UFC Vegas 76: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov, July 1

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UFC Vegas 76

https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCVegas76?src=hashtag_click&f=live

https://fightodds.io/odds/4696/ufc-fight-night-strickland-vs-magomedov
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-vegas-76
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/100452-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73400

UFC Fight Night:
Sean Thomas Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Abus Magomedov

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"Sean Thomas Strickland stands very tall with an unusual guard that rests on or below his chin but he is constantly jabbing, feinting or hand-fighting regardless. Strickland thrives in his ability to move minimally inside the pocket so that he is still in range to counter and flow into his next combination, however, this is done with less slipping and rolling, rather he will lean away or angle off. He extends his guard when he pulls away so that his opponents tend to land on his arms. Opponents should look to attack Strickland’s lead leg, because as one of the best jabs in the UFC, Strickland does shift his weight heavily forward. Take away his leg and take away his jab, which is one of, if not his best weapon. That being said, when Strickland finds his lead leg being eaten he does tend to shift to a Thai stance, and use a good teep to keep his opponents at bay, this may provide Strickland's opponent opportunities to catch the leg and look for his trips and takedowns and test Strickland’s grappling from bottom. Strickland is big, strong, and technical but lacks the power and athleticism that many atop the division have in spades. Strickland tends to fight with an extreme upright stance, hands close to his jaw, and mouth open, often talking to his opponent. “Tarzan” has crisp boxing that relies on fundamentals, volume, and precision over aggression and power. Frustratingly, though, in back to back fights, Strickland’s game plan has been so bare bones that his fundamental boxing has been reduced to a single fundamental jab for most of the fight. Rather than using his quick and volume heavy jab to set up a power combination, recently, Strickland has kept his right hand glued to his face. It’s possible that getting knocked out permanently changed Strickland’s fighting style. Prior to getting KO’d, in a standup fight, Strickland often had the edge in boxing but often is a step behind when all facets of MMA striking come into play. Said another way, Strickland is a one-note boxer with little striking variety or power. When “on,” Strickland is able to push a steady and constant pace, fight intelligently and safely behind his jab, and land consistent combinations, when he lets his hands go. Strickland is also a sneaky wrestler. Most of his fights are technically driven and he wins decisions on the back of out pointing opponents; but, if he gets into trouble, Strickland has proven an ability to time a takedown and finish it with regularly success. Although, more often, Strickland uses his grappling chops as way to stuff opponent takedowns and keep the fight standing. Because Strickland doesn’t have much power or fight finishing ability himself, he relies on cardio and volume to win decisions. At times, though, even after Strickland wins the first part of a round, one big shot can sway the judges. This was apparent in his most recent loss to Cannonier. Strickland out-landed Cannonier but Cannonier did significantly more damage. Notably, he uses a very upright stance with a non-stop jab which is quick and lands with regularity. The issue is that while, on paper, the jab allows him to get up on the strike count, the visual of throwing a touch jab out there makes it less than appealing for the judges, hence him losing close decisions. Moreover, his upright stance of his creates an opportunity for his opponent to land a variety of strikes to his body and legs, and although Sean Strickland has impeccable durability and a keen sense to avoid the harshest end of a particular strike, the way in which his opponent lands looks more damaging than what he inflicts on his opponent"

"Abusupiyan Abus Magomedov is well-rounded but on the feet is where he likes to take control. He’s really good at controlling the fight at his preferred range. He can throw just single shots at times but his vision and shot placement make up for it. Magomedov uses a lot of hard feints drawing his opponent out of their comfort zone and then making them pay. He’s really slick when coming in on combinations— he can slip punches and return. “Abus” always leads combinations with a different attack and mixes up his patterns. Magomedov has power in everything he throws and has the output behind it when he comes forward. Magomedov doesn’t do it as much but he’s a darn good wrestler and the ground game is just as good. The trips he utilizes in the clinch and just basic wrestling skills are solid. He does have six submissions and four of those are by guillotine. He’s definitely someone you can’t shoot blindly on or just duck your head the wrong way on. Magomedov is just a problem on top with his submission game along with his top position and grappling. He doesn’t really have any glaring holes in his game. Magomedov does slow slightly as the fight goes but he’s never really gassed out. Age 32 and at 185 he still is in his prime. I think Abusupiyan Abus Magomedov has top 15 potential"

