei as the next big thing either, it's more me condemning the HW division as a whole for letting a guy as limited as Tuivasa find himself in a high ranking position.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

At the same time he's gotten stopped by old JDS and Gane, both of whom aren't exactly great finishers but managed to exploit Tai's sloppyness to great deal, which I think Sergei should be able to do as well if only due to his athletic gifts.

BB and Hardy are the two most prominent fights where Tai managed to fight through being rocked to score a finish, but these two are on the same boat of not exactly being very polished strikers, so it makes sense they'd make mistakes and put themselves in harm's way as soon as they smelled blood, which Pavlovich isn't too prone to do.

The string of finishes tell one story for Sergei, but back in FN he was no stranger to going the distance against guys he realistically should have finished, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick to a gameplan here instead of throwing the kitchen sink.

Basically, I think Tuivasa is utterly fucked in this matchup. Could be wrong, but I think his best case scenario is losing a lopsided decision where he catches Pavlovich once or twice.

Spoiler

This isn't me hyping up Sergei as the next big thing either, it's more me condemning the HW division as a whole for letting a guy as limited as Tuivasa find himself in a high ranking position.

I don't disagree with any of that, all I was saying is I think the ref would be slower to pull the trigger on a stoppage as Tai has a rep for being dangerous when hurt and staying in fights.

I think Tai is always live for a punchers chance though, dude is quicker than he looks.

 

[Thesnake101]

Thinking the over for Elkins fight might have value. Feel like most seem to be on Pearce by finish (maybe that's just tap skewing everything), but I could see a grappling heavy affair that goes the distance. Maybe Pearce could turn it on like Lamas did on Darren late in the fight, but still, Darren is great at surviving most of the time.

On that note, I'm sorta mulling over Levy/Valdez DNGTD but will probably pass. Genaro is a pretty shitty glass cannon imo, but Levy's body language looked horrid in his last fight against someone I don't rate at all as well, seemed like he gassed way too early and was on the verge of quitting several times. Could see him wilting if he doesn't catch Valdez early in something.

Nicolau by KO might be something I play as well. I love Matt and his comeback sub over Su, but his chin has always let him down against sharper strikers, and Matheus is nothing if not sharp. He's got good power too, even if he rarely pushes for a finish.

What's the thought on Istela's ML? I doubt she wins but Yazmin seems like she's getting highly overrated for someone with as little high level experience as her.

 

[lefontes]

Bad card for betting imo

 

[BigSteve]

Less than an hour boys, jump on with me

 

[B.Goetz]

Phil Rowe by DEC (+425) small
If it goes to decision, the guy with the 4" reach advantage will usually take it. Hard to overcome that in the later rounds when you slow down a bit.

Kevin Holland ML (-160) and by DEC (+350) small
Younger, faster, rangier. Should be hard to put Wonderboy away. Wish I had taken the earlier odds.

Emily Ducote (-124)
Hill is a high-mileage 37 year old, who started her career end losing skid a while ago.

Sergei Pavlovich (-175)
Much more polished striker. I think Tuivasa is a lower-tier HW, just with more power than the rest. Spivak can also choose to wrestle if he wants to, although I think that's more of a threat to his cardio than Tai's striking would be to his consciousness.

I'd love to know what bets others make (especially the heavy hitters), preferably earlier than the official bets thread, along with the rationale.

 

[PuertoRican]

Since this fight card is in Orlando, it made me think about the cage size. iirc, the last UFC card in Florida used the big cage, but I might be wrong.

Fight Nights are usually in the small cage, but then again, Fight Nights are usually in the Apex.

Quote my post with the cage size when you know for sure.

This event is in the big cage.

Glad I didn't place my bets yet.

 

[sonhow]

Phil Rowe by DEC (+425) small
If it goes to decision, the guy with the 4" reach advantage will usually take it. Hard to overcome that in the later rounds when you slow down a bit.

Kevin Holland ML (-160) and by DEC (+350) small
Younger, faster, rangier. Should be hard to put Wonderboy away. Wish I had taken the earlier odds.

Emily Ducote (-124)
Hill is a high-mileage 37 year old, who started her career end losing skid a while ago.

Sergey Spivak (-175)
Much more polished striker. I think Tuivasa is a lower-tier HW, just with more power than the rest. Spivak can also choose to wrestle if he wants to, although I think that's more of a threat to his cardio than Tai's striking would be to his consciousness.

I'd love to know what bets others make (especially the heavy hitters), preferably earlier than the official bets thread, along with the rationale.

Sergei *Pavlovich

 

[burge13]

RDA tko +500. I think this is a good line, Barb aint that durable any more

 

[lefontes]

I like Over 2.5 in the main event

 

[Bakayoko]

At the same time he's gotten stopped by old JDS and Gane, both of whom aren't exactly great finishers but managed to exploit Tai's sloppyness to great deal, which I think Sergei should be able to do as well if only due to his athletic gifts.

BB and Hardy are the two most prominent fights where Tai managed to fight through being rocked to score a finish, but these two are on the same boat of not exactly being very polished strikers, so it makes sense they'd make mistakes and put themselves in harm's way as soon as they smelled blood, which Pavlovich isn't too prone to do.

The string of finishes tell one story for Sergei, but back in FN he was no stranger to going the distance against guys he realistically should have finished, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him stick to a gameplan here instead of throwing the kitchen sink.

Basically, I think Tuivasa is utterly fucked in this matchup. Could be wrong, but I think his best case scenario is losing a lopsided decision where he catches Pavlovich once or twice.

Spoiler

This isn't me hyping up Sergei as the next big thing either, it's more me condemning the HW division as a whole for letting a guy as limited as Tuivasa find himself in a high ranking position.

