UFC Vegas 77: Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva, July 15

[mkess101]

Buena Silva has decent thai boxing. Her kicks are solid. Holy’s lost a lot of hand speed and she mostly relies on cage stalling and karate kicks.

Silva isn’t that far different in skills to Ketlen.

Holly has made herself into a pretty decent wrestler though. She's old, but seems to have that "old woman" strength LOL. She's hit a lot of TD's and had a lot of control against what I'd deem at least similar grapplers (in terms of TDD anyway) to MBS. And MBS has been taken down in almost all her fights. She's hit subs off her back in a few too, so that's a threat obviously but I don't think I'd want to back her with the thinking being she'll catch a kneebar or something if Holly takes her down.

IDK, the right play is probably just o4.5 or goes distance. Not crazy juice, and it covers both a tactical standup fight like Holly/Viera or a fight where Holly lays on top of MBS for long stretches. Holly doesn't even seem to look to finish anymore, and MBS sub seems relatively unlikely.

 

[sonhow]

Buena Silva has decent thai boxing. Her kicks are solid. Holy’s lost a lot of hand speed and she mostly relies on cage stalling and karate kicks.

Silva isn’t that far different in skills to Ketlen.

She loves to play guard though. Dont see a sub from back. The scenario I could see its point fight on the feet and they score for Bueno just like Ketlen. With Holly almost quaranteed a shot for the belt with win I expect her to use all her tricks to gain the win. This means cage stall, timely takedowns, more volume than usual etc. Silva stil has yet to beat even decent fighter. Need to see it before I believe it.

 

[King-Ryan]

Some of my current thoughts for this card.

I'm on Munoz... nothing crazy I just like his wrestling and I don't think his striking is worse then Deaton's either. He looks ripped and in good shape on his IG so I'm not as worried about the layoff.

Nam/Maksum... I'm not seeing the justificstion for Maksum to be -425 and growing here... I'm aware of Nam's flaws/age and Maksum has good grappling but Nam has good TDD and I favor Nam on the feet by quiet a bit... Nam KO'd Ode and I thought he won Rd1 against Silva. I've already sprinkled Nam ITD +650 and RD1 +1400... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which will still be nice plus money

Dumont/Chandler... I'm on Norma small here... I don't feel great about it but Chandler is a 135er, most of her pro fights were at 135 and her original UFC debut was supposed to be at 135... Chandler is pretty green especially on the feet and I don't think she will be able to bully a big strong Durmont the way she did to 135lber Stoliarenko

Thinking about playing Padro ML -110 or Fight dosent start RD 2 -110

Like someone else just said I also like Lingo here... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which should still be very playable odds.

Park ML and Park RD3 sprinkle intrest me but I haven't taped this one yet

Any thoughts?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Holly has made herself into a pretty decent wrestler though. She's old, but seems to have that "old woman" strength LOL. She's hit a lot of TD's and had a lot of control against what I'd deem at least similar grapplers (in terms of TDD anyway) to MBS. And MBS has been taken down in almost all her fights. She's hit subs off her back in a few too, so that's a threat obviously but I don't think I'd want to back her with the thinking being she'll catch a kneebar or something if Holly takes her down.

IDK, the right play is probably just o4.5 or goes distance. Not crazy juice, and it covers both a tactical standup fight like Holly/Viera or a fight where Holly lays on top of MBS for long stretches. Holly doesn't even seem to look to finish anymore, and MBS sub seems relatively unlikely.

Yeah 'll just fade both. I dont like this version of Holly. I have ptsd from her Ketlen fight. I see a path to victory sure, but 25 mins of Holly having to put on a perfect performance of non stop wrestling. All it takes is a few knees in the clinch from SIlva to lose this low activity fight as they clinch up in the cage.

She loves to play guard though. Dont see a sub from back. The scenario I could see its point fight on the feet and they score for Bueno just like Ketlen. With Holly almost quaranteed a shot for the belt with win I expect her to use all her tricks to gain the win. This means cage stall, timely takedowns, more volume than usual etc. Silva stil has yet to beat even decent fighter. Need to see it before I believe it.

Silva has a decent clinch game, loves to throw those knees. Id just be having a heart attack watching this kind of fight. Especially if it's the tail end of a parlay.