Both are age 32

Abus 1 inch taller and 2 inch reach advantage

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/bouts/754596-ufc-fight-night-sean-strickland-vs-abus-magomedov

UFC Vegas 76
 
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Brenner is going to face a pretty big athletic disadvantage
 
Damir at -155 vs Dawson. Feels like a pretty good bet at these odds. Grant is a good grappler but I haven't been overly impressed. I feel like he hasn't really beaten the opponents he faced as convincingly as expected. He is also slowing down quite hard as the fight goes on.
Damir on the other hand is just below the elite. If he can stuff takedowns and keep it on the feet in R1 he should take over Nd dominate as the fight goes on.

Gonna look at it a bit more before I place a bet, but think I like it.
 
Damir at -155 vs Dawson. Feels like a pretty good bet at these odds. Grant is a good grappler but I haven't been overly impressed. I feel like he hasn't really beaten the opponents he faced as convincingly as expected. He is also slowing down quite hard as the fight goes on.
Damir on the other hand is just below the elite. If he can stuff takedowns and keep it on the feet in R1 he should take over Nd dominate as the fight goes on.

Gonna look at it a bit more before I place a bet, but think I like it.

I think ATT Dawson is a different animal to what he was before he trained there. I would proceed with caution.
 
I think ATT Dawson is a different animal to what he was before he trained there. I would proceed with caution.
When did he switch? Maybe something to consider.
Damir had a even fight with Arman, who i rank higher than Dawson. He should handle Dawson as well i think.
 
When did he switch? Maybe something to consider.
Damir had a even fight with Arman, who i rank higher than Dawson. He should handle Dawson as well i think.

Damir lost every single round, on every single judges scorecard, that was not an even fight.

Also Damir was taken down seven times and controlled for 9.5 minutes which is something Dawson is quite capable of doing as long as his cardio permits. Dawson took down Mark Madsen several times in his last fight, an olympic medalist, and controlled him for nearly two full rounds before submitting him in the third.

What gives you confidence Dawson is not capable of taking down and controlling Damir?
 
When did he switch? Maybe something to consider.
Damir had a even fight with Arman, who i rank higher than Dawson. He should handle Dawson as well i think.

Just before the Jared Gordon fight .
 
UFC Vegas 76

https://twitter.com/hashtag/UFCVegas76?src=hashtag_click&f=live
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/100452-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73400
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-vegas-76
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/bouts/754596-ufc-fight-night-sean-strickland-vs-abus-magomedov
https://fightodds.io/odds/4696/ufc-fight-night-strickland-vs-magomedov


Jul 1 Sat 2023 - UFC Vegas 76
10:00 PM
24901
Abus Magomedov
+145
24902
Sean Strickland
-170
10:00 PM
24905
Grant Dawson
+120
24906
Damir Ismagulov
-140
10:00 PM
24909
Max Griffin
+170
24910
Michael Morales
-200
10:00 PM
24913
Ariane Lipski
+141
24914
Melissa Gatto
-161
10:00 PM
24917
Kevin Lee
+190
24918
Rinat Fakhretdinov
-225
10:00 PM
24921
Blagoy Ivanov
-105
24922
Alexandr Romanov
-115
10:00 PM
24925
Benoit Saint-Denis
+230
24926
Ismael Bonfim
-270
10:00 PM
24933
Luana Carolina
+180
24934
Ivana Petrovic
-210
10:00 PM
24945
Elves Brenner
+375
24946
Guram Kutateladze
-500
10:00 PM
24949
Yana Santos
+155
24950
Karol Rosa
-180
 
Rinat Fakhretdinov to win

I recognized Rinat's potential even before UFC man has dominant wrestling like Khabib. Champion material.