Yeah,Pavlovich is actually pretty low volume and has a few decision victories back in the day.
And like two years ago I would agree that Tai is definitelly fucked,but he really surprised me in his last few fights(even against Gane).He moves better then before and his low kicks are better.I'll pass on the ML,but I could see value in the O 1,5 or each guys very high dec odds.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

There are a lot of wide lines on this one. So wide I won’t be able to resist playing fighters I probably would’ve passed on

Istela Nunes Dec is +400 and that is insane value. If this is a striking match it could end up looking like a 50/50

@BigSteve did you see anything in tape that might suggest Yazmin might try to grapple Nunes?

Anders is nearing +200 and even though I don’t like him as a fighter there’s no reason for daukaus to be lined at nearly -300

tais line continues to climb and if he gets out of rd 1 he could give Sergei problems

wonderboys line is starting to get a bit crazy. Holland is not on his level, even at 39 years old. He’s neutralized more polished strikers

schnell at +300. Yea I get it, his chin is a liability but what if it holds up like it did against su?

guida at +165. Holtzman is 39 and yea he’s got a power advantage and his striking is a little crisper but -190 better? Guida is going to put volume on him and make it a dog fight.

 

[BigSteve]

There are a lot of wide lines on this one. So wide I won’t be able to resist playing fighters I probably would’ve passed on

Istela Nunes Dec is +400 and that is insane value. If this is a striking match it could end up looking like a 50/50

@BigSteve did you see anything in tape that might suggest Yazmin might try to grapple Nunes?

Anders is nearing +200 and even though I don’t like him as a fighter there’s no reason for daukaus to be lined at nearly -300

tais line continues to climb and if he gets out of rd 1 he could give Sergei problems

wonderboys line is starting to get a bit crazy. Holland is not on his level, even at 39 years old. He’s neutralized more polished strikers

schnell at +300. Yea I get it, his chin is a liability but what if it holds up like it did against su?

guida at +165. Holtzman is 39 and yea he’s got a power advantage and his striking is a little crisper but -190 better? Guida is going to put volume on him and make it a dog fight.

I do, in quite a lot of regional fights actually

 

[mkess101]

RDA tko +500. I think this is a good line, Barb aint that durable any more

IDK...Robbie landed some BOMBS on Barb and Barb's chin held up. Robbie is a shell of himself but it's not like his power is the thing that's gone. Maybe diminished a bit, but power is always the last thing to go so I'd imagine Robbie can still crack a little. That was a hell of a dogfight.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if RDA just taked Barb down and dominates from top position. I like RDA sub at over +300 a little better than his TKO line. There's just no risk for him to take Barb down and dominate with grappling, whereas there's at least a little risk standing with him.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I do, in quite a lot of regional fights actually

I’ll be betting on Nunes point deduction +2000 then. She should’ve had several points taken vs carnelossi

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Taking a deeper look here at Yazmin

she definitely prefers to stand and bang. She’s got guff. She likes to fight and trade punches. She’s a dog. She won’t accept bottom position. She won’t lay and pray

her takedowns seem to be more opportunistic but against romo it looked like good fight iq to me. She seemed to go for take downs at the end of rounds to make sure she won them

now these takedowns are just body lock muscle tds. I haven’t seen her shooting doubles or singles.

If she’s getting pieced up and frustrated by Nunes she very well may look to take the fight to ground. She’s not particularly heavy on top mostly because she’s so aggressive so Nunes probably won’t be grounded for long if she does get taken down

Nunes has a noticeable speed advantage and moves quite a bit better than Yazmin. The only things I noticed are that she at times has a hitch in her straight right hand and overtorks on some of her punches leaving her open to counters or even off balance takedowns.

I’m probably going to end up with a unit on Nunes between her ml and Dec line. It’s too good not to play. I’ll likely have an opportunity to hedge live on yazmin

Yazmin isn’t going to stop coming though, so she will probably take over late in the fight. Could just look to live bet her with no play on Nunes

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Feel like I have a pretty decent read on most of this weekend's fights, except for Marshall vs Rojo.

I don't really know Marshall at all, I've only seen his CS fight. How does he react to getting hit? Rojo KO or bust? Marshall wrestling/grappling too strong?

 

[BigSteve]

Taking a deeper look here at Yazmin

she definitely prefers to stand and bang. She’s got guff. She likes to fight and trade punches. She’s a dog. She won’t accept bottom position. She won’t lay and pray

her takedowns seem to be more opportunistic but against romo it looked like good fight iq to me. She seemed to go for take downs at the end of rounds to make sure she won them

now these takedowns are just body lock muscle tds. I haven’t seen her shooting doubles or singles.

If she’s getting pieced up and frustrated by Nunes she very well may look to take the fight to ground. She’s not particularly heavy on top mostly because she’s so aggressive so Nunes probably won’t be grounded for long if she does get taken down

Nunes has a noticeable speed advantage and moves quite a bit better than Yazmin. The only things I noticed are that she at times has a hitch in her straight right hand and overtorks on some of her punches leaving her open to counters or even off balance takedowns.

I’m probably going to end up with a unit on Nunes between her ml and Dec line. It’s too good not to play. I’ll likely have an opportunity to hedge live on yazmin

Yazmin isn’t going to stop coming though, so she will probably take over late in the fight. Could just look to live bet her with no play on Nunes

I just finished re-taping, and im passing due to Nunes boxing defence. She got countered and dropped in One before her UFC debut as well as Hughes of all people lighting her up in rounds 2 and 3. I think she loses round 3 at a pretty high clip, and the margins are pretty slim for her to win 1 and 2. Of course robberies are always possible

 

[Mcgregorian]

Anyone else thinks Dolidze wins here?

 

[Kenny95]

Anyone else thinks Dolidze wins here?

Fighting a taller striker is the type of fight jack loses but he has improved some and might shake those demons.