Holly could do everything right. But still lose due to scoring . The judges will play a huge role here. And i don't wish to rely on them to pay my bills , i want one sided no dispute wins. Cage ctrl or low activity fights like this are always going to weigh heavy on judges scoring.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah 'll just fade both. I dont like this version of Holly. I have ptsd from her Ketlen fight. I see a path to victory sure, but 25 mins of Holly having to put on a perfect performance of non stop wrestling. All it takes is a few knees in the clinch from SIlva to lose this low activity fight as they clinch up in the cage.


Silva has a decent clinch game, loves to throw those knees. Id just be having a heart attack watching this kind of fight. Especially if it's the tail end of a parlay.

Holly could do everything right. But still lose due to scoring . The judges will play a huge role here. And i don't wish to rely on them to pay my bills , i want one sided no dispute wins. Cage ctrl or low activity fights like this are always going to weigh heavy on judges scoring.

Like I said, o4.5 or goes distance is the play imo. Maybe sprinkle a tiny bit on the dec line for either fighter if you like the odds or have a lean but main play is that this one goes to the cards.

 

[humperdoo]

these cards don't make sense. women's division is nothing in UFC without nunes. just bring back rousey

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Some of my current thoughts for this card.

I'm on Munoz... nothing crazy I just like his wrestling and I don't think his striking is worse then Deaton's either. He looks ripped and in good shape on his IG so I'm not as worried about the layoff.

Nam/Maksum... I'm not seeing the justificstion for Maksum to be -425 and growing here... I'm aware of Nam's flaws/age and Maksum has good grappling but Nam has good TDD and I favor Nam on the feet by quiet a bit... Nam KO'd Ode and I thought he won Rd1 against Silva. I've already sprinkled Nam ITD +650 and RD1 +1400... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which will still be nice plus money

Dumont/Chandler... I'm on Norma small here... I don't feel great about it but Chandler is a 135er, most of her pro fights were at 135 and her original UFC debut was supposed to be at 135... Chandler is pretty green especially on the feet and I don't think she will be able to bully a big strong Durmont the way she did to 135lber Stoliarenko

Thinking about playing Padro ML -110 or Fight dosent start RD 2 -110

Like someone else just said I also like Lingo here... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which should still be very playable odds.

Park ML and Park RD3 sprinkle intrest me but I haven't taped this one yet

Any thoughts?

Chiasson fought at 135 moved up and bullied dumont. Chandler looks huge at 145

 

[King-Ryan]

Chiasson fought at 135 moved up and bullied dumont. Chandler looks huge at 145

That is true but Chiasson was killing herself to make 135 and she is actually a decent fighter.

Source for Chandler looking huge? From what I saw at media day and their recent IG posts it looks like Dumont is the thicker more muscular girl... I could be wrong ill reasses at weigh ins

I think Dumont knows she doesn't want to do MMA for to much longer but also that she has a chance to fight for a title next if she wins this fight so she is all in

 

[Georges Hefner]

I dont like this fight card to much for betting expect to watch it i do.

I do like some of the underdogs.
Still deciding to take a few shots on some of the underdogs.

Mckinney and Duraev are solid underdogs imo. I think they should be favorites

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

That is true but Chiasson was killing herself to make 135 and she is actually a decent fighter.

Source for Chandler looking huge? From what I saw at media day and their recent IG posts it looks like Dumont is the thicker more muscular girl... I could be wrong ill reasses at weigh ins

I think Dumont knows she doesn't want to do MMA for to much longer but also that she has a chance to fight for a title next if she wins this fight so she is all in

I thought she looked bigger against Julija, her back in particular. Looks like she’s had proper time to cycle

I would never bet dumont as a favorite against a girl who hits like a man. Dumont is chinny. She was knocked out by Megan Anderson and dropped bad in her last fight Vs Rosa. Chandler hits harder than both of them and she’s improving from fight to fight. The only thing dumont has improved is her jab

dumont is super low volume and gets cage pushed against virtually everyone, including the 135er aspen Ladd

chandler also has a good top game and nasty gnp if she can get dumont down which many have also done. Dumont does have good get ups though

Dog or pass for me

 

[GoldenWolf87]

haven't yet done any research on "Dudakova"
Might take a small sparkle on the underdog instated.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Mckinney and Duraev are solid underdogs imo. I think they should be favorites

I always usually try chasing after the underdogs..
I prefer them both at underdogs odds lol.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I know longer see Dumont , Azat or Viktoriya as near free.

Perception change once i dived further deep.

 

[King-Ryan]

I thought she looked bigger against Julija, her back in particular. Looks like she’s had proper time to cycle

I would never bet dumont as a favorite against a girl who hits like a man. Dumont is chinny. She was knocked out by Megan Anderson and dropped bad in her last fight Vs Rosa. Chandler hits harder than both of them and she’s improving from fight to fight. The only thing dumont has improved is her jab

dumont is super low volume and gets cage pushed against virtually everyone, including the 135er aspen Ladd

chandler also has a good top game and nasty gnp if she can get dumont down which many have also done. Dumont does have good get ups though

Dog or pass for me

Yeah I can't blame you for feeling that way. I can't vouch for Dumont being a good play. This fight will tell us alot about Chandler.

 

[Omegaboy13]

Some of my current thoughts for this card.

I'm on Munoz... nothing crazy I just like his wrestling and I don't think his striking is worse then Deaton's either. He looks ripped and in good shape on his IG so I'm not as worried about the layoff.

Nam/Maksum... I'm not seeing the justificstion for Maksum to be -425 and growing here... I'm aware of Nam's flaws/age and Maksum has good grappling but Nam has good TDD and I favor Nam on the feet by quiet a bit... Nam KO'd Ode and I thought he won Rd1 against Silva. I've already sprinkled Nam ITD +650 and RD1 +1400... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which will still be nice plus money

Dumont/Chandler... I'm on Norma small here... I don't feel great about it but Chandler is a 135er, most of her pro fights were at 135 and her original UFC debut was supposed to be at 135... Chandler is pretty green especially on the feet and I don't think she will be able to bully a big strong Durmont the way she did to 135lber Stoliarenko

Thinking about playing Padro ML -110 or Fight dosent start RD 2 -110

Like someone else just said I also like Lingo here... Waiting for his +3.5 to come out which should still be very playable odds.

Park ML and Park RD3 sprinkle intrest me but I haven't taped this one yet

Any thoughts?

I'm with you on Nam. Mak had a very padded resume. If you look at fighters who are actually worth a shit, he's really closer to 8-0 against halfway decent people. Hard to get behind Nam though. He always seems to blow it when it matters. I like Nam in this fight, but not enough to put him in a parlay or throw big money on him.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

There is one interesting bet odd i am looking add for M. Bueno Silva
Silva by Sub and KO are both tempting..

I am fading Holly.

 

[PuertoRican]

This is the best card of the year and yet there's so little discussion...

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I just made some stupid plays, but I have feeling Holm gets the late finish in this one. I think she could put on a wrestling clinic and then finish a gassed Silva late. I know she has been a decision machine, but I think she takes this.
Didn't bet big, but the odds are of course pretty good so will be a nice payday if R3, R4 or R5 hits.

Gut feeling, based on nothing.

 

[PuertoRican]

I just made some stupid plays, but I have feeling Holm gets the late finish in this one. I think she could put on a wrestling clinic and then finish a gassed Silva late. I know she has been a decision machine, but I think she takes this.
Didn't bet big, but the odds are of course pretty good so will be a nice payday if R3, R4 or R5 hits.

Gut feeling, based on nothing.

I like Holm to win, but I think the best way to play her is a live bet after Round 1. Silva will be at her best in the first round or two, and Holm's price will only improve after R1 cuz she won't be able to hold Silva against the cage while she's at her strongest.

I originally wasn't gonna add any pre-fight bets, but I decided to add Prado KO/TKO +206, since the fight is expected ITD and Prado ML is -120. I got the worst odds possible, but it's still juicy enough for me as long as it hits.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I just made some stupid plays, but I have feeling Holm gets the late finish in this one. I think she could put on a wrestling clinic and then finish a gassed Silva late. I know she has been a decision machine, but I think she takes this.
Didn't bet big, but the odds are of course pretty good so will be a nice payday if R3, R4 or R5 hits.

Gut feeling, based on nothing.

Good luck i am still not to sure how i feel on that bet odd i posted 15.00 for Silva.
No offense not the greatest fight card.

I am looking forward to next week.

Next week's fight card is looking decent.