Damir Ismagulov to win

SSSR school. The best boxing in the UFC alongside Poirier and Topuria. Fighters who can press him against the wire and look for bodylock takedowns pose a problem for him, Dawson is a fighter who prefers low single, double leg... Generally level changing takedowns, but Ismagulov moves too well so it will be difficult for him to find the timing. Champion material, but it came at the wrong time, when lightweight is this good.
 
Damir lost every single round, on every single judges scorecard, that was not an even fight.

Also Damir was taken down seven times and controlled for 9.5 minutes which is something Dawson is quite capable of doing as long as his cardio permits. Dawson took down Mark Madsen several times in his last fight, an olympic medalist, and controlled him for nearly two full rounds before submitting him in the third.

What gives you confidence Dawson is not capable of taking down and controlling Damir?
2 different wrestlers. Tsarukyan works more from a bodylock along the wire, while Dawson prefers level changing, where timing is the most important thing and that will be hard to find against a fighter who moves all the time on his toes and is much more agile.
 
Rinat Fakhretdinov to win

I recognized Rinat's potential even before UFC man has dominant wrestling like Khabib. Champion material.

Damir Ismagulov to win

SSSR school. The best boxing in the UFC alongside Poirier and Topuria. Fighters who can press him against the wire and look for bodylock takedowns pose a problem for him, Dawson is a fighter who prefers low single, double leg... Generally level changing takedowns, but Ismagulov moves too well so it will be difficult for him to find the timing. Champion material, but it came at the wrong time, when lightweight is this good.

I dunno if Rinat is Khabib level, he's a good wrestler with a powerful overhand though. Didn't have the strongest strength of schedule pre UFC but I guess neither did Khabib.

I'm interested what happens if he can't get Lee down
 
I dunno if Rinat is Khabib level, he's a good wrestler with a powerful overhand though. Didn't have the strongest strength of schedule pre UFC but I guess neither did Khabib.

I'm interested what happens if he can't get Lee down
As for the ground game, he is far from Khabib, but his timing, chains, compactness, pressure, clinch control, variety of takedowns, persistence are quite similar to him...

It's a hot take bu''' will see...
 
As for the ground game, he is far from Khabib, but his timing, chains, compactness, pressure, clinch control, variety of takedowns, persistence are quite similar to him...

It's a hot take bu''' will see...
Since he's -250, it isn't so much of a hot take.

That being said, I also like Rinat to get the win, but I don't like paying over -200 for a fighter. Maybe I'll add him to a 2-team parlay to reduce the amount of money I have to risk on him.
 
Since he's -250, it isn't so much of a hot take.

That being said, I also like Rinat to get the win, but I don't like paying over -200 for a fighter. Maybe I'll add him to a 2-team parlay to reduce the amount of money I have to risk on him.
When I said "Hot take" I meant that he will become champion and that he resembles Khabib in terms of wrestling qualities.
 
Rinat and Guram both should win quite easily …. Threw a quick 140 for 250 on them

Brito should win easily - but there’s no odds out yet on that fight - not sure why


Gatto and petrovic are next most confident picks that should both win aswell - but wmma fights are always risky - dogs come through all the time in wmma - so not sure how to play them yet


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i like Abus as a dog. first glance pre tape.

Red weak lean, orange mild lean, yellow mildly strong , green strong lean.

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I think a Magomedov, Dawson, Griffin parlay is a decent bet. I don't think Griffin is near the underdog the betting line says. Dawson and Magomedov are closer to 50/50 bets. Risky, but worth a 20 dollar throw in for me.

Morales hasn't faced a lot of tough competition in front of large crowds. Griffin's performances in his recent losses with tough competition could have gone either way and were more impressive than most of Morales' wins.
 
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Guram is a mild lean ? He’s going to destroy brenner lol

Rinat should be a green light aswell - he’s way better than Kevin Lee !

Brito and petrovic next most confident picks

Placed a small bet on Rinat and Guram this morning to get in before Rinat moves to a -400 which he probably should be.